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251. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps

Author:
O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

252. Sustainability of Economic Growth in India

Author:
Rajiv Kumar, Amitendu Palit, and Karan Singh
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The robust performance of the Indian economy in recent years, with economic growth averaging 8.5%, has generated intense debate regarding India's future economic prospects. Indeed, the future of more than a billion people, many of whom still exist in degrading and unacceptable poverty and deprivation, depends critically on India's ability to grow fast at high rates. This paper, while examining the issue, argues that India's recent economic performance is a result of it's entering a virtuous circle of growth generated by some key structural drivers. The latter include a dynamic private sector, benign external environment and a wellfunctioning democracy. The paper also points out that high growth can be sustained only if necessary policies are adopted for removing binding constraints like poor infrastructure, stagnant agriculture and lack of fiscal space. The paper identifies education as the most critical sector requiring reforms, followed by public goods delivery and labour markets.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
India and Asia

253. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020

Author:
John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

254. Consequences of an Emerging China: Is Development Space Disappearing for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Nicola Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The economic rise of China has caused a redrawing of global production and value chains, a restructuring of the global division of labour, and a restructuring of patterns of global demand and of the terms of trade. This paper examines the nature of the emerging economic relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean and China, and seeks to offer some reflections on the significance of this relationship for Latin American and Caribbean development. It begins with an overview of trade and investment relationships between Latin American countries and China, and examines the significance of the emergence of China for the region's development strategies and developmental prospects in greater detail. This paper reflects on the early impact of these emerging arrangements on the existing economic relationship between Latin America and the United States, and seeks in some ways to challenge understandings of this sort based on national economies and instead argues for a focus on global production and value chains, as well the new transnational division of labour.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

255. Modernizing Municipal Finance of the Kaliningrad Oblast

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In 2005–2006 the EastWest Institute (EWI) and the Association of Municipalities of the Kaliningrad Oblast (AMOKO) realized a joint project, «Reforming Municipal Finance of the Kaliningrad Oblast through Performance Budgeting». Carried out with financial support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the project was a contribution to the Russian national program of modernization of budget management systems at the regional and municipal level in accordance with the best world and European practices.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

256. Engaging India: Ambassador Ortwin Hennig's visit to Delhi and Mumbai

Author:
Sahiba Trivedi
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Ambassador Ortwin Hennig is the Vice President and the Head of Conflict Prevention Program of the East West Institute at Brussels. His previous assignments include the Commissioner for Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and Post-Conflict Peace Building in the German Government; diplomatic postings in Afghanistan, Russia, German Representation at the European Commission and the OSCE in Vienna. He has also served the Office of the German Federal President as a Foreign Policy Advisor. Ambassador Hennig is an alumnus of the NATO Defense College in Rome having specialized in arms control and security policy matters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, India, Asia, Germany, and Vienna

257. Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia

Author:
Peter Timmer and Neil McCulloch
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

258. Nepal's Maoists: Purists or Pragmatists?

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's Maoists have changed their strategy and tactics but not yet their goals. In 1996 they launched a “people's war” to establish a communist republic but ten years later ended it by accepting multiparty democracy; their armed struggle targeted the parliamentary system but they are now working alongside their former enemies, the mainstream parties, in an interim legislature and coalition government. Their commitment to pluralistic politics and society is far from definitive, and their future course will depend on both internal and external factors. While they have signed up to a peaceful, multiparty transition, they continue to hone alternative plans for more revolutionary change.
Topic:
Communism, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

259. Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
General Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in Pakistan on 3 November 2007. He suspended the constitution, sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and removed other judges of that court who declared his act illegal. Police immediately began arresting lawyers, politicians and human rights activists. Independent television channels were taken off the air and reporting restrictions imposed. Thousands have since been jailed, journalists threatened and protests by lawyers and others suppressed. Replacing dissenting judges with hand-picked appointees, and ruling by decree, Musharraf's objective is to retain personal power by gaining judicial approval for martial law, followed by the creation of a democratic façade through rigged elections. The international community should demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the rule of law and the legitimate judiciary, the release of political prisoners and the appointment of an impartial caretaker government to oversee free and fair elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

260. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia