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1. Refocusing U.S. Public Diplomacy for a Multipolar World

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Philip Arceneaux
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
China and Russia leverage technology, social media, and big data as tools to deceptively present information for hostile purposes. The United States must embrace a bold approach to public diplomacy to protect the ideas, values, electoral processes, and all the elements that make a free and open society possible and prevent it from becoming a casualty in the information war.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Data, Multipolarity, Public Diplomacy, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

2. Developing an International Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Based on Big Data

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In the era of big data, economists are exploring new data sources and methodologies to improve economic forecasting. This study examines the potential of big data and machine learning in enhancing the predictive power of international macroeconomic forecasting models. The research utilizes both structured and unstructured data to forecast Korea's GDP growth rate. For structured data, around 200 macroeconomic and financial indicators from Korea and the U.S. were used with machine learning techniques (Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM) and ensemble models. Results show that machine learning generally outperforms traditional econometric models, particularly for one-quarter-ahead forecasts, although performance varies by country and period. For unstructured data, the study uses Naver search data as a proxy for public sentiment. Using Dynamic Model Averaging and Selection (DMA and DMS) techniques, it incorporates eight Naver search indices alongside traditional macroeconomic variables. The findings suggest that online search data improves predictive power, especially in capturing economic turning points. The study also compares these big data-driven models with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. While DSGE offers policy analysis capabilities, its in-sample forecasts make direct comparison difficult. However, DMA and DMS models using search indices seem to better capture the GDP plunge in 2020. Based on the research findings, the author offers several suggestions to maximize the potential of big data. He stresses the importance of discovering and constructing diverse data sources, while also developing new analytical techniques such as machine learning. Furthermore, he suggests that big data models can be used as auxiliary indicators to complement existing forecasting models, and proposes that combining structural models with big data methodologies could create synergistic effects. Lastly, by using text mining on various online sources to build comprehensive databases, we can secure richer and more real-time economic data. These suggestions demonstrate the significant potential of big data in improving the accuracy of international macroeconomic forecasting, particularly emphasizing its effectiveness in situations where the economy is undergoing rapid changes.
Topic:
Economics, Macroeconomics, and Data
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

3. Mongolia’s State-Owned Mining Enterprises: A Deeper Look Into Glass Accounts Data

Author:
Dorjdari Namkhaijantsan
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Mongolia’s Glass Accounts Law (2014) requires that government entities and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) disclose detailed financial and operational information on a public website. The government’s Glass Accounts portal has since become a focal point for government transparency. However, uptake of the law has been uneven among government entities, and specifically for many SOEs operating in Mongolia. In part, this lack of implementation stems from the law’s ambiguity on who should report, but it also resulted from the government’s inactivity and poor enforcement as well as limited sanctions for those who do not comply.
Topic:
Governance, Mining, Data, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

4. Efficacy of Economic Sanctions against North Korea: Evidence from Satellite Nighttime Lights

Author:
Youngseok Park
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council adopted eight resolutions from 2012 to 2019, in condemning threatening actions on the part of North Korea, such as conducting ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons tests. I examine the efficacy of sanctions against North Korea using satellite nighttime lights data. The political system of North Korea is defined as suryong dictatorship, in which the dictator (supreme leader or suryong) holds absolute power to dictate the country’s resources. Suryong allocates large enough fraction of the country’s resources to the selectorate for supporting his political power. I empirically test the theoretical hypothesis - the ruler will transfer a greater fraction of the country’s resources to the selectorate as sanctions intensify - using satellite nighttime lights data. I find that an additional sanction is associated with an increase in the difference in nighttime lights between the capital city, Pyongyang, and the rest of the country by about 0.4 percent. Manufacturing cities, mining areas, the Chinese border region, and Sinuiju become relatively brighter with an additional sanctions event. Another notable finding is the estimate on the interaction term with the nuclear development facilities areas, which suggests that the ruler diverts resources and electricity from nuclear development activities to other sectors when sanctions increase.
Topic:
United Nations, Sanctions, UN Security Council, Data, and Satellite
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

5. The Middle East as a Sphere for US-China Cooperation

Author:
Sama Kubba
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The United States’ approach has been to push China out; however, it can apply pressure on its allies to repel Chinese engagement. But this approach is not sustainable. The U.S. cannot keep trying to regulate the Middle East, nor is it to the benefit of Middle Eastern countries. Instead, the U.S. and China should cooperate by leveraging their comparative advantages to make grand strategy gains in their Middle East foreign policy. Both countries share interests in beating terrorism, containing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, preventing Iran from causing chaos in the region, stable oil prices and access to oil, opening up opportunities for economic investment and engagement with Middle Eastern allies, and regional stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Data
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. Mapping China's Tech Giants: Supply chains & the global data collection ecosystem

Author:
Samantha Hoffman and Nathan Attrill
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Most of the 27 companies tracked by our Mapping China’s Technology Giants project are heavily involved in the collection and processing of vast quantities of personal and organisational data — everything from personal social media accounts, to smart cities data, to biomedical data. Their business operations—and associated international collaborations — depend on the flow of vast amounts of data, often governed by the data privacy laws of multiple jurisdictions. Currently, however, existing global policy debates and subsequent policy responses concerning security in the digital supply chain miss the bigger picture because they typically prioritise the potential for disruption or malicious alterations of the supply chain. Yet, as we have defined it in this report, digital supply-chain risk starts at the design level (Figure 1). For the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the designer is the Chinese party-state, through expectations and agenda-setting in laws and policy documents and actions such as the mobilisation of state resources to achieve objectives such as the setting of technology standards. It’s through those standards, policies and laws that the party-state is refining its capacity to exert control over companies’ activities to ensure that it can derive strategic value and benefit from the companies’ global operations. That includes leveraging data collection taking place through those companies’ everyday global business activities, which ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre (ICPC) described in the Engineering global consent report. Technology isn’t agnostic—who sets the standards and therefore the direction of the technology matters just as much as who manufactures the product. This will have major implications for the effectiveness of data protection laws and notions of digital supply-chain security.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Data, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7. China's Data Strategy: Creating a state-led market

Author:
Camille Boullenois
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2019 and 2020, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States issued strategy papers on data governance acknowledging the importance of data to their economic development and national security. With different emphases, four competing objectives dominate these data strategies: innovation (using data to create new business models and boost economic growth); security (ensuring that sensitive data is not used by a hostile foreign power); privacy (protecting citizens from abusive use of personal data); and surveillance (using data to monitor and control citizens’ and companies’ behaviour). In the past two years, China has been defining its own data strategy and governance regime and, while juggling the same four competing objectives as its Western counterparts, is taking an innovative approach. While the specific data governance framework is still being debated among scholars, policymakers, industrial lobbyists and state institutions, local pilot regulations on data and stakeholders’ public positions have already hinted at its future characteristics. This Brief aims to shed light on these debates over China’s emerging data governance framework. It starts by describing the objectives of the framework, then summarises the debates around the new data rights that Chinese policymakers are establishing and analyses China’s first local pilot regulations defining those rights. The Brief then focuses specifically on health data to illustrate how China'sdata governance regime is designed to work. Finally, the Brief gives an overview of the challenges that China’s data governance framework presents for EU governments and companies. Ultimately, China’s data governance regime will have important implications for the protection of EU citizens’ data and creates a risk of data protectionism. It is therefore crucial that the EU understands early enough the direction that China is taking, so that it can respond appropriately.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Transnational Actors, and Data
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8. China’s Gambit for Total Information Dominance: A US-Australia Response

Author:
Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This report assesses China’s comprehensive approach to information power and its implications for the U.S.-Australia alliance. The purpose of the report is threefold: to enlarge alliance awareness of China’s whole-of-society information challenge; highlight critical responses to this challenge from Canberra and Washington; and deepen alliance thinking regarding strategy and policy. The scale and scope of China’s information enterprise distinguishes it from other countries. Overt persuasion campaigns and covert influence operations are thoroughly researched, carefully choreographed, and uninhibited by concerns over individual or sovereign rights. Beijing goes beyond the use of information and instead seeks to achieve primacy in discourse power by weaponizing narrative in ways analogous to asymmetric military strategies. China uses a distinctive whole-of-society approach to building a dazzling wealth of data and information. Aided by intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, decades of education training abroad, and other forms of acquiring information, China’s industrial policy goes beyond protectionist measures like subsidies. When Military-Civil Fusion is considered, this development has far more than economic and technological ramifications.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Alliance, Data, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and United States of America

9. China’s Digital Currency: Adding Financial Data to Digital Authoritarianism

Author:
Yaya J. Fanusie and Emily Jin
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
China is pushing aggressively to be a global leader in financial technology. Over the last several years, use of mobile payment platforms has exploded in China while cash transactions have declined. At the same time, global interest in the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has also risen, with dozens of central banks now researching ways to offer digital versions of their fiat currency to ordinary citizens. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is leading in these efforts, aiming to release a central bank digital currency of its own. This CBDC system, which the Chinese government calls Digital Currency/ Electronic Payment (DCEP), will likely enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to strengthen its digital authoritarianism domestically and export its influence and standard-setting abroad. By eliminating some of the previous constraints on government data collection of private citizens’ transactions, DCEP represents a significant risk to the long-held standards of financial privacy upheld in free societies. The PBOC’s DCEP strategy is motivated by a number of factors. The dominance of private mobile payment firms in China has given such companies an outsized role in retail commerce, making them indispensable to the economy. The PBOC is seeking a digital currency to harness the market share and technological innovation of private financial firms and to gain better access to information about the financial activities of Chinese consumers. DCEP is also part of China’s geopolitical ambitions, and CCP officials frame the progress of DCEP as similar to advancements in other strategically important emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and robotics. DCEP’s development also comes against a backdrop of China’s broader push to internationalize the renminbi. Few technical details about DCEP are publicly confirmed. The PBOC has indicated that DCEP will have a two-tier structure, with the PBOC managing the back-end infrastructure while employing banks and other companies to aid in distribution to the public. It is clear that, despite much initial PBOC discussion about distributed ledger infrastructure, DCEP will not use blockchain as part of its design. DCEP is also likely to allow for some basic programmability involving its transactions and to offer users the opportunity to access the currency via software wallets. Despite some official statements and reporting about these general features, much of the precise operational architecture is still being worked out.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Finance, Data, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:
China and Asia

10. Assessing Asia: Sub-Saharan Africa Global Value Chain Linkages

Author:
Heiwai Tang, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, and Albert Zeufack
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the relationship between Asia’s economic engagements in Africa and individual African nations’ participation in global value chains (GVC) over the past two decades. We find that while overall exports from Africa to Asia are still highly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, a few African countries have exploited the emerging opportunities to diversify export portfolios through exporting to Asia. Each African nation has a distinct main trade partner in Asia, in contrast to the common view that China has become the dominant trade partner of most African nations. Using a panel data set for 46 African countries over 16 years from 2000 and 2015, we find that exports to Asia are positively correlated with exports to the rest of the world, suggesting that in contrast to trade diversion, trade with Asia complements exports to other countries. Asian economic engagement in the continent is associated with countries’ exports “moving up the value chain”, as measured by the upstreamness index proposed by Antras et al. (2012). However, such process was accompanied by a reduction in the length of their production chains, implying that fewer stages and countries are now involved in the production of exported goods.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Natural Resources, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Data
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Global Focus