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1. Xi’s New Year’s Speech Dismisses Difficulties

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On New Year’s Eve, a prerecorded address from Chinese President Xi Jinping was broadcast across the Party’s global network of official media outlets (Youtube, December 31, 2023). The speech is an annual tradition, delivered from behind a wooden desk in rhetoric that is at once paternalistic and triumphalist, in which Xi surveys the high points of the outgoing year and looks to the year ahead. The form of this year’s set-piece was no different, but the content departed from previous years in ways that are indicative of Xi’s shifting priorities, and the Party’s growing concerns about the state of the nation. The most significant section of the speech addressed the economic difficulties that China has weathered in the last year: “On the road ahead, trials and hardships [lit. ‘wind and rain’] will be the norm. Some enterprises are facing pressures, some of the masses are encountering difficulties finding jobs and meeting basic needs, and some places have hit by floods, typhoons, earthquakes, or other natural disasters (有风有雨是常态 。一些企业面临经营压力，一些群众就业、生活遇到困难，一些地方发生洪涝、台风、地震等自然灾害).”
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2. China Threats and the Exploitation of China Threats: The 2024 Taiwan General Election

Author:
Chin-en Wu
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The presidential and legislative elections took place in Taiwan on January 13, 2024. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP or so-called the green camp) selected Vice President Lai Ching-te as their candidate, who also serves as the party chairman. The opposing Chinese Nationalist (Kuomintang, KMT or so-called the blue camp) nominated the incumbent mayor of New Taipei, Hou Yu-ih, for the presidential candidacy. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP or so-called the white camp) chose its leader, former Taipei City mayor Ko Wen-je, as the presidential candidate. Despite initial plans for a joint campaign team between KMT and TPP, a final agreement was not reached. Lai’s victory marked a historic moment, representing the first time since the introduction of direct elections in 1996 that a party has won more than two consecutive presidential terms. Lai secured the presidency with 40% of the votes, followed by Hou with 34%, and Ko with 26%. Lai Ching-te and Hou Yu-yi are political figures within traditional political parties, lacking individual charisma, especially Hou Yu-yi, the former police-in-chief. Ko Wen-je, on the other hand, is a candidate with populist characteristics, appearing as a political outsider at the national level, free from the burden of past ruling records, providing an option beyond the blue-green divide. His interactive style sometimes resembles that of an internet celebrity, using straightforward language to comment on issues or point out social and political problems, in many cases without proposing feasible solutions to these problems. Young people prefer Ko’s relaxed, somewhat sarcastic way of communication. The other part of the general election is the legislative election. DPP gained 51 seats out of 113 seats and lose its majority in the parliament. KMT won 52 seats and become the largest party. TPP gained eight seats. The result makes the new DPP government a minority government.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Cross-Strait Relations
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

3. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability

Author:
Yih-Jye Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

4. Populist Dichotomy in Homogenous Societies: Internal and External Others in South Korean Politics

Author:
Nurcan Ceyhan
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
This study aims to analyze populism in the scope of South Korean politics. It addresses the contexts in which political actors adopt dichotomous populist discourses and the implications of populist mentality on the social fabric of country. Populism can be defined in three different dimensions as an exclusionary, divisive and marginalizing ideology, discourse politics and a mobilization strategy. It is typically built on others that take on various forms. In this framework, the recent reflections of populism in the case of South Korea are discussed through the dichotomies and constructed perceptions of the other. It seeks to shed light on how political actors in South Korea which is assumed to have a homogenous social structure, point out the internal and external others that constitute the essence of populist politics. While populism’s understanding of the other is relatively uniform in different contexts, in South Korea the reflections of populism are differentiated and concretely understood through a range of internal and external others. South Korea, which is considered as one of the successful democracies in East Asia, is also affected by populist wave. The reflections of populism in South Korea are not severe and can generally be expressed as soft populism. Moreover, it is predominantly effective on discourse politics and is not observed in the form of concrete policies.
Topic:
Populism, Domestic Politics, Discourse Analysis, and Others
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

5. The Future of K-Power: What South Korea Must Do After Peaking

Author:
Chung Min Lee
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
South Korea’s economic growth will almost certainly slow over the coming decades—but writing off the country’s potential would be a mistake.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

6. Xi Transforms the Party: Senior Cadre Selection in a New Era

Author:
Mark Stokes, Eric Lee, Cathy Fang, and Marek Haar
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Due to the challenges associated with the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) rise, anticipating who will lead the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a major concern. General Secretary Xi Jinping has reshuffled the deck around norms for succession. With old patterns woven out of the CCP’s banner, studying the new framework for promoting new senior leaders and the sub-factional politics lying underneath will aid in identifying who will lead the CCP and govern the PRC in the future. To that end, this report offers a summary of the leader promotion process within the CCP, a guide to identifying rising CCP leadership in the future, and a map of the current six sub-factions competing for Xi’s favor.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7. Why Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election is Wide Open

Author:
Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Shortly after Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered the worst loss in its 37-year history, Nikkei Asia Review published an article entitled “Taiwan’s KMT has a mountain to climb for 2024 presidential race” that cautioned not to read too much into the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) success in the local elections last November (Nikkei Asia, November 29, 2022). The piece argued that voters still perceive the KMT as being too close to China, a liability in a national election focused on cross-Strait relations, and hamstrung by uncertainty about who should serve as its presidential candidate next year. Although the KMT confronts significant challenges heading into Taiwan’s 2024 elections, the difficulties the party faces should not be overestimated. Rather than a mountain, the KMT has a modest hill to climb. Over the past 22 years, Taiwan’s national politics have swung like a pendulum, favoring the DPP from 2000-2008, the KMT from 2008-2016 and the DPP again since 2016. Taiwanese voters, like their counterparts in other thriving democracies, sometimes vote for change even if they are not enamored with a particular candidate. Since Taiwan fully democratized in 1996, no political party has won three consecutive presidential terms, with DPP and KMT presidents alternating every eight years. President Tsai Ing-wen has avoided the kinds of issues, corruption scandals and major popular demonstrations against her policies that undid the presidencies of her predecessors, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, leading to opposition wins in the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections, respectively. Nevertheless, Tsai has been dramatically weakened by the DPP’s crushing defeat in the November 2022 local elections (Jamestown Foundation, November 29, 2022). She stepped down as DPP party chair after the elections as the party has taken a hit for its many pandemic missteps, a flagging economy and a contentious cross-Strait policy (United Daily News, November 27, 2022). The DPP’s likely candidate in the 2024 election, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, while personally popular, would represent continuity with Tsai’s policies (China Brief, March 3). Together, these factors will likely make the 2024 race the closest since 2004, when the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu eked out a victory against the KMT’s Lien Chan and James Soong of the People First Party (PFP) by a margin of just 0.22 percent (Taipei Times, March 21, 2004).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

8. The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Evan S. Medeiros
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The U.S.-China relationship has come to largely define geopolitics in the 21st century, and the bilateral relationship is today often conceived primarily in terms of geopolitical tensions and great power jockeying on the global stage. However, there is more to U.S.-China strategic competition than the geopolitical level. In particular, the influence of domestic political dynamics in both countries is a widely underappreciated factor driving both U.S. and Chinese foreign policy decision-making, including vis-à-vis each other. What are these shifting domestic forces in both countries that are most influencing the relationship, in what ways, and to what effect? In this groundbreaking new report, The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations, Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy Evan S. Medeiros conducts an in-depth investigation and analysis of these questions. He finds substantial new dynamics at play in both countries that have had an increasingly negative impact on U.S.-China ties. In the United States, Congressional activism, electoral politics, public opinion, and shifting roles for interest groups are all influencing U.S. debates, policymaking, and actions — governmental and nongovernmental alike. In China, centralization of decision-making processes, constraints on formerly key actors, shifting national-level priorities, and other structural political and personnel changes are today directly and indirectly influencing Chinese perceptions, policies, and behaviors toward the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9. Stark Choices Confront Taiwan Voters

Author:
David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Taiwan’s presidential election campaign has begun. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Hou Yu-ih from the Nationalist (Kuomintang, or KMT) Party, Ko Wen-je of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and independent Terry Gou offer Taiwan voters four different visions of Taiwan’s future relationship with China. As senior US and Chinese officials resumed long-stalled face-to-face meetings, China warned once again that it has no room for compromise or concession on Taiwan. Yet, when Lai completed almost invisible transits through the US en route to Paraguay and back, China’s military response seemed almost pro-forma. When US, Japanese, and South Korean leaders reiterated at the trilateral Camp David summit their staunch opposition to China’s intimidation, China chose to interpret their words as one more promise to support Taiwan. The US accelerated weapons deliveries to Taiwan and expanded training for Taiwan’s military, and Taiwan announced that its defense budget will increase by 7.5% in 2024. Taiwan’s TSMC moved forward on constructing its Arizona factory despite some hiccups, and the US and Taiwan signed a long-awaited trade deal—the first part of their 21st Century Trade Initiative. As Taiwan’s presidential and legislative election campaigns enter the home stretch, the DPP’s Lai continues to lead the race. How will Beijing respond? Will Taiwan voters choose caution and vote for the KMT, or will they again interpret Chinese intimidation as one more reason to give four more years to the DPP with its insistence on de-facto independence?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

10. Spring 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN SUNNI AND SHIA COMMUNITIES’ TRANSFORMATIONS IN LEBANON: CHANGES IN THE BALANCE OF POWER ……………………………………………………………………………………..6 KUANG-HO YEH, GUIHUA NI CHINA-PAKISTAN SPACE COOPERATION: PATH, MOTIVATION AND THE FUTURE …………………………………..…......................................................26 ARAM GASPARYAN SOME ASPECTS OF THE ALGERIAN-RUSSIAN MILITARY COOPERATION: THE FEATURES AND PROSPECTS................................................................... .51 WU YEYAN A STUDY ON JAPANESE MINGEI’S BIRTH IN TAISHO ERA AND ALIENATION IN SHOWA ERA ……………………………………………...….64 REPORT CURRENT TRENDS IN TERRORISM: PROGRAM ON TERRORISM AND SECURITY STUDIES HELD AT THE GEORGE C. MARSHALL EUROPEAN CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES IN GERMANY………………………………………………………..…………….….76 WORKSHOP THE PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY OF 2023……………………………………………………………………..…………..80
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, History, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Space, Sunni, and Shiism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Germany, and Lebanon