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11. Fourth Industrial Revolution in Japan: Technology to Address Social Challenges

Author:
Gyupan Kim, Hyongkun Lee, Boram Lee, Jongeun Lee, and Wonju Son
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In Japan, the challenges posed by its low birthrate and aging population expanded rapidly with the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, and in March 2011, energy and environmental problems such as power supply shortages and nuclear radiation issues occurred in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident. Also, with the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in January 2020, digital transformation has emerged as a social challenge. In particular, Japan's aging population combined with a decrease in the working age population, has caused the government to face fiscal crisis due to the burden of social insurance, and a sense of crisis of labor shortage in the medical, manufacturing and logistics sectors. This is also leading to a sense of crisis at local governments as well, seen with the collapse of the medical service supply system under “Tokyo centralization,” the rapid increase of the vulnerable in transportation due to the super-aging of rural areas, and the risk of extinction of local communities. The analysis on the healthcare and medical care sectors was conducted in chapter 2, and the manufacturing, mobility, and logistics sectors in Chapter 3, and the local revitalization in Chapter 4 respectively. And chapter 5 of conclusion remarks presents policy implications for the Korean government.
Topic:
Demographics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Economy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

12. Chinese Demographic Signals Bode Ill for Future Development

Author:
Elizabeth Chen
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A new study published February 8 by the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (MPS, 中华人民共和国公安部, zhonghua renmin gongheguo gongan bu) reported that there were 10.035 million registered births in 2020, down from 11.79 million in 2019. This represents a 15 percent decrease following the coronavirus pandemic (Guancha.cn, February 8). Althou­gh the number of registered births—that is, newborns recorded in the household registration hukou (户口) system—is not the same as China’s official birth rate, the decline has concerned analysts that a long-forewarned demographic crisis may be approaching faster than expected.National birth and population figures for the previous year are usually released in January but have been delayed until April this year as China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) compiles its decennial census. In the meantime, data released by some provinces and cities in January has appeared to confirm the implications of the MPS study. Data released from the capital city of Guangdong province—which saw the highest number of births per province in 2019—showed that birth rates in Guangzhou were down by 17 percent year-on-year and mirrored broader trends across the rest of the province. In Zhejiang, China’s wealthiest province, the cities of Wenzhou and Taizhou reported that new births in 2020 fell by 19 percent and 33 percent respectively compared to 2019 (SCMP, February 2).
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Aging, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia

13. The pandemic’s long reach: South Korea’s fiscal and fertility outlook

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
South Korea was one of the first countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. A combination of high societal discipline and competent and prompt government actions on mass testing capacity and technologically enabled tracing and quarantines enabled South Korea to quickly control the pandemic. Consequently, South Korea did not need to enter into full economic lockdown in early 2020 and needed only much smaller fiscal stimulus than most other advanced economies. The limited fiscal impact of COVID-19 is fortuitous for South Korea, as the pandemic coincided with the country’s dramatic demographic transition to a future of rapidly shrinking working-age population and accelerating overall aging. South Korea recorded the lowest total fertility rate of any advanced economy in 2020. Unless fertility rates rise, the country will not escape large and negative economic effects from what will be a rapidly declining total and working-age population. Kirkegaard proposes several policy reforms for South Korea, while arguing that the direct role of government action in increasing the South Korean fertility levels is likely to be modest.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fertility
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

14. South Korea’s Demographic Advantage is Over: The Regional Context and the Economic and Security Implications

Author:
Tom Byrne and Jonathan Corrado
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
South Korea has the lowest birth rate in the world, its population—especially its working-age population—has declined, and the pronatalist polices of the past 20 years have not been successful at reversing this trend. Over time, this threatens the country’s economic and fiscal position, as well as its military position as the number of conscripts declines. While more advanced technology can help, over the long term it is no substitute for people, especially in the security realm. Overcoming this will require Korea to either shift to a new economic paradigm or else achieve a second Miracle on the Han River—this time demographic rather than economic.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Economy, and Aging
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

15. Japan Can Remain an Important U.S. Ally Despite Demographic Challenges

Author:
Mina Pollman
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The world is aging. Some countries are not only aging, but their populations are shrinking as immigration fails to make up for rapidly falling birth rates. Many U.S. allies and security partners are among those beset by these trends. This raises questions about how decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancies will shape the future world order, and specifically the sustainability of U.S. alliances such as with Japan, whose aging and population decline will make it more difficult for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to compete for the best Japanese talent as the Japanese labor pool shrinks ever smaller, and Japanese tax dollars with which to hire military personnel grow ever scarcer. Unless SDF recruitment trends change dramatically, Japan’s ability to participate in both technology-intensive and manpower-heavy alliance missions will decline over time. The fulfillment of manpower-intensive missions requires, of course, manpower, while even the fulfillment of technology-intensive missions will be affected by the JSDF’s inability to recruit technologically proficient talent. Ensuring the JSDF meets quantity and quality targets is imperative, but will require more government spending. But an aging and shrinking population will reduce the size of the working age population that pay taxes and increases the size of the retired population that depends on the state’s benefits for the elderly. While this will affect the JSDF’s ability to fulfill both technology-intensive and manpower-heavy missions with the United States in the future, the alliance will remain relevant to U.S. security in the Indo-Pacific because of the value of U.S. bases in Japan which forms the core of the alliance.
Topic:
Demographics, Immigration, Alliance, and Aging
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America

16. PART I: COVID-19 Contact Tracing: Why South Korea’s Success is Hard to Replicate

Author:
Justin Fendos
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article is the first installment in a two-part series. Unlike South Korea’s centralized approach to contact tracing, other democracies faced legal impediments to similar approaches. The second installment reviews alternative, non-centralized approaches currently being implemented in these countries and their limitations.
Topic:
Demographics, Science and Technology, Law, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

17. PART II: COVID-19 Contact Tracing: Why South Korea’s Success is Hard to Replicate

Author:
Justin Fendos
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article is the second installment of a two-part series. It reviews the alternative, non-centralized approaches to contact tracing currently being implemented in many Western democracies. The first installment described South Korea’s centralized approach to contact tracing and the legal impediments to its implementation in other countries.
Topic:
Demographics, Science and Technology, Law, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

18. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges

Author:
Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

19. Immigration and Racism in Japan: Litmus test for liberal democracy?

Author:
Eric Chung, Atsuko Abe, Garcia Liu-Farrer, Michael Sharpe, and Takako Hikotani
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
This event will discuss the growing debate around whether or not Japan will become a country of immigration and the related and under addressed subject of racism. Japan is one of the few liberal democracies in the world to have successfully resisted immigration in its postwar economy. However, in the last twenty years, immigration in Japan has increased substantially with various side doors for unskilled labor as well as official entry points for skilled labor with options for fast tracked permanent residency. In 2018, Prime Minister Abe proposed some 500,000 unskilled workers by 2025 to fill jobs in industries with labor shortages while at the same time declaring that this is not an immigration policy. In the face of ageing population and low birthrate, Japan find itself at a crossroads of whether, how, and when to accept the increasing reality of immigration as a solution to its demographic decline and labor shortage. Will Japan follow the path of Western liberal democracies in accepting immigrants and extending rights of citizenship? How are immigrants being received? Do immigrants exercise political rights and build coalition with other marginalized groups? What is the role of race, ethnicity, and racism in all of this? Will Japan go the way of Western liberal democracies or in the direction of illiberal autocracies such as Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates. This event will provide an opportunity to discuss issues of immigration and racism in Japan. It will bring together leading scholars in the field of immigration and racism with a focus on Japan.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Democracy, and Racism
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

20. South Korea’s Migrant Policies and Democratic Challenges After the Candlelight Movement

Author:
Darcie Druadt
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
South Korea’s deliberate liberalization of migration controls has facilitated the entry and stay of new types of residents from various ethnic, political, and national backgrounds. With this demographic shift comes new questions for the South Korean polity in terms of its expectations of rights and duties of residents in the country. South Korean citizenship has, until the past decade, been largely premised on belonging in two fields: shared ethnic descent and contributions to the nationstate development project. However, new residents, who are ethnically diverse and who contribute to the national project, are seeking greater rights and social welfare provisions just as Korean nationals are ambivalent about their inclusion in the democratic body politic. As a result, the migrant policies bring into sharper relief the contours of democratic discourse in South Korea today. Drawing from six months of immersive fieldwork conducted in South Korea, this paper analyzes the relevance of migrant rights and expectations in understanding the broader democratic challenges in South Korea. Examining the government’s institutionalization of certain migrant “categories”—namely, temporary labor migrants and so-called “marriage migrants”— the paper argues that South Korea’s treatment of diversity and the protection of individual rights should be analyzed more deeply to understand current trends in South Korean civil society and democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Migration, Immigration, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Korea