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701. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

702. Negotiating the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott, Scott C. Bradford, and Thomas Moll
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Five years ago the Institute published Free Trade between Korea and the United States? by Inbom Choi and Jeffrey J. Schott, which analyzed the potential benefits and costs of pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). At the time, neither government had vetted the idea in bilateral consultations, though some business groups in each country—and some members of the US Congress—had voiced support for deepening US-Korea economic ties through an FTA.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Korea

703. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

704. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

705. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

706. Comments on China as a Regional Player

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

707. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus

Author:
Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

708. The Rule of Law in China: Incremental Progress

Author:
Jamie P. Horsley
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Western media reporting on China does not give the impression of a rule of law country. We read of frequent corruption scandals, a harsh criminal justice system still plagued by the use of torture, increasingly violent and widespread social unrest over unpaid wages, environmental degradation and irregular takings of land and housing. Outspoken academics, activist lawyers, investigative journalists and other champions of the disadvantaged and unfortunate are arrested, restrained or lose their jobs. Entrepreneurs have their successful businesses expropriated by local governments in seeming violation of the recently added Constitutional guarantee to protect private property. Citizens pursue their grievances more through extra-judicial avenues than in weak and politically submissive courts. Yet China's economy gallops ahead, apparently confounding conventional wisdom that economic development requires the rule of law.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

709. Interview with Senator John Edwards

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Senator John Edwards was the Democratic 2004 nominee for Vice President (Senator John Kerry's running mate) and a one-term former Democratic Senator from North Carolina. He defeated the incumbent Republican Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina's 1998 Senate election. Senator Edwards is now the Director of the Center on Poverty, Work, and Opportunity at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Senator Edwards addressed the Asia Society on The Future of US-China Relations as part of the series entitled "American Political Leaders on the Future of US Relations with Asia". Senator Edwards addressed the Asia Society on October 31st, and gave this interview to Nermeen Shaikh following his speech.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, and North Carolina

710. Sustaining Economic Growth While Combating Social Challenges in Asia

Author:
Tom Vilsack
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
VISHAKHA DESAI: Good evening. And welcome to the Asia Society. Most of you know me but in case you don't, I'm Vishakha Desai, and I have the honor of being the president of this wonderful organization. It's my great pleasure and honor to welcome all of you for a very special evening with Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa, who is going to be talking to us about sustaining economic growth while combating social challenges in Asia. I must say, this topic of growth and social challenges was very much something that we discussed almost all day today because we had another highly successful business conference on India's financial markets. And one thing that kept coming up is how the idea of sustaining growth is going to actually balance out with the ideas of working with social as well as public health challenges and education challenges in places like India and China.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia