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91. Impact of China Slowdown on India

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna and Ankit Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

92. India: Meeting Energy Needs for Development While Addressing Climate Change

Author:
Radhika Khosla
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India is undergoing structural urban and economic transitions and has set ambitious policy targets to meet its rising energy needs for development. Expanding coal and renewables are two important pillars of this undertaking and, since 2008, climate protection is of increasing concern. India’s international engagements reflect these motivations of both energy security and climate change, where India is increasingly engaging in transfer of clean and efficient energy technologies to developing countries like itself.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Economic Growth, and Urban
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

93. The Blind Men and the Elephant: Making Sense of China's One Belt One Road Initiative

Author:
Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
China’s One Belt One Road Initiative has virtually been a lightning rod for divisive debate and a polarised narrative since it was announced in 2013. For India, it has been the proverbial elephant in the room, as it awkwardly swings between willful pretence and wishful erasure. The policy brief looks at the clues this initiative could offer on the likely drivers of China’s economic diplomacy in the region. There could be three signals for India to watch out for. A clear pointer is the growing role of domestic determinants in setting the direction and pace of China’s regional economic engagement. Another pointer could be China’s role in shaping and defining Asia’s new institutional financial architecture. Lastly, the initiative could be a signal of how China is likely to engage with the larger questions of benefit sharing, trade-offs and the allocation of risks and burdens in subregional Asia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

94. Dynamic Cities? The Role of Urban Local Governments in Improving Urban Service Delivery Performance in Africa and Asia

Author:
Jamie Boex, Ammar A. Malik, Devanne Brookins, and Ben Edwards
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Cities are engines of economic growth that provide spaces for social transformation and political inclusion. Their ability to deliver widely accessible and efficiently functioning public services drives productivity and sustains development. We design and apply an assessment framework to 42 cities in 14 African and Asian countries to better understand the functional, administrative, and political dimensions determining the quality and coverage of water, sanitation, and solid waste collection services. We find that urban local governments are constrained in their authority and discretion to deliver basic public services. Reforming intergovernmental institutional structures to better match responsibilities is essential for realizing cities’ full economic potential.
Topic:
Government, Water, Governance, International Development, Economic Growth, Urban, Sanitation, Services, and Cities
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Global Focus

95. Manila’s Pivot Toward Beijing

Author:
Peter Wood
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In mid-October, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visited China. His visit was marked by a recalibration in Philippine policy toward China and the announcement of economic and military “separation” from the United States.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, and United States of America

96. Macroeconomic Update: Early Signs of Rise in Investment

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna and Rajiv Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Economic recovery remains fragile on the back of a weak consumption demand. Sustained high growth will be achieved only with an upturn in the investment cycle. The government seems to have understood the importance of pump-priming the capex cycle directly through higher public capital expenditure and front loading the expenditure. While private investment remains muted due to stressed corporate balance sheets, weak external and domestic demand prospects and commercial banks’ cautious approach to expanding credit, there are some early signs that the private investment cycle is likely to turn around in the next six to nine months.
Topic:
Government, Economic Growth, Banks, Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

97. Working With a Rising India

Author:
Charles R. Kayne, Joseph S. Nye Jr., and Alyssa Ayres
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
“A rising India offers one of the most substantial opportunities to advance American national interests over the next two decades,” asserts a new Independent Task Force report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Working With a Rising India: A Joint Venture for the New Century. Over the past ten years, India, the world's largest democracy, has lifted more than 130 million people out of poverty. The country has rebounded from a recent economic growth slump, surpassing China this year to become the world's fastest-growing major economy. “If India can maintain its current growth rate, let alone attain sustained double digits, it has the potential over the next two to three decades to follow China on the path to becoming another $10 trillion economy,” notes the Task Force. With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's prioritization of economic growth and foreign policy revitalization, the country now has a window of opportunity to either make the necessary reforms or risk being left behind. “[India] will have to decide whether it wants to become a major part of global trade flows and deeply integrated into global supply chains. Doing so would boost India's efforts to grow its manufacturing sector and its economy; choosing not to will make that ambition harder to achieve.” Because India does not seek an alliance with the United States and closely guards its policy independence, U.S.-India relations will not resemble those Washington has with its conventional allies. For that reason, the Task Force recommends that “U.S. policymakers [should] explicitly emphasize a ‘joint-venture’ model for U.S.-India relations, focused on a slate of shared pursuits on which interests converge—and with clear mechanisms for coordinating and managing the known and expected disagreements.” The bipartisan Task Force is chaired by Charles R. Kaye, co-chief executive officer of the private equity firm Warburg Pincus and former chairman of the U.S.-India Business Council, and Joseph S. Nye Jr., distinguished service professor and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. Directed by CFR Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Alyssa Ayres, the Task Force is composed of sixteen prominent experts from government, academic, nonprofit, and other sectors.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

98. BRICS As a Transregional Advocacy Coalition

Author:
Roberta Rodrigues Marques de Silva and Eduardo Rodrigues Gomes
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
In this article, we aim to: (i) review the concepts adopted in the literature to explain the nature and behavior of the BRICS in international relations and (ii) present a new BRICS conceptualization proposal. From the first to the last Summit Conference, the BRICS explicitly advocates a multilateral world order through the inclusion of emerging countries in the base institutions of the Western order. For the elaboration of the article, we review the literature on BRICS, as well as the approach on regionalism proposed by Soderbaum to elaborate our conceptualization of the BRICS as an advocacy coalition.
Topic:
Development, Hegemony, Economic Growth, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

99. Education and Human Capital Development to Strengthen R & D Capacity in ASEAN

Author:
Tereso S. Tullao Jr. and Christopher James Cabuay
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief raises some policy issues regarding the capacity of the ASEAN region's education system in producing knowledge capital as it looks into the opportunities and challenges faced by the sector. This is critical for ASEAN to enable it to attain its quest to be a base for innovation. Among the issues that ASEAN has to confront in achieving this goal relate to the development of financing schemes for various types of education, improvement in the level of investments in research and development, and revisit of the way teaching is conducted in the 21st century, especially in certain disciplines crucial to engendering innovation for growth and development.
Topic:
Development, Education, Research, Economic Growth, Human Capital, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

100. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Author:
Jane T. Haltmaier
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia