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21. Diplomatic Ties and Community Engagement: A Dialogue with U.S. Ambassadors

Author:
Edgard Kagan, Marc E. Knapper, Heather Roach Variava, Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, and Ann Marie Murphy
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Speakers: The Honorable Edgard Kagan, U.S. Ambassador to Malaysia The Honorable Marc E. Knapper, U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam The Honorable Heather Roach Variava, U.S. Ambassador to Laos Moderators: Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, Dorothy Borg Chair in the History of the United States and East Asia, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Ann Marie Murphy, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar; Professor and Director, Center for Foreign Policy Studies, School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University Background: In the vibrant landscape of international education and cultural exchange, the connections between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are more significant than ever. Notably, almost 50,000 students from ASEAN member states enrich U.S. campuses with their perspectives, contributing to a rich tapestry of international dialogue. Furthermore, travel and tourism statistics from 2022 highlight the deepening of people-to-people ties, with nearly 578,000 visitors from ASEAN countries to the U.S. and almost 1.8 million Americans exploring the diverse cultures of ASEAN. Additionally, the vibrant Asian American community, with more than one-third of the estimated 24 million identifying with ASEAN ethnicities, underscores these regions' profound connections. Speakers' Bios: Edgard D. Kagan, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, was most recently the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council. Ambassador Kagan has previously served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. embassies in New Delhi, India and in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Consul General at the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai, India, and Deputy Director of the Washington Office of the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. A recipient of the Presidential Meritorious Award and numerous other State Department performance awards, Ambassador Kagan speaks French, Mandarin Chinese, Hungarian, and some Spanish. He is a cum laude graduate of Yale University. Marc E. Knapper is a member of the Senior Foreign Service of the U.S. Department of State and the Ambassador to Vietnam. He most recently served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan from August 2018 to July 2021. Prior to assuming this position, Marc was Chargé d’Affaires ad interim in Seoul from 2017 to 2018 and Deputy Chief of Mission from 2015 to 2016. Earlier assignments include Director for India Affairs, Director for Japan Affairs, and Seoul, Baghdad, Tokyo, and Hanoi. Marc is a recipient of the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award, the nation’s highest diplomatic honor. Marc has also received a Presidential Meritorious Service Award and the Department of State’s Linguist of the Year Award. He is a summa cum laude graduate of Princeton University, and also studied at the University of Tokyo, Middlebury College’s intensive Japanese program, the Army War College, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Seminar XXI program. Marc speaks Korean, Japanese, and Vietnamese. Heather Variava was sworn in as the U.S. Ambassador to the Lao People’s Democratic Republic on January 19, 2024. She is a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister Counselor. Previously, she served as Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Manila, Philippines. She also served as Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Mission to Indonesia, and as U.S. Consul General in Surabaya, Indonesia. In Washington, Ambassador Variava was Director of the Office of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. A member of the U.S. Foreign Service since 1996, Ambassador Variava has also served overseas in India, Mauritius, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Prior to joining the Foreign Service, Ambassador Variava worked as a newspaper reporter in Waterville, Maine. Raised in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Ambassador Variava received an undergraduate degree in International Relations from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. She holds master’s degrees from the University of Missouri and from the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom. In 2012, Ambassador Variava received a master’s degree in National Security Strategy from the National War College in Washington, D.C., and in 2014 she completed a fellowship in executive leadership with the International Women’s Forum (IWF). She is the recipient of numerous Meritorious and Superior Honor Awards, as well as a Presidential Rank Award. She speaks Indonesian and has studied Vietnamese, French, and German. This event is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by the New York Southeast Asian Network (NYSEAN).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:
Asia and United States of America

22. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces

Author:
Lin Htet Myat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

23. Regional Overview: Indo-Pacific as the 'Epicenter',

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Biden administration released its long-awaited National Security Strategy (NSS) this reporting period, along with unclassified versions of its National Defense Strategy and Missile Defense and Nuclear Posture Reviews. There were no big surprises. The NSS identified the Indo-Pacific as “the epicenter of 21st century geopolitics” and reaffirmed China as the “pacing challenge,” even while branding Russia as “an immediate threat to the free and open international system” as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. Underscoring the priority attached to the region, President Biden attended the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh and the G20 Summit in Bali, with Vice President Kamala Harris representing the United States at the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting in Bangkok. Kim Jong Un was not invited to any of the Asia summits but found other ways to attract attention, including some 70 ballistic missile launches for the year while announcing plans to rapidly produce and potentially use tactical nuclear weapons. Chinese President Xi Jinping, when not busy defending Pyongyang’s bad behavior, was busy orchestrating the 20th National People’s Congress, where he was elected “president for life.” Meanwhile, the tech war between Washington and Beijing continued to heat up, much to the dismay of many US allies and partners. More broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the region appeared discouraging even as the administration failed to put much additional meat on the bones of its own Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Other regional trade agreements continued apace, sans Washington, which struggled to get its own House (pun intended) in order as we continue to ponder the significance of the US mid-term elections.
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, Deterrence, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Asia and Indo-Pacific

24. ASEAN's medium- to long-term trade strategies and the direction of RoK-ASEAN cooperation

Author:
Sungil Kwak, Seungjin Cho, Jaewan Cheong, Jaeho Lee, Mingeum Shin, Nayoun Park, and So Eun Kim
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In recent years, the U.S.-China hegemony competition has intensified, dividing the world into two blocs. ASEAN has long culti-vated its position on the international stage by maintaining a certain distance between the United States and China. In that sense, ASEAN is the best partner for Korea to ef-fectively respond to the divided world. Therefore, this study seeks the directions of cooperation with ASEAN in supply chain, digital trade, climate change response, and health and development cooperation in line with changes in the international order.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. Europe’s Indo-Pacific Tilt: Estonian and Japanese Interests

Author:
Frank Jüris, Steven Blockmans, Kazuto Suzuki, Sanshiro Hosaka, and Maret Nukke
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Reshaped by the new great power competition, the international order has been undergoing revolutionary transformations. Revanchist Russia has unleashed a barbarian war against a sovereign European nation, while increasingly militarised and contentious China looms as a not-so-insidious threat in the Indo-Pacific. In response to these shifting dynamics and mounting geopolitical tensions, Europe is now awakening to the new reality and paying greater attention to the far-away region. At first glance, Estonia and Japan may seem like odd partners, yet they share vital commonalities and common interests impossible to ignore. Amidst Russia’s ongoing brutal invasion of Ukraine and China’s territorial claims over Taiwan, Japan’s strong advocacy in the Indo-Pacific region confirms how essential unity, consensus, and solidarity are for tackling global challenges in an environment of limited resources. This report brings together foreign and security policy experts to improve our understanding of each other’s security concerns — be it threats in cyber and information space, ruptures in trade, energy, and food, or authoritarian neighbours — by taking a step closer to a shared threat perception. Acknowledging unprecedented challenges to global security and rules-based order that democracy and democracies are confronted with from East to West, this report critically examines whether the European Union’s regional strategy maximises and realises the union’s full potential in the Indo-Pacific, which will test its actorness and agency and determine the role for the decades — if not centuries — to come. As the long-distance race for technological hegemony between the U.S. and China — of which Japan and Estonia are by far neither neutral nor casual observers — tightens, the report highlights national policies and capabilities needed to stay competitive, as well as to reduce known and potential vulnerabilities, from the perspective of economic security. China’s dramatic rise — as not only an economic but also a military superpower — entails an assertive and oftentimes assailing foreign policy that is felt both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific alike. The authoritarian regime in Beijing cleverly exploits the vacuum of power wherever it finds any. Cautioning against repeating the old mistakes of China-centrism, the report advocates for fostering multifaced cooperation with Japan in the framework of EU-Japan and Estonia-Japan relations. Thus, the report recommends that the EU as a whole and its individual member states should continue building on the positive momentum generated by the Indo-Pacific strategies and modify their approach to incorporate like-minded partners. From freedom of information to information- and cybersecurity, the report reminds us that leadership matters. It explains the changing tides in the Japanese mainstream public opinions that have already washed away the decades of harmful Russia-centrism from media, academia, and corridors of power and thus resulted in a society successfully resisting malign foreign disinformation campaigns. Estonia and Japan should facilitate digital transformation beyond their national borders, promote economic security, and exert geopolitical power through domestically produced sophisticated technology. The report also probes Sino-Russian relations from the perspective of Chinese strategic interests in its own neighbourhood. Able to contain the West by redirecting its focus and resources towards the war in Ukraine, Russia creates additional operation space for China in the Taiwan Strait. With the war raging In Europe, it should be clear that appeasing an aggressor with concessions and seemingly clever compromises only emboldens the latter, making it even more contentious in both territorial claims and bellicose actions. To prevent a conflict from breaking out in the Taiwan Strait, the EU should be building up allied immunity by counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific and proactively defending the rules-based world order.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Cybersecurity, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), ASEAN, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, Estonia, and Indo-Pacific

26. The COVID-19 Pandemic and World Machinery Trade Network

Author:
Kozo Kiyota
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In light of the importance of the machinery trade in global trade, this study examines whether the patterns of machinery exports changed significantly after the COVID-19 pandemic. Frameworks of network analysis and structural break analysis are applied to monthly level bilateral export data from January 2016 to March 2022. The main findings are threefold. First, positive structural change is found in exports in major machinery-exporting countries. Second, negative structural change in centrality is found in Japan and some ASEAN Member States (AMS), which implies a decline in the relative importance of these countries in the global machinery network. Third, the decline in Japanese centrality was not caused by the decline in export values or number of destination countries. Rather, it is attributable to the decline in the centrality of Japan’s export destination countries such as AMS. Noting that Japan has a relatively strong trade relationship with AMS, these results together suggest that the negative shock of the pandemic spread throughout the supply chain, which led to the decline in the relative importance of some countries – such as Japan – in the global machinery trade network.
Topic:
Exports, Trade, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Southeast Asia

27. ASEAN Digital Community 2045

Author:
Lili Yan Ing, Yessi Vadila, Ivana Markus, and Livia Feliciani Nazara
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has undergone significant development in digitalisation. The rapid digital transformation in ASEAN, however, has brought forth risks and challenges encompassing data security, cybersecurity, competition, and the digital divide. To effectively address these challenges and leverage the potential of the digital realm, ASEAN developed nine frameworks during 2016–2023. Yet, the focus is primarily on digital trade. We suggest that ASEAN embrace digital transformation by establishing the ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045. This vision could provide guidance to Member States, enabling them to overcome regional challenges and unlock their digital potential. It is crucial for ASEAN to nurture digital development across the three key pillars: political-security, economic, and socio-cultural dimensions. The three pillars should be built on four fundamental elements: data governance, value-added enhancement, improved digital connectivity, and digital inclusivity. Through the establishment of ADC 2045, ASEAN could position itself as a significant player in the global digital economy while ensuring that digital transformation aligns with its sustainable and inclusive development agenda.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Investment, Innovation, Trade, ASEAN, Connectivity, and Competition
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

28. Coalitions of the Week: BRICS, ASEAN, the G20

Author:
Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Supreme leader Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend (September 9-10) — thus nullifying the possibility of a meeting with top Western leaders including American counterpart President Joe Biden — is symptomatic of the isolation that China is facing on the international stage. Instead, Xi is sending Premier Li Qiang, not only to New Delhi but also to a series of meetings between Western and Asian powerhouses, including between the United States, Japan, and the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Jakarta, Indonesia. ASEAN members seem eager to seize the opportunity to promote free trade and high-tech cooperation with the United States and its Western allies, agreeing this week to inject more funds into projects under the U.S.—ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (InvestASEAN.org, September 7; The White House, September 5). By contrast, China’s recent business ties with ASEAN nations has been dominated by a continuous exodus of multinational corporations moving production bases from China and into countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Xi’s absence has raised eyebrows, particularly due to the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary has pulled out all the stops when it comes to expanding the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) clout on the global stage, even while ignoring worsening socio-economic conditions at home, such as rising youth unemployment, declining exports and consumer spending, and disappointing new home sales. Deemed a crypto-Maoist by China’s critics, the CCP chief remains convinced that, in the words of both Mao and himself, “the East is rising and the West is declining,” conditions which would allow the PRC to seize the geopolitical high ground given “opportunities that only come once in a century” (Gov.cn, June 23 ; Xinhua, March 23).
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, G20, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Asia

29. Playing the Long Game in the South China Sea

Author:
Andrew Mantong
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the South China Sea (SCS), as indeed the wider Indo-Pacific, the EU is facing a deepening strategic rivalry between China and the US. In the SCS, China has been able to create physical realities in defiance of international law by constructing artificial islands in the attempt to sustain its claims to the disputed Spratly and Paracel archipelagos as well as expand its military projection deep into international waters. The US is still the predominant security player in the Indo-Pacific, but its military presence has an increasingly hard time shoring up American power in the SCS. The security dilemma between the great powers is threatening rules-based multilateralism, which runs deep in the veins of the EU and to a great extent defines its international posture.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

30. EU–ASEAN: Shared Objectives, Severed Trust

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
After 45 years of diplomatic dialogue, EU-ASEAN relations continue to dawdle, lacking real ambition or political will from either side to invest more in the relationship. Even after a recent upgrade in the relationship to a strategic partnership (and continued pressure from the business communities on both sides to do more),the potentialof the EU-ASEAN relationship is still not well understood by policymakers. Due to factors that are largely outside of EU’s control, the region-to-region engagement has settled on incrementalism on technical issues (like air transport) or selective bilateral engagement on trade and digital economy. Meanwhile, China has been making inroads with its Belt and Road Initiative; Japan leans on CPTPP and bilateral assistance, and the Biden administration has launched the IPEF. Due to the many trade disputes, it was no surprise that ASEAN granted strategic partner status to even Russia and New Zealand before considering the EU. The palm oil conflict with ASEANs largest democracies (Indonesia, Malaysia) has been allowed to escalate to a point where it can no longer be compartmentalised to a trade issue. The absence of actual economic injury among Malaysian and Indonesian farmers also proves that the palm oil conflict is not an economic issue that can be settled financially, but about high politics and a matter of principles. New EU legislation on due diligence for deforestation and corporate sustainability, market regulation on forced labour, carbon border adjustment measures, foreign subsidies, and data governance are likely to result in further retaliation and escalation. Rightly or wrongly, ASEAN democracies do not perceive that the EU has yet earned the right to be heard. Hence, the EU needs to be aware of how it projects its values and interests in the region, understanding that it does not command moral authority; or that ASEAN operates differently based on personal engagement between leaders and shared interests. Conversely, ASEAN leaders should not simply write off EU-engagement as a middle-management preoccupation due to its technical nature, but rather see the EU as a counterweight in the region. ASEAN as a collective can serve as a strategic and transformative instrument. Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and even London, are all shifting their focus to the region, concluding that the race for influence over the Indo-Pacific ultimately boils down to influence over ASEAN.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific