Number of results to display per page
Search Results
792. What Went Right in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
793. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
794. Challenges for a Post-Election Philippines
- Author:
- Catherine E. Dalpino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The outcome of national elections in the Philippines on May 10 is still to be determined. For the past three years, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has governed as an appointed head of state in the wake of President Joseph Estrada's forced resignation on corruption charges. Her administration inherited a country in crisis, and it began the critical process of economic stabilization and growth. Economic indicators in the past two years have shown modest progress. In this interim period, the Philippines has been a steadfast ally of the United States in the war against terrorism. These fragile gains could be imperiled if the Philippines does not complete the electoral process in an expeditious and credible manner. Whatever the outcome of the polls, the winner will have little time to lose in addressing a number of short- and long-term problems in the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia
795. Economic Prospects for Kaliningrad: Between EU Enlargement and Russia's Integration into the World Economy
- Author:
- Evgeny Vinokurov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Kaliningrad oblast of Russia is currently an important focal point of discussions between the European Union and Russia. Although small in terms of geography and population, Kaliningrad has grown in importance due to the EU enlargement process. Since the break–up of the Soviet Union, the oblast has become an exclave of Russia, and it is now set to also become an enclave within the EU. This paper examines the state of Kaliningrad's economy and trade. The economic crisis that took place in Russia in the 1990s had severe consequences for Kaliningrad, as old patterns of production and trade were disrupted. Since 1999, however, the regional economy has grown with impressive speed. Kaliningrad's Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status has played a crucial role in determining its new patterns of production and trade specialisation. The paper argues that the SEZ regime has made the region's economic growth faster but also vulnerable.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
796. CERI: Regional integration in Asia since China's entry into the WTO
- Author:
- Diana Hochraich
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries - which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products - have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China - the world's workshop - has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
797. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common basket peg system and suggests that East Asia should seek to create an Asian-version of regional monetary system modeled on the EMS.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Asia
798. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'
- Author:
- Takuji Kinkyo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
799. Is China "Exporting Deflation"?
- Author:
- Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi, and John W. Schindler
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In the past few years, observers increasingly have pointed to China as a source of downward pressure on global prices. This paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the inflation performance of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global prices has been, while non-negligible, fairly modest. On a priori grounds, our theoretical analysis suggests that China's economy is still too small relative to the world economy to have much effect on global inflation: a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts that effect at about 1/3 percentage point in recent years. In terms of the empirical evidence, we identify a statistically significant effect of U.S. imports from China on U.S. import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in U.S. GDP, the ultimate impact on the U.S. consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on U.S. producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 1/4 percentage point or less on average, similar to the prediction of our theoretical model.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
800. Economic survey of Korea, 2004
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Korea has been one of the fastest growing economies in the OECD area over the past five years, with an annual growth rate of about 6 per cent. Such rapid growth, which has lifted per capita income to two-thirds of the OECD average, reflects Korea's underlying dynamism and its progress in implementing a wide-ranging reform programme in the wake of the 1997 crisis. However, the recession in 2003 – which was due in part to structural problems in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors – indicates that the reform agenda is unfinished. Sustaining rapid growth over the medium term as the contribution from inputs of labour and capital slows requires further progress in structural reform, particularly in the labour market and in the corporate and financial sectors, accompanied by appropriate macroeconomic policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea