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261. A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper assesses the progress made in improving China's exchange rate policies over the past five years (that is, since 2002). I first discuss four indicators of progress on China's external imbalance and its exchange rate policies—namely, the change in (and level of) China's global current account position, movements in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), the role of market forces in the determination of the RMB, and China's compliance with its obligations on exchange rate policy as a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I then discuss why the lack of progress in improving China's exchange rate policies matters for the economies of the China and the United States and for the international monetary and trading system. I also argue that several popular arguments and excuses for why more cannot be accomplished on removing the large undervaluation of the RMB are unpersuasive. Finally, I consider what can and should be done by China, the United States, and the IMF to accelerate progress over the next year or two.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

262. From Industrial Policy to Innovative Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backward” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Exchange, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

263. Offshoring, Outsourcing, and Production Relocation-Labor—Market Effects in the OECD Countries and Developing Asia

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper evaluates the validity of available data on and the extent of the impact of offshoring on service-sector labor markets in the United States, EU-15, and Japan. A three-tier data validity hierarchy is identified. The impact of offshoring on employment in the three regions is found to be limited. Correspondingly, developing Asia is unlikely to experience large employment gains as a destination region. The paper highlights the case of the Indian IT industry, where the majority of job creation has been in local Indian companies rather than foreign multinationals. Domestic entrepreneurs have played a crucial role in the growth of the Indian IT-related service industry. However, increased tradability of services and associated skill bias in favor of higher skilled workers could have an uneven employment impact on developing Asia. Some high-skilled groups are benefiting and will continue to benefit dramatically from new employment opportunities and rising wage levels. Meanwhile, the same skill bias may eliminate many employment opportunities for unskilled or low-skilled groups in the region. Developing Asian countries therefore face a double educational challenge in the coming years: the need to simultaneously improve both primary and higher education.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

264. Olimpiadas y Copa Mundial de Fútbol: ¿Competencias deportivas o instrumentos políticos?

Author:
Karina Garcia
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the setting of the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup employing a geopolitical approach. To identify in which way these international sports events are geopolitical instruments of the International System, I present a revision of different elements involved in the selection of China and South Africa as respective hosts of the Olympic Games of 2008 and the World Cup of 2010, such as the motives, goals and possible benefits of these two countries. In this way, I sustain the thesis that the Olympic Games and the World Cup are political instruments used by the States to pursue their geopolitical interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Africa

265. Scope and limits of the Chinese technologic and scientific system

Author:
Gian Carlo Delgado-Ramos
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Using the case of nanotechnology, one of the most promising technological niches of the 21st century and one that is increasing in China, the purpose of this article is three-fold. One, the article discusses the concepts of scientific-technology system and industrial network in order to characterize the structure of development in countries that are considered as emerging or peripheral economies. Two, the term maquila-technology is analyzed in relation with the endogenous development effects of science and technology on the linkages among national production networks in China. This includes an analysis of the role of the state, the private sector, and the knowledge centers of production. And, three, the article evaluates other aspects, such as the military, that result in a friction between a progressively technological competitiveness of China with the industrial interests of the West.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

266. Narrativas del cambio: Cultura y desarrollo económico regional.

Author:
David Goodman
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
China's economic growth since the late 1970s challenges economic theory so strongly that cultural explanations are often sought. A prime difficulty in such approaches is the operationalisation of the concept of Chinese culture. Culture is more readily and usefully analysed at the local rather than the national level. Local culture has been demonstrated to be important to politics and the emergence of modern Chinese nationalism. The relationship between local culture and economic development is more complex. Local culture provides ideology and often organisation that supports entrepreneurship and the development of specifically local economic activity. Through local studies in three Chinese provinces – Shanxi, Qinghai and Hainan – it is argued that local culture is not only a significant factor of production but also helps explain the trajectory and organisation of local business.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

267. Afghanistan's Economy: On the Right Road, But Still a Long Way to Go

Author:
Beth Ellen Cole
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan has now laid the foundation for a market-based economy. A new economic system, based on the state as a regulator, not a producer, of goods, with a clear separation between the public and private sectors, stands in place of the centralized economy of the past. An independent central bank, a liberalized foreign exchange system, and laws permitting foreigners to wholly own property characterize the new economic landscape. A doubling of the gross national product and per capita income, a 13 percent growth rate in 2007, and modest inflation paint a vibrant picture.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

268. Nepal in Transition: Developing Security and Rule of Law Strategies

Author:
Karon Cochran-Budhathoki and Colette Rausch
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In February 2007, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) facilitated a series of dialogues in Kathmandu, Nepal between civil society, the Nepal police, and representatives of political parties. The aim was to identify those areas of mutual concern related to security and the rule of law in Nepal. Civil society representatives from development organizations, media, human rights groups, the legal community, and Dalit and Janajati rights groups participated. The representatives from the Nepal police included deputy inspector generals, senior superintendents, superintendents, and deputy superintendents of police. The dialogue sessions were conducted over the course of four days. On day one, civil society representatives met to discuss the challenges and possible solutions to security and the rule of law. The next day, the police discussed the same issues. On day three, the two groups came together to develop a joint list of high-priority issues. On the final day, the police and civil society representatives presented this joint list to political party representatives.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

269. Siloviki versus liberal-technocrats: The fight for Russia and its foreign policy

Author:
Jørgen Staun
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The window of opportunity for ensuring Russian democracy is closed or rapidly closing, at least in the intermediate term. Putin's so-called “managed democracy” has turned the Putin-regime into an autocratic system of power where all matters of importance, be it of domestic or foreign policy concern, are decided upon by the members of the small, non-elected elite of powerful bureaucrats surrounding Putin. Elections, parties, court-decisions, major media as well as major business deals – especially in so-called “strategic sectors” of oil, gas, metals and arms – are controlled by the Kremlin, based upon a closed matrix of private, corporate, organisational and national interests. Russia is still a market-based society where property rights are generally accepted – even if they are suspect of turf wars between competing clans and well-connected business groups. But “rule of law” in Russia is at least in high-profile cases a matter of “telephone justice”, that is, rulings are decided outside and not inside the courts.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Kremlin, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Maryland

270. Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in China, 1995-2002

Author:
Renwei Zhao and Shi Li
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates some major changes in the wealth distribution in China using the data from two national household surveys conducted in 1995 and 2002. The surveys collected rich information on household wealth and its components, enabling a detailed analysis of changes in wealth distribution among Chinese households. Our analysis indicates that the wealth distribution in China as a whole became much more unequal in 2002 than it was in 1995. The housing reform, in which public apartments were sold to urban households at extremely low prices, has accelerated the accumulation of wealth among urban households on the one hand, and widened the wealth gap between urban and rural areas on the other.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia