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51. Italy Joins the Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Interests, and Drivers

Author:
Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In March 2019, Italy and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) signed a broad and comprehensive, albeit not legally binding, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for Italy to join the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This has triggered a significant debate—in Brussels as well as in Washington—about whether this decision signalled an Italian shift away from its historical pro-European and pro-Atlantic position, to a more nuanced position open to deepening strategic ties with China. The MoU is not definite proof of such a shift, and the Italian government has denied any strategic change. However, Italy is the first major European country, and the first Group of Seven (G7) member, to formalize its participation with the BRI project. As such, this development is particularly remarkable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

52. Arrests in Poland Contribute to the International Controversies Surrounding Huawei

Author:
John Dotson
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The December 1, 2018, arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, and the arrest of another Huawei employee in Poland, come on the heels of a series of escalating measures—or measures under consideration—by governments in North America and the Pacific Region to restrict the use of Chinese-manufactured telecommunications equipment. Such measures are now increasingly under consideration in Europe, as well, with major implications not only for the international profile of companies such as Huawei, but also for the construction of advanced communications infrastructure throughout much of the world.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Economy, and Research
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Poland, North America, and United States of America

53. Tariffs will ultimately harm US economy

Author:
Dong Yan and Zang Chengwei
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
That Vice-Premier Liu He talked with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the phone on Monday raises hope that China and the United States would resume the bilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

54. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
Topic:
Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

55. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
Topic:
Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China and Asia

56. Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening up?

Author:
Fang Cai
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China’s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years haveled to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists areobligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in thisarea has positively assessed and documented China’s successful experiences. However,theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine tojudge China’s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historicallogic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chineseexperience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on theexperiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chroniclesthe process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus betweenthem. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation andallocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms havespurred China’s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity.The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for furtherreform are discussed.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

57. From 'Rebalance to Asia' to 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific': The Development of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership

Author:
Bich T. Tran
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Under the Obama administration’s Rebalance to Asia, Vietnam gradually gained importance in U.S. foreign policy as the two countries formed a “comprehensive partnership” in 2013. Despite the Trump administration’s America First policy, the United States prioritizes its partnerships with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries in its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. While a common concern about China’s behavior in the South China Sea has facilitated the growth of U.S.-Vietnam relations, the foundation of the relationship is cooperation on Vietnam War legacy issues. The two countries have made remarkable progress in advancing diplomatic, economic, and defense ties regardless of remaining challenges. The year 2020 would be ideal for the United States and Vietnam to upgrade the relationship to a “strategic partnership”: it marks the 25th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral relations, Hanoi’s ASEAN chairmanship, and the start of Vietnam’s term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and United States of America

58. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Inroads into Central Asia: Comparative Analysis of the Economic Cooperation Roadmaps for Uzbekistan

Author:
Timur Dadabaev
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China, Japan, and South Korea have regarded Central Asia as a new Asian frontier in their foreign policies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With time, their policies evolved into regionbuilding initiatives exemplified by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue Forum, and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum. This paper raises the following research questions: What are the areas of interest for China, Japan, and Korea in their relations with Central Asian states and Uzbekistan in particular? What are the patterns of agenda setting in establishing intergovernmental cooperation? What are the particular projects that these states initiate? What are the objectives of projects initiated within these areas of interest? How competitive or complementary are these projects of China, Japan, and Korea? Throughout, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean “Silk Road” roadmaps with Uzbekistan are discussed to highlight their similarities and differences.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Central Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan

59. US-Southeast Asia Trade is Increasing, but so are Deficits

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Conventional narratives are either supported by facts or overcome them. Recent increased trade flows between the US and the ten economies of Southeast Asia suggest that the predominant narrative of the commercial displacement of the United States by China in Southeast Asia is incorrect. However, the United States’s growing trade deficits and shrinking surpluses with Southeast Asia do bolster an American mercantilist narrative that bilateral deficits are an economic loss for the US caused by Southeast Asian governments’ unfair trade policies.
Topic:
Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

60. Domestic Politics Force India's Withdrawal from RCEP and Broader Trade Disengagement

Author:
Amitendu Palit
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations concluded at the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019. Fifteen RCEP members, including the ten-ASEAN countries, and Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, agreed to commence preparation of the legal text of the agreement for signing in 2020. India was the only member to opt out, citing significant unresolved outstanding issues. India’s decision was surprising as it actively participated in the negotiations that lasted for 29 rounds and went on for more than six years since beginning in 2013. Domestic pressures forced Prime Minister Modi to withdraw India from RCEP at the last minute. It also points to disengagement becoming the prominent character of India’s trade policy as domestic protectionist interests successfully undermine outward-oriented economic visions.
Topic:
Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia