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2. Managing an Aging Society: Learning the Right Lessons from Japan
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- As the world and especially other Asian and European economies enter the accelerated process of aging that Japan experienced from the mid-1990s onwards, learning the right policy lessons from Japan’s response is crucial. This paper argues that, overall, Japan has done relatively well by implementing a response that—even if often belatedly so—has mitigated some of the worst economic effects of aging. Japan has successfully raised domestic labor utilization and immigration levels, integrated its economy more with the rest of the world, and implemented a fiscal policy based on debt expansion that has seen debt costs decline. Other advanced Asian economies and China now face aging processes materially faster than Japan’s and will age simultaneously rather than alone like Japan. In addition, many advanced economies will age during a period of much slower global economic growth and less rather than more global trade and investment opening than what Japan faced from the mid-1990s. These less benign international economic and political circumstances mean that many advanced economies will likely not age with the same relative political and economic stability seen in Japan in the last 30 years. In time, this paper argues, “Japanification” will no longer mean a slowly developing economic disaster but will come to mean competent management of a very difficult economic transition.
- Topic:
- Debt, Demographics, Labor Issues, Immigration, Fiscal Policy, Aging, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
3. Japan’s Aging Society as a Technological Opportunity
- Author:
- Ken Kushida
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Japan’s extreme demographic aging and shrinking is an economic and societal challenge, but also a technological opportunity for global leadership. Technological trajectories of worker automation and worker skill augmentation within Japan are already being shaped by the country’s demographics. Software, robotics, and other technology deployments are transforming the nature of work in a wide range of sectors in Japan’s economy, and across types of work such as blue-collar, white-collar, agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Specific ways in which Japan’s demographics shape technological trajectories include market opportunities, acute labor shortages, and favorable political and regulatory dynamics. The private sector is driving technology deployments in industrial sectors hit hard by Japan’s aging population, ranging from construction and transportation to medical care and finance, with strong government support in each of the domains. Demographically driven technological trajectories play to Japan’s strengths in implementing, deploying, and improving technologies rather than generating breakthrough innovations. Japan’s demographically driven technological trajectory can be an important platform for international technology cooperation, fitting with the top U.S.-Japanese political leadership agreements on fostering strong innovation and technology collaboration ties. Japan’s start-up ecosystem, often in partnership with large incumbent firms, will be critical in deploying new technologies by defining new markets and providing new offerings. An effective analysis goes beyond broad demographic numbers to delve into specific pain points of particular segments of society to better capture their situations and roles in shaping market opportunities that drive technological adoption. This introductory paper: (1) defines key analytical concepts; (2) surveys some of Japan’s key demographic shifts; and (3) highlights cases from agriculture, construction, transportation, healthcare, eldercare, land, and housing ownership.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
4. Migration or stagnation: Aging and economic growth in Korea today, the world tomorrow
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- South Korea faces an unprecedented economic crisis driven by rapid population aging, as it approaches a future of negative economic growth. This paper examines the full range of possible policy responses with the potential to restore dynamism to the Korean economy. Contrary to many prior analyses, I find that enhanced labor migration to Korea is necessary, sufficient, and feasible. Migration is necessary because in the best forecasts we have, no other class of policy has the quantitative potential to meaningfully offset aging. Migration is sufficient because enhanced temporary labor migration by itself would offset most of Korea’s demographic drag on growth over the next 50 years. And migration is feasible because the levels of migration and timescale of the transition would resemble that already carried out by Malaysia and Australia. Many advanced economies will follow in Korea’s demographic footsteps in decades to come, and have much to learn from the decisions that the Korean government makes now.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
5. The E-Commerce and Global Value Chains
- Author:
- Sangjun Yea and Seungrae Lee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the significance of India's emergence as the world's most populous nation in 2023, surpassing China, and its consequential implications for economic growth. With a focus on the demographic dividend driven by working-age and prime-age populations, we analyze the effects of shifting age distribution on India's labor force, labor market, and economic drivers. Extending the study period by integrating additional datasets, we examine per capita GDP growth, sectoral value-added, and employment shifts at the state level. Results reveal limited influence on per capita output, but significant sectoral effects. Notably, prime age composition within the working-age population emerges as a key driver of economic growth.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains, and E-Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Global Focus
6. To what extent can urbanisation mitigate the negative impact of population ageing in China?
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China is experiencing population ageing caused by a rapidly declining fertility rate and increased life expectancy. This demographic transition poses economic challenges, yet the intensity of these challenges depends on a number of factors, with the move of people from rural to urban areas being of central importance. To gain a clearer understanding of how urbanisation interacts with population ageing, we investigate changes in the Chinese labour force in both rural and urban areas. Our findings suggest a modest shrinking of the overall labour force up until 2035. However, until 2035, the labour force is projected to contract only in rural areas, while the urban labour force will continue to grow. As urban employment is more productive than rural employment, the combined effect of demographic change and urbanisation on growth will remain moderately positive (0.4 percent per year). Beyond 2035, fertility rate decline will begin to affect the working-age population in both rural and urban areas, especially since the urbanisation process is expected to level off by then. In such circumstances, China’s shrinking population will shave off 1.4 percent from GDP growth annually. These results, however, do not take into account the impact of population aging on labour productivity. China’s fast move towards robotisation and artificial intelligence might help mitigate any negative impacts by increasing productivity, but there is no sign yet that this is the case.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
7. Modernizing the People's Liberation Army: The Human Factor
- Author:
- Marc Julienne and Constantin Lagraulet
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The tremendous demographic challenges facing China will not significantly affect the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the immediate future, but will become more problematic in the medium and long term. The rapid aging of the population and the resulting socio-economic imbalances will put pressure on defense budgets, military wages and the general attractiveness of the army. For the time being, the PLA’s primary goal in terms of human resources is to build a less oversized, more professional army, prepared for high-intensity combat. This objective is in line with the institutional reform of 2016, which shortened the chain of command and strengthened the political and ideological control of the Communist Party of China (CPC) over the PLA through an overhaul of the Central Military Commission (CMC). This reform also involved a major restructuring of China’s armed forces. The PLA is pursuing a streamlining target that emphasizes quality over quantity. This qualitative improvement concerns equipment, forces and chains of command, and is driven by the need to elevate modernity, operational effectiveness and interoperability. An analysis of the evolution of the PLA Navy Marine Corps and the People’s Armed Police (PAP) demonstrates this qualitative upgrading trend and the prioritization of combat readiness. To integrate increasingly modern and complex equipment, the PLA is also focusing on recruiting and retaining young conscripts and volunteers with a high level of education, in order to increase the number of commissioned and non-commissioned officers. The major reforms being carried out thus aim to enhance the status of the military so as to strengthen its economic and social attractiveness. On the other hand, the PLA, like other armies around the world, is confronted with societal phenomena such as internet addiction, near-sightedness and obesity, which hinder its ambitions and force it to make trade-offs in its selection standards.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Demographics, Modernization, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia
8. Family and Inequality: “Diverging Destinies” in Japan
- Author:
- James M. Raymo and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- “Diverging destinies” is a term used by family demographers and sociologists to describe growing socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and their implications. Drawing primarily on evidence from the U.S., research on diverging destinies has demonstrated that those at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum are increasingly engaging in family behaviors that are associated with reduction in the resources available to their children (e.g., nonmarital childbearing) while those at the upper end of the spectrum are engaging in family behaviors associated with increased resources (e.g., stable marriage). This pattern of family bifurcation has potentially important implications for the reinforcement of inequality both within and across generations. Despite tremendous interest in both family change and growing socioeconomic inequality in Japan, social scientific efforts to link these trends are limited. In this talk, Professor James Raymo will summarize the results of several recent papers (both published and in progress) on socioeconomic differences in family demographic behavior and children’s well-being in Japan. In general, the findings of these studies show patterns of family bifurcation consistent with predictions of the diverging destinies framework, but of a magnitude that is less pronounced than observed in the U.S. Among the most pronounced differences in Japan are a strong negative educational gradient in divorce and substantial differences in the well-being of children in single-mother and two-parent families. In thinking about the relevance of diverging destinies in Japan, he stresses the theoretical and empirical value of considering intergenerational family relationships, gender inequality, and the changing economic environment.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Inequality, Family, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
9. Revising down the rise of China
- Author:
- Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
10. Japan's Leadership on Aging Societies
- Author:
- Yumiko Murakami
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The decline in Japan's birthrate and the aging of its population are rapidly accelerating. Senior citizens aged 65 or over numbered 36.17 million in 2020, accounting for 28.7% of the general population, and both the absolute number of senior citizens and the population aging rate set new all-time highs1. Looking back, the ratio of elderly people went from less than 5% in 1950 to more than 14% in 1995 and then to 23% in 2010, surpassing the 21% level that defines super-aging. A drop of 290,000 from the previous year in Japan's 2020 population marked the start of a downtrend, and the aging of that population is expected to pick up speed. An estimate by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research contends that the ratio of elderly people will reach 35.3% in 2040, when the generation born during the second baby-boom period (1971-1974) will be 65 years or older.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Leadership, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia