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291. Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Author:
Alan J. Ahearne, John G. Fernald, John W. Schindler, and Prakash Loungani
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work (Ahearne, Fernald, Loungani and Schindler, 2003) on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies in Asia. We continue to find that while exchange rates matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters far more. This suggests the potential for exports of all Asian economies to grow in harmony as long as global growth is strong. We also examine changes in export shares of Asian economies to the U.S. market and find evidence that dramatic changes in shares are taking place. Many of these changes are consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China moves into the product space vacated by the Asian NIEs or with greater integration of trade across Asia in the production of final goods. Nevertheless, China's dramatic gains in recent years do increase the pressure on Asian economies, particularly in ASEAN and South Asia, to seek areas of comparative advantage.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and Asia

292. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

293. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

294. The Rule of Law in China: Incremental Progress

Author:
Jamie P. Horsley
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Western media reporting on China does not give the impression of a rule of law country. We read of frequent corruption scandals, a harsh criminal justice system still plagued by the use of torture, increasingly violent and widespread social unrest over unpaid wages, environmental degradation and irregular takings of land and housing. Outspoken academics, activist lawyers, investigative journalists and other champions of the disadvantaged and unfortunate are arrested, restrained or lose their jobs. Entrepreneurs have their successful businesses expropriated by local governments in seeming violation of the recently added Constitutional guarantee to protect private property. Citizens pursue their grievances more through extra-judicial avenues than in weak and politically submissive courts. Yet China's economy gallops ahead, apparently confounding conventional wisdom that economic development requires the rule of law.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

295. Economic Growth and India's Future?

Author:
Joydeep Mukherji
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Recent optimism about India is based on the view that the country may finally be on a higher growth trajectory after more than a decade of halting economic reform. Spurred by a balance of payments crisis a decade ago that pushed the government of India to nearly defaulting on its foreign debt, a series of coalition governments have slowly deregulated the once most-regulated economy outside the communist world. Over the years, the government has enlarged the role of market forces, given more freedom to the private sector, and cut barriers to domestic and foreign competition. At the same time, India's state governments have gained considerable autonomy from the central government, making India into the federal state envisaged in its constitution.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, and Asia

296. India's New Entrepreneurial Classes: The High Growth Economy and Why it is Sustainable?

Author:
Sunil Bharti Mittal
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
I am Francine Frankel, director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, and it is my great pleasure this evening to introduce our speaker for CASI's Annual Lecture, Sunil Bharti Mittal, the founder, chairman, and group managing director, Bharti Enterprises. I hardly need tell this audience that Bharti Tele-Ventures is India's leading telecom conglomerate and its largest mobile service operator.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, and Asia

297. Trade, Development and the Doha Round: A Sure Bet or a Train Wreck?

Author:
Daniel Drache
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper explores the strategy and assumptions that are pushing the Doha Round into dangerously troubled waters, and it assesses the different agendas on the table. It summarizes how we reached the current deadlock, and examines the state of the WTO's legal dispute mechanism. It then critically assesses how divergences play out in the key policy areas of water exports, generic drugs, textile quotas, service-sector liberalization, and agricultural subsidies. Lastly, it will try to answer the question of whether Doha is 'a sure bet, or a train wreck' by looking at several of the prospects and possible scenarios that face the WTO post-Hong Kong. What is now evident is that a target deal seems more distant than ever. It would appear that evolution is not going to be kind to the WTO. The Doha Round is too complex which increases the possibility of failure; too intrusive to assuage many of global civil society's concerns and too anti-development for numerous countries in the Global South to come on board. Paradoxically, many countries are proving to be resilient and innovative when faced with the negotiating impasse and are not pushing the panic button. The global economy is not drifting towards protectionism and the core trading nations seem ready to accept a less dynamic WTO.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
China and Asia

298. Globalization And Military-Industrial Transformation In South Asia: An Historical Perspective

Author:
Emrys Chew
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper attempts to demonstrate the relevance of the historical method and the importance of identifying long-term globalizing patterns in understanding the military-industrial transformation and militarization of South Asia. Out of this particular historical matrix would flow the events of 9/11, as well as ongoing developments in the global 'war on terror', fought out in the wider periphery of South Asia.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Asia

299. Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new National Assembly has the potential to play a vital role in stabilising Afghanistan, entrenching pluralism, institutionalising political competition and giving voice to the country's diverse population. By being accountable to the Afghan people it can demand accountability of the presidential government. However, the success of this fledgling institution remains delicately poised, particularly because of the absence of a formal role for political parties, essential for mediating internal tensions. The lack of such organised blocs has seen power-brokers of past eras try to dominate proceedings. New moderate forces need to move quickly now to establish formal groups within the houses to ensure their voices are heard.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

300. Nepal: From People Power to Peace?

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
King Gyanendra's capitulation on 24 April 2006 in the face of a mass movement marked a victory for democracy in Nepal and, with a ceasefire between the new government and the Maoists now in place, the start of a serious peace process. Forced to acknowledge the “spirit of the people's movement”, Gyanendra accepted popular sovereignty, reinstated parliament and invited the mainstream seven-party alliance to implement its roadmap – including election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution in line with the parties' five-month-old agreement with the Maoists. The international community lost credibility by attempting to pressure the parties into an unworkable compromise with the king and must now work hard to support a difficult transition and peace process while avoiding similar mistakes.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal