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561. The Pivot is Dead, Long Live the Pivot

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
While it hasn’t always been pretty or (gasp) consistent, US Asia policy under the Trump administration is, with one major exception, pretty much where the Obama administration left it. America’s Asian alliances remain the foundation of its security strategy and “our one-China policy” has been reaffirmed. Even regarding North Korea, the objective – bringing Kim Jong Un “to his senses” – remains the same, although the approach seems to display less patience. The exception centers on the one promise that Trump (regrettably in our view) has kept: abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On economic policy more generally, the promised trade war with China has (thus far) failed to materialize since “the Chinese have made some improvements on currency in recent months”; okay, Chinese currency manipulation actually stopped several years ago, but you get the point. While the search for a new buzz word to replace the “pivot” or “rebalance” continues, the vice president and secretaries of State and Defense have been to the region and the White House has confirmed President Trump’s plan to attend a trio of regional summits this fall. Asia remains a high priority region, for better and for worse.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

562. Mixed Messages

Author:
Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In its early months, the Trump administration has devoted little attention to Southeast Asia and US relations with the region have generally followed a trajectory set by the Obama administration. The US continued naval operations in the South China Sea and joint exercises with most ASEAN states with US air and naval forces rotating through bases in northern Australia and the Philippines and deploying from Singapore. There have been mixed signals between Manila and Washington. With the ASEAN states and China moving toward completion of a Code of Conduct (COC) on rules of engagement in the South China Sea, it is hoped that the new document would be “legally binding,” but little specific about its provisions has been published. Following Washington’s abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Hanoi has sought to alleviate its disappointment, saying that it understands the US need to create more jobs and that it will try to accommodate Washington in future trade negotiations. During the Obama administration’s two terms (2009-2016), the president’s “rebalance” to Asia featured Southeast Asia as its centerpiece. President Obama made 11 separate trips to the Asia-Pacific, visiting a total of 14 countries, nine of which were members of ASEAN. His secretaries of state and defense also made multiple journeys to the region. Among many successes during these years were US accession to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, participation in the East Asia Summit for the first time in 2011, the establishment of the first diplomatic mission to ASEAN, and realization of the historic transition to democracy in Myanmar. The United States also increased the deployment of ships and aircraft to the region, particularly in Singapore, the Philippines, and Australia. In Obama’s final year, the US began distributing resources under the Maritime Security Initiative to assist Southeast Asian countries with their maritime domain awareness by transferring patrol vessels and surveillance aircraft as well as creating a system whereby these countries could share information on the region’s maritime security picture. While it’s still early for the Trump administration, there have been virtually no policy statements dealing with Southeast Asia, nor at this time (April) has the State Department chosen a deputy secretary – the number two position – or a permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Direction from Washington for a region that was so important during the preceding eight years seems to be absent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

563. Adrift Without Dialogue

Author:
David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In February, President Trump told President Xi Jinping that the US would honor its one-China policy. This eased concern that the new administration would radically change US policy toward Taiwan, but it remains unclear how the Trump administration will deal with specific Taiwan issues. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have continued to be in an unstable but calm state in the early months of 2017. The formal channels of dialogue remain closed and no significant effort has been made to reopen them. In the meantime, practical issues have been dealt with, sometimes constructively but often in ways that exacerbate the lack of trust. This unstable and risky situation will likely continue in the months ahead.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

564. Turkish Civilian Capacity in Post-conflict Scenarios: The Cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo

Author:
Federico Donelli and Alessia Chiriatti
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The disintegration of Yugoslavia has created huge instability in the Balkans since 1990. The post-conflicts challenges are still now on the table. Turkey continues to consider the Western Balkan countries as a priority: its activism reflects the multi-directionality of JDP’s policy. The paper will be oriented to enquire on Turkish networks in the Western Balkans. The approach will be historical and political, with an analysis of bilateral relations from the end of the Ottoman Empire, till ‘90s wars and the arrival of JDP on government. Throughout the analysis of two case studies - Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo- this article aims to highlight the application of the Turkey’s soft power in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, State Formation, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Asia, Kosovo, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

565. Continuity or Change in Turkish Foreign Policy? Analyzing the Policy Fluctuations during the Justice and Development Party Era

Author:
Murat Ulgul
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
For decades, change in Turkish foreign policy has remained as “a neglected phenomenon” in the literature while continuity is explained with two main pillars: Westernization and preference for the status quo. The topic started gaining popularity at the end of 2000s when some conflicts of interest emerged between Turkey and its traditional partners. Scholars mainly explained this change as the result of the new Turkish leadership under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). While the debate in this period provided extensive literature on the subject, the arguments created could not explain the policy fluctuations during the AKP era. In this article, the change in AKP foreign policy is examined during three time periods that show different characteristics in terms of domestic and international opportunities/constraints. It is argued that while Westernization still remains an important pillar in Turkish foreign policy, the main change seems to be in Turkey’s traditional preference for the status quo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Arab Spring, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

566. An Outlook for the Domestic and Foreign Policies of the New Administration of the US --Observations over the President-Elect Trump before Inauguration

Author:
Pangoal Institution
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
On November 9, 2016, defeating Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump was elected as the 45th American president. At the same time, the Republican Party secured majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Since November 9, 2016, Trump and his team have been working day and night on issues including personnel, policies, public opinions, and foreign relations to prepare for the inauguration on January 20, 2017. During this time, Trump has touched upon the China issue more frequently and casually compared to his predecessors, and with distinct deal mentality. It has raised more uncertainties in China about the relationship with the US after Trump takes office. The prospect we have to be concerned about is that the No.1 threat confronting China-US relationship in the future is the dominance of offensive realism and antagonistic behavior. And zero-sum pattern is starting to encroach trade and economic ties which have long been the cornerstone of the bilateral relations. The following is an observation report on what the president-elect has done and said since he won the election. All of the content is based on public information and is hereby presented to you. We hope it can help readers gain clear thinking on where America and China-US relationship are going and also offer informative reading to people who care about the bilateral relations. The report is divided into six parts, aiming to present in a systematic and comprehensive way all the preparation made by Donald Trump and his team and forecast the Trump administration’s way of governance. Due to limited space, we have to focus only on issues closely related to the interests of China. We appreciate your understanding.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Donald Trump, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

567. The United States and Future Policy Options in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Taiwan is a core interest in U.S. foreign policy. Its values, technological prowess, and geostrategic position align with foundational American values and priorities for the region, making it a crucial U.S. partner in the Asia Pacific. As such, ensuring a stable and positive future for Taiwan as a democracy and a primary contributor to the global economy and international community is a high priority. This monograph concludes that a more objective representation of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait may better serve long-term U.S. interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Global Political Economy, and International Community
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

568. Setting Priorities for Nuclear Modernization

Author:
Lawrence Korb and Adam Mount
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
n the next decade, the United States will have to make decisions that will shape its nuclear arsenal for much of the next century. Nearly every missile, submarine, aircraft, and warhead in the U.S. arsenal is nearing the end of its service life and must be replaced. As Congress and the Obama administration continue to wrestle with the effects of sequestration on projected levels of defense spending, the U.S. Department of Defense has begun a series of procurement programs that will nearly double the amount the country spends on its nuclear deterrent in the next decade compared to what it spent in the past decade. Over the next 30 years, the cost of the nuclear deterrent could pass $1 trillion and crowd out defense and domestic investments needed to keep the United States strong and competitive. In addition, it could undermine U.S. credibility on the issue of nuclear proliferation—especially when it comes to dealing with regimes such as Russia, China, and North Korea.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

569. The Crisis in Turkish-Russian Relations

Author:
Soli Ozel
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
On November 24, 2015, despite multiple warnings from Turkish air patrols, a Russian SU-24 aircraft that violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet. The Russians denied that they were ever in Turkish airspace, while NATO corroborated the Turkish version. According to Turkish sources, there were repeated warnings for five minutes—which the Russians claimed they never received—and Turkey’s rules of engagement were well known to the Russians. One pilot was rescued by Russian special forces, but Turkmen rebels—trained and supplied by Turkey—on the ground across the border in Syria shot and killed the other as he was parachuting from the plane.* Turkish authorities immediately approached NATO for support, a move that reportedly infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin, who called the downing of the plane “a stab in the back.” The Russian military claimed that the Turkish action was preplanned—an accusation the Turkish General Staff denied. After initially reiterating that its rules of engagement were clear, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed sadness at the downing of the plane and his hope that the crisis could be resolved.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

570. Emerging Threats and New Trends in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Galip Dalay
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Turkey’s foreign policy during most of the republican era was informed by the security imperatives of the Cold War and the crises that ensued from the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. These influences were coupled with the country’s republican elites crafting Turkey’s identity along the lines of strict secularism, militant nationalism, and a western orientation. As a status quo power, Turkey looked at its neighborhood through the lens of security, becoming highly sensitive to threats of all varieties and seeing itself in a hostile environment—if not surrounded by outright enemies. Upon coming to power in 2002, successive Justice and Development Party, or AKP, governments tried to change this understanding and minimize areas of friction with Turkey’s neighbors. During the early years, they adopted a utilitarian approach, attempting to develop mutual interests and opportunities and to create a degree of interdependency, particularly through economic exchange. This was expressed through then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with the neighbors” principle, which provided the intellectual architecture for much of Turkey’s foreign policy. The AKP sought to build an “economy first” approach, which it would later hope to leverage for political purposes. From the beginning of the AKP’s second term in 2007 to the early days of the Arab uprisings in late 2010 and into 2011, the party gradually expanded its ambitions and policy toward the Middle East through attempts to achieve regional integration and, later, to build an order centered on Turkey. All of these attempts sought to build on economic relations toward economic integration and political cooperation and were very much in line with the neofunctionalist approach to regional integration theories.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia