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21. NATO in the North: The emerging division of labour in Northern European security

Author:
Matti Pesu
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Russian war of aggression has rendered Northern Europe an increasingly significant region for Euro-Atlantic security. A stable and secure Northern Europe is a critical precondition for a safe and stable Euro-Atlantic region. The alliance should treat Northern Europe as a strategic whole although the different subareas of Northern Europe have their distinctive security dynamics and concerns. NATO is currently improving its deterrence and defence posture. It is simultaneously shifting its military strategy from a model of deterrence by reinforcement to one of deterrence by denial. NATO’s evolving posture and strategy in Northern Europe should be underpinned by a more explicit division of labour. The regional allies and stakeholders can be divided into four categories in terms of their role in regional security: frontline nations, hubs, security providers and the ultimate security guarantor. The regional frontline nations include the Baltic states, Finland and Poland, which can also play a role as hubs and even security providers along with the United Kingdom and Germany. Denmark, Sweden and Norway are first and foremost hubs. The United States remains the ultimate security guarantor of the area.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, Nordic Nations, Arctic, and Baltic Sea

22. Russian aggression and the European Arctic: Avoiding the trap of Arctic exceptionalism

Author:
Harri Mikkola, Samu Paukkunen, and Pekka Toveri
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In its efforts to limit the Western defence posture in the Arctic, Russia has successfully exploited the “High North, low tension” mantra and the notion of the Arctic as an exceptional region of peace and cooperation. At the same time, Russia has managed to build its position of relative strength in the Arctic through systematically developing its military capabilities. To create a threat of escalation, Russia has also used offensive military exercises and disruptive hybrid operations against the Western Arctic states in the region. Arctic economic resources and military assets continue to play an essential role for Russia in pursuing its strategic goals, and for its ability to carry out acts of aggression. Through regional cooperative practices, the West has unintentionally facilitated this capacity. The West has limited its military activity in the Arctic to mitigate tensions. This has been a one-sided effort. The Western Arctic states should thus focus on building comprehensive deterrence in the region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Arctic

23. The Involvement of Civil Society Organizations in Arctic Governance

Author:
Emilie Broek, Nicholas Olczak, and Lisa Dellmuth
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The Arctic is faced with growing environmental and geopolitical challenges, which require international governance involving a range of actors. Existing research has a limited understanding of the role played by civil society organizations (CSOs) in the emerging governance of the region. This SIPRI Insights paper has reviewed the existing literature and used novel survey data to analyse the involvement of CSOs in terms of their roles and their beliefs in Arctic governance. It finds that CSOs monitor agreements and push for regional accountability, support the implementation of policies, engage in advocacy work, support information sharing and provide input during geopolitical crises. It also finds that CSOs have weak levels of belief in the legitimacy of Arctic governance institutions, or in the appropriateness and impact of their governance of the region. Based on these findings, the paper makes recommendations for the further involvement of CSOs in Arctic governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Governance, Geopolitics, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Arctic and Global Focus

24. The Arctic is Hot: Addressing the Social and Environmental Implications

Author:
Emilie Broek
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The Arctic is becoming more hotly contested and attracting new developments. The European Union (EU) is one actor that is turning to the Arctic to achieve its climate, energy, space-related and security goals. However, this increased interest can result in negative social and environmental local implications if not properly planned for and considered. This SIPRI Policy Brief provides an overview of the EU’s focus on the Arctic, with a particular focus on Kiruna, and the importance of human-centred and precautionary approaches.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Space, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Arctic

25. Feeling the chill: Navigating Arctic governance amid Russia’s war on Ukraine

Author:
Joanna Hosa
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine has highlighted the strategic importance of the Arctic and upended structures of cooperation between the western Arctic states and Russia, including the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council includes six organisations of indigenous peoples alongside the eight Arctic states, providing a platform for inclusive governance and the recognition and representation of the Arctic’s indigenous population. The participation of indigenous peoples in Arctic governance is key to upholding Europe’s values-based foreign policy and effective governance in the region, particularly against the backdrop of Russia’s values war with the West. The war has divided the Arctic into two camps – one including the Western Arctic states and the other comprising the Russian Arctic – with both sides exploring alternative avenues for cooperation. In this uncertain context, European governments need to preserve indigenous peoples’ participation in existing and emerging forums of cooperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Arctic

26. Defending America’s Northern Border and Its Arctic Approaches Through Cooperation With Allies and Partners

Author:
Heather A Conley, Sophie Arts, Kristine Berzina, and Mathieu Boulegue
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the evolving situation in the Arctic in the wake of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has not reduced Russia’s military focus or significantly affected its posture in the Arctic: rather, the authors find, it has exacerbated a dynamic of heightened tension and rising instability that started in the mid-2000s and that most policymakers in Arctic capitals chose to ignore. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and—perhaps most importantly—changing Sino-Russian relations have increased the urgency to address existing gaps in the United States and its allies’ Arctic strategy, posture, and capabilities.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Arctic and United States of America

27. The Arctic within EU Strategies: A Renewed Centrality

Author:
Luca Cinciripini
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In June 2023, the Arctic Council resumed its work after a year’s suspension in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[1] The Council is a pillar of the institutional architecture of the region; the main framework for cooperation between the Arctic states that also involves the North’s indigenous peoples in issues of environmental protection and sustainable development. In recent years, the overlap between climate and security crises has profoundly transformed the region, generating economic opportunities but also endangering local populations and amplifying international competition.[2] The European Union, which is increasingly interested in the issue of climate security (the multiplier effect of climate change and its, even indirect, impact on security risks spanning several dimensions – economic, human and political),[3] has long tried to devise an Arctic policy that takes into account such changes by tackling emerging challenges and grasping opportunities. To better address these issues, since 2013 the EU has been applying for full observer status to the Council; however, it has only been permitted to observe the organisation’s activities without a formalisation of its role. At the same time, however, to be able to play an active role in the region, the EU’s strategy must cover the full width of the Arctic institutional architecture, which encompasses a plurality of diplomatic, legal and institutional instruments that go beyond the framework of the Council.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Arctic

28. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

29. Infrastructure Challenges in the Alaskan Arctic

Author:
Henry Lee
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Infrastructure in northern Alaska requires special attention. Challenging weather conditions— including cold temperatures, remote conditions, limited transportation and logistical support, and inadequate technical capacity—result in higher costs and less reliability. These challenges are exacerbated by climate change. Permafrost thaw undermines the stability of foundations, causing building subsidence. Portions of roads are sinking, pipelines are being damaged, and utility poles are toppling over. In addition, climate change is accelerating the disappearance of sea ice, resulting in storm-caused tidal surges that erode and flood the land, causing buildings to collapse and people to lose their homes. Before discussing the current and future challenges caused by climate change, it is useful to briefly discuss the patterns of development in northern Alaska. Most of the population lives in small villages either on the coast or along small rivers. The largest “cities”—Nome, Kotzebue, and Barrow (Utqiagvik)—have populations of around 3,000 people.1 Most of the villages are not connected by roads, and there is no interconnected electricity transmission, water, or sewerage system. Transportation between villages for both goods and people is by boat or plane—the latter can be quite expensive. Hence transporting materials and equipment for infrastructure assets can add significantly to the costs of the services that they provide. The absence of regional electric grids means that each village must rely on either mini-grids or self-generation, which are neither efficient nor cheap. The primary source of energy is diesel fuel. Except for larger coastal communities, diesel oil must be flown into villages, increasing fuel costs to more than double the cost of similar fuels in the lower 48 states. Providing adequate water and sanitation services is a major challenge due to the inability to bury pipes. There is a wide range of sanitation services. Some villages have relatively modern systems, while others are dependent on primitive systems which haul away sewage in buckets. The cost of installing adequate water and sanitation services in northwest Alaska can be several times higher than installing similar systems in the southern part of the state.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and Arctic

30. Arctic Shipping: Trends, Challenges and Ways Forward

Author:
Andrey Todorov
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Arctic is continuing to warm three to four times faster than the global average and the sea ice extent is declining precipitously during all months of the year. Due to these trends, shipping activity in the region has expanded significantly over the past two decades. This brings new challenges to maritime safety, sensitive ecosystems, and local people.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Governance, Geopolitics, Public Policy, and Shipping
Political Geography:
Arctic