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41. A Study on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade and the Issues of Regional Economic Integration in Central Asia

Author:
Kodirjon Maxamadaminovich Umarkulov
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
At the current stage of globalization, Central Asia (CA) is becoming a focal point for the political and economic interests of global forces because of its rich natural resources and critical strategic position. From this point of view, the CA countries need to form a joint development strategy for solving regional problems and a strong mechanism for countering the main political and economic conflicts in the region. At the same time, the countries of the region need to choose the path of joint development in order to increase the efficiency of their internal capacities and resources, adapt the domestic social and economic infrastructure to modern requirements and improve the living standards of the population. This is directly related to the progress of regional economic integration in CA. Through this integration, the economies of the countries in the region could complement each other and ensure a high level of development in mutual trade and industrial development. However, there are some obstacles and problems hindering the development of economic integration in the region. Most particularly, the weak infrastructure in the region, its economic-geographical isolation from world markets, administrative barriers and political instability hinder trade between the countries of CA. From this point of view, this study focuses on the problems of general and cross-border trade in CA countries, and the opportunities for economic integration in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

42. Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

Author:
Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, and Heiwai Tang
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump's "Trade War" against China.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

43. Export Crops and Civil Conflict

Author:
Joseph Felter and Benjamin Crost
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Many governments and international experts consider a move towards high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction. Little is known, however, about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict- affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop intensity to provide evidence that increases in the value of a major export crop exacerbate conflict violence in the Philippines. We further show that this effect is concentrated in areas with low baseline insurgent control. In areas with high insurgent control, a rise in crop value leads to a decrease in violence but a further expansion of rebel-controlled territory. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents gain strength from extorting agricultural exporters and that insurgent strength has a non-monotonic effect on conflict violence because strong insurgent groups can establish local monopolies of violence.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Violence, and Exports
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

44. The Impact of Trading with China on Botswana’s Economy

Author:
Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of trading with China on Botswana’s domestic and third markets. The paper also assesses the structure and magnitude of Botswana-China bilateral trade. Botswana’s trade balance with China has been widening over the past decade, with Botswana mainly exporting primary products and importing intermediate and capital goods, which are mainly used as inputs in the development of infrastructure in the country. The increased import penetration from China is associated with Botswana’s reduced total manufacturing output. China’s Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) exports gained market share from Botswana’s TCF exports in the third markets, that is South Africa. There is a need to consider ways of enhancing Botswana’s export competitiveness and there are also lessons to be learnt from China in relation to enhancing productivity in the TCF and other exporting industries.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Botswana

45. Welfare Analysis of Changing Food Prices: A Nonparametric Examination of Export Ban on Rice in India (pdf)

Author:
Ben Groom and Mehroosh Tak
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
During the world food crisis of 2007-08, the price of staples soared rapidly. Higher food price impacts poor households more as they spend approximately three quarters of their income on food. Together rice and wheat provide more than 50% of the calorific intake in India. Apart from providing food security, millions of poor and small farmers depend on rice for their livelihoods. Using Indian Consumer Household Expenditure surveys for the years 2007-08 and 2009-10 the paper analyses the welfare generated by a ban on export of rice by the Indian government. The paper finds that the net impact of the ban on export of rice was positive, as it was able to cushion the Indian population (87% of whom are net consumers) from the adverse effects of the crisis. It also found that the poor in India aren’t homogeneous in nature. The majority of the rice-producing households that stand to gain from increased prices are relatively poor farmers. At the same time, the poor households that do not cultivate rice are most affected by price increase, as their budget share of rice is higher than richer households, who are more resilient to price rise. In particular, the wage labourers are affected significantly.
Topic:
Agriculture, Poverty, Food Security, Inequality, Exports, and Welfare
Political Geography:
India and Asia

46. Will Europe Fall into a Japanese-Style Stagnation Trap?

Author:
Peter Harrold
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Can Europe avoid falling in to a Japanese-style stagnation trap? In this type of trap, we see a repeated cycle of a financial crisis leading to a fiscal crisis, leading to a decline in consumer and investor confidence, and a resulting fall in demand. The decline in growth that inevitably follows simply causes the cycle to repeat itself. In theory, this should lead to improved competitiveness, but in Japan the forces of decline outweighed any boost in export demand. This E-brief is based on Peter Harrold’s presentation at the CASE 2011 International Conference on "Europe 2000: Exploring the Future of European Integration" held on November 18-19, 2011.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Crisis Management, Economic Policy, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

47. The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Author:
Brett Berger and Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Chinese exports have boomed, increasing far faster than GDP growth. What can account for this explosion? Our paper uses finely detailed Chinese export data (8-digit HS codes) combined with U.S. trade data to explore this question. Although exchange rate policy clearly boosted the trade surplus, and the structure of the economy, e.g. abundant cheap labor, encouraged investment, these alone cannot account for the changing composition and acceleration of exports. We find that the growth in exports is most likely a product of effective Chinese industrial policy and fortuitous timing. The detailed trade data reveal that key “new” technology goods, such as cell phones, LCD screens, and laptops played a critical role. Finally, we use the data to examine the relationship between Chinese exports and global manufacturing, in particular U.S. manufacturing employment. We find that increased Chinese competition in both domestic and U.S. export markets likely lowered U.S. manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2007. Chinese policy is not, however, wholly responsible. Some job losses, such as in textile production, were no doubt the result of China’s natural comparative advantages, while other U.S. job losses are attributable to relatively low investment and slow GDP growth in the United States following the 2001 recession.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

48. Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?

Author:
Shaghil Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled laregely from imported inputs ("processed" exports) and "non- processed" exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurredoverthepastthreeyears. Theresultsshowthatgreaterexchangerate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed ex- ports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater thanunity. WhenthesourceoftheincreaseintheChineserealexchangerateis appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the e§ect on processing exports is positive but insignÖcant, while the e§ect on non-processing exports is signiÖcantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against Chinaís advanced-economy trading partners, the e§ects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactualsimulationsbasedontheestimatedmodelstronglysug- gest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate áexibility could contribute to lowering Chinaís huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
China and Asia