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11. The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The world’s two most powerful countries – the U.S. and China – are increasingly at odds over several issues. The winner of November’s U.S. presidential election should strive to contain the tensions in this difficult relationship in service of stability in the wider world.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12. Techno-Realism: Navigating New Challenges in the Contemporary Role of Technology in Politics

Author:
Isti Marta Sukma
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to introduce a new theory, techno-realism, which is derived from political realism, to help comprehend the complex connections between technology and politics. According to techno-realism, technology serves as a means of power, with the innate drive for survival in human nature shaping the formation of identity. The research question at the core of this study revolves around the extent to which technology influences contemporary political science and whether it truly serves as a means of power. Three concepts are introduced: identity establishment, technology as the central source of power, and non-state actors in politics. The primary case study focuses on the complexity of the issue in Xinjiang, examining the application of cyberpolitics in the region. The second case study explores technology’s role in Indonesia’s political power struggle, as evidenced by its 2024 elections and the abuse of information and electronic transaction law effectiveness to control freedom of speech. Additionally, this paper introduces a case study on the Indo-Pacific regional power dynamics in confronting “digital authoritarianism”. This paper underscores the imperative for a new theoretical framework, adapted from political realism, which despite being subject to considerable criticism, has the potential for further development, placing technology at the core of analysis. Recognising the central roles of technology, identity formation, and non-state actors, techno-realism offers valuable insights for navigating complex political landscapes and informing strategic responses to emerging challenges. However, further research is needed to understand completely its applicability and limitations across different contexts, as demonstrated by the case studies presented in this paper.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Elections, Realism, and Techno-realism
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Asia, Global Focus, and Xinjiang

13. A Dialogue with Chairman of the Taiwan People's Party, Dr. Ko Wen-je

Author:
Wen-je Ko and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Ko Wen-je is chairperson of the Taiwan People’s Party and a possible candidate in the 2024 Taiwan presidential election. He was mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022. Before entering politics, Dr. Ko was a leading transplant surgeon at National Taiwan University College of Medicine.
Topic:
Politics and Elections
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

14. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:
Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

15. Why Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election is Wide Open

Author:
Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Shortly after Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered the worst loss in its 37-year history, Nikkei Asia Review published an article entitled “Taiwan’s KMT has a mountain to climb for 2024 presidential race” that cautioned not to read too much into the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) success in the local elections last November (Nikkei Asia, November 29, 2022). The piece argued that voters still perceive the KMT as being too close to China, a liability in a national election focused on cross-Strait relations, and hamstrung by uncertainty about who should serve as its presidential candidate next year. Although the KMT confronts significant challenges heading into Taiwan’s 2024 elections, the difficulties the party faces should not be overestimated. Rather than a mountain, the KMT has a modest hill to climb. Over the past 22 years, Taiwan’s national politics have swung like a pendulum, favoring the DPP from 2000-2008, the KMT from 2008-2016 and the DPP again since 2016. Taiwanese voters, like their counterparts in other thriving democracies, sometimes vote for change even if they are not enamored with a particular candidate. Since Taiwan fully democratized in 1996, no political party has won three consecutive presidential terms, with DPP and KMT presidents alternating every eight years. President Tsai Ing-wen has avoided the kinds of issues, corruption scandals and major popular demonstrations against her policies that undid the presidencies of her predecessors, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, leading to opposition wins in the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections, respectively. Nevertheless, Tsai has been dramatically weakened by the DPP’s crushing defeat in the November 2022 local elections (Jamestown Foundation, November 29, 2022). She stepped down as DPP party chair after the elections as the party has taken a hit for its many pandemic missteps, a flagging economy and a contentious cross-Strait policy (United Daily News, November 27, 2022). The DPP’s likely candidate in the 2024 election, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, while personally popular, would represent continuity with Tsai’s policies (China Brief, March 3). Together, these factors will likely make the 2024 race the closest since 2004, when the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu eked out a victory against the KMT’s Lien Chan and James Soong of the People First Party (PFP) by a margin of just 0.22 percent (Taipei Times, March 21, 2004).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

16. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns

Author:
Kai-Ping Huang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
Topic:
Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

17. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections

Author:
Jungkun Seo
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

18. Taiwan Update: Local Elections and Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Hungdah Su Dean, Yeong-Kang Chen, Min-Hua Huang, Eric Yu, Yeh-Chung Lu, Andrew Nathan, and Thomas J. Christensen
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
A high-level academic delegation will update our audience on current political events in Taiwan and developments in cross-strait relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

19. COVID-19 and Voter Turnout in Europe and in Korea

Author:
Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Even while we are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, cyclical events arrive mercilessly as scheduled. While some of them are held virtually (i.e., online), some cannot be completely virtualized, at least as of now, including national elections. A major risk in holding an election during a pandemic is the increase of contagion due to the gathering of people in polling stations and campaign events. The opposite direction of causality, that is, from contagion to voter turnout, is another serious, but much less recognized, risk, because voters may refrain from voting due to health concerns. This Brief reviews some of the empirical studies on the relation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and voter turnout in recent elections in Europe and Korea. It also discusses their implications for election administration during pandemic.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, COVID-19, and Turnout
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

20. South Korea's Critical Moment in Digital Currency Policymaking: Between Regulating Cryptocurrencies and Launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

Author:
June Park
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Why is South Korea pilot-testing its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and what made it shift from non-issuance to consideration? This paper investigates the Bank of Korea (BOK)’s CBDC-related developments amid the geopolitical contest between the U.S. and China. It examines the Moon Jae-in administration’s defiance of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the BOK’s sudden shift from non-issuance to potential issuance, which led to expedited research, development, and pilot-testing of CBDCs. As in the case of the digital yuan, the BOK envisions a hybrid architecture for the digital won, wherein central banks and associated partner institutions are CBDC distributors, though they are distinguished by placing the digital won on distributed ledger technology rather than by centrally controlling it. However, South Korea’s previously rash decision to forego DeFi under an undemocratic process has deprived the country of the time and opportunity to develop new innovations as a leading country in the digital frontier. By sticking only to digitalizing centralized finance, the country now aims to be in “standby” mode for its CBDC launch if and when required, so as not to fall behind in digital financial architecture. This paper scrutinizes the South Korean government’s moves on crypto and CBDCs and argues that 1) the Moon administration has shown incapability in addressing DeFi amid the crypto boom and bust, and 2) the BOK’s shift from non-issuance to potential issuance of the digital won is driven by its interest to uphold central bank independence amid swaying geopolitics between the U.S. and China and an unpredictable upcoming presidential election in South Korea.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Finance, Cryptocurrencies, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America