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392. Democratic Transformation of the Security Sector in Russia: A Sad Saga of Failure
- Author:
- Yuri Federov
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- The motto "Yet who could guard the guards themselves?" used as the epigraph is often quoted in academic and political literature on civil-military relations. Indeed, it consists of two questions in one; both of which related to the essence of democratic transformation of the security sector in post-totalitarian societies: firstly, whether civil institutions are able to "guard the guards", in fact to control military and law-enforcement agencies, and, secondly, whether these institutions are democratically formed or they are of authoritarian or totalitarian nature.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
393. Fujimori's Financiers: How Japan Became the Largest Aid Donor in Latin America and Its Implications for Future Economic Development
- Author:
- Michael G. Donovan and Kwan S. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the historical development of Japan's economic relationship with Latin America and describes trends observed in the short and medium term. The main types of relations examined are trade, direct foreign investment, and official development assistance. Emphasis is placed on how Japan's postwar economic development is mirrored in its changing relationship with Latin America. The importance of relationships for both Japan and the United States is discussed, as are competing broad theoretical hypotheses about the nature and evolution of these relationships. The concluding section explores the impact of the Asian economic crisis on Latin America and assesses the feasibility of free trade agreements between Japan and certain Latin American nations.
- Topic:
- Development and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, South America, and Latin America
394. The Twain Shall Meet: The Prospect for Russia - West Relations
- Author:
- Charles Grant, Christopher J. Makins, Sergey Rogov, Christoph Bertram, and Robert Nurick
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The integration of Russia into the West will be one of the most important, and most difficult, tasks facing the United States and Europe during the next decade. Yet a closer relationship with the West will be key to the development of Russian prosperity, democracy, and stability – achievements that will benefit the West as well as Russia. The attacks on September 11 and the resulting campaign against terrorism have given a decisive push to this effort, providing the political will for closer cooperation between Russia and the West.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
395. One Third of the World's Growth and Inequality
- Author:
- Danny Quah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper studies growth and inequality in China and India—two economies that account for a third of the world's population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the paper calibrates the impact each has on different welfare indicators and on the personal income distribution across the joint population of the two countries. For personal income inequalities in a China-India universe, the forces assuming first-order importance are macroeconomic: Growing average incomes dominate all else. The relation between aggregate economic growth and within-country in- equality is insignificant for inequality dynamics.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
396. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
397. From the Grabbing Hand to the Helping Hand: A Rent Seeking Model of China's Township-Village Enterprises
- Author:
- Jiahua Che
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- I present a study of ownership of firms under government rent seeking. Using its control of regulated inputs, a government agency extracts rents from a manager who undertakes an investment. Such a government rent seeking activity leads to a typical hold-up problem. Government ownership is shown to serve as a second best commitment mechanism through which the government agency will restrain itself from the rent seeking activity and even offer the manager support and favor such as tax breaks and subsidies. This mechanism works at a cost as government ownership compromises ex post managerial incentives and creates distortion in resource allocation. Nevertheless, government ownership may Pareto dominate private ownership under certain conditions. These conditions correspond to a host of stylized empirical observations concerning local government-owned firms (township-village enterprises) during China's transition to a market economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
398. Household Income Dynamics in Rural China
- Author:
- Martin Ravallion and Jyotsna Jalan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- It is well known in theory that certain forms of non-linear dynamics in household incomes can yield poverty traps and distribution-dependent growth. The potential implications for policy are dramatic: effective social protection from transient poverty will be an investment with lasting benefits, and pro-poor redistribution will promote aggregate economic growth. We test for non-linearity in the dynamics of household expenditures and incomes using panel data for rural south-west China. While we find evidence of non-linearity, there is no sign of a dynamic poverty trap. Existing private and social arrangements in this setting appear to protect vulnerable households from the risk of destitution. However, the concavity we find in the recursion diagram does imply that the speed of recovery from an income shock is lower for the poor, and that current inequality reduces growth in mean incomes.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
399. Ratings since the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Helmut Reisen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers - and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasized in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ratings is predicted to decline as agencies have started to modify their country ceiling policy and as market participants try to exploit bond trading opportunities arising from the lagged nature of ratings. The paper presents theory and evidence to suggest that the Basel II Accord will destabilise private capital flows to the developing countries, if the current proposal to link regulatory bank capital to sovereign ratings is maintained: Assigning fixed minimum capital to bank assets whose risk weights are in turn determined by market-lagging cyclically determined ratings will reinforce the tendency of the capital ratio to work in a pro-cyclical way.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Asia, and Argentina
400. Will Hu Really Govern China?
- Author:
- Jing-dong Yuan and Phillip C. Saunders
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao's first visit to the United States this week has put the spotlight on the upcoming Chinese leadership transition. But will the changeover be a true transfer of power?
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Asia