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301. Iraq and the Kurds: The High-Stakes Hydrocarbons Gambit

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simmering conflict over territories and resources in north-ern Iraq is slowly coming to a boil. In early April 2012, the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) suspended its supply of oil for export through the national Iraqi pipeline, claiming Baghdad had not fully repaid operating costs to producing companies. The federal government responded by threatening to deduct what the oil would have generated in sales from the KRG's annual budget allocation, poten-tially halving it. This latest flare-up in perennially tense Erbil-Baghdad relations has highlighted the troubling fact that not only have the two sides failed to resolve their dif-ferences but also that, by striking out on unilateral courses, they have deepened them to the point that a solution appears more remote than ever. It is late already, but the best way forward is a deal between Baghdad and Erbil, centred on a federal hydrocarbons law and a compromise on dis-puted territories. International actors – the UN with its tech-nical expertise, the U.S. given its unique responsibility as well as strategic interest in keeping things on an even keel – should launch a new initiative to bring the two back to the table.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

302. Lost in Transition: The World according to Egypt's SCAF

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since it assumed power after Hosni Mubarak's ouster, the performance of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been, at times, head-scratching. Extolled in the wake of the uprising as the revolution's protector, many have come to view it as an agent of the counter-revolution. It often has been obstinate, before abruptly yielding to pressure. It values its long ties with Washington, from which it receives much assistance, but seemed willing to jeopardise them by targeting U.S.-funded NGOs. Suspected by Islamists of seeking to deprive them of opportunity to govern and by non-Islamists of entering a secret pact with the Muslim Brotherhood, it finds itself in the worst of both worlds: an angry tug-of-war with liberal protesters and a high-wire contest with Islamists. It displays little interest in governing, wishing instead to protect privileges, but erratic behaviour threatens even that. On the eve of presidential elections that have become a high-stakes free-for-all, the SCAF should take a step back and, with the full range of political actors, agree on principles for a genuine and safe political transition.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

303. America's Asia-Pacific Strategy and Turkish-American Partnership

Author:
Kılıç Buğra Kanat
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The debate on the future of the Turkish-American partnership has puzzled scholars in recent years due to its constant fluctuations. In the first year of the Obama administration, the parties tried to heal relations with high level exchanges and a new conceptual framework to define the relationship. However, in 2010 the discord between the US and Turkey on major policy issues, including Iran and relations with Israel, once again strained bilateral relations. With the Arab Spring, the pendulum swung once again. Since the eruption of the people's movement in different parts of the Middle East, Turkey and the US have acted in coordination, and taken similar positions in debates in international forums. The Obama administration announced a new Asia-Pacific strategy, which will entail the concentration of its diplomatic, military, and economic resources to build partnerships and curb emerging threats in this region. This new doctrine mayhave a major impact on US relations with Turkey by opening up new opportunities for cooperation and new necessities to deepen the partnership.
Political Geography:
America, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

304. The Narrative of the Occident by Georg Schmid

Author:
M. Akif Kireçci
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, and Arabia

305. Arab League's Syrian Policy

Author:
Müjge Küçükkeleş
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Suspension of Syria's Arab League membership in November 2011 could be characterized as a turning point in Arab league's 66-year old history. By condemning the Syrian and Libyan regimes for disproportionate use of violence against their own people, the Arab League has somewhat found rightful the demand of Arab people. the League has signaled with these decisions that it would move away from ideas of Arab nationalism and Arab unity in pursuit of further integration with the international system. On the other hand, the authoritarian state systems of most of the member states of the League make it difficult to regard Arab League decisions as steps supporting democracy. The League's ''democratic stance'' is an outcome of the pressure of revolutions as much as of harmony of interests among the member states. Even though strengthening democracy in the region seems like an unrealistic desire of member states, these decisions push each member towards thinking about change and thus pave the way for democratic reform process. The study at hand consists of two parts. The first part addresses the League's policy proposals, decisions, and reactions regarding the Syrian crisis and concentrates on what these all policy measures mean for the League as a regional organization. The second part examines regional dynamics that play a crucial role in the current crisis by looking at different positions of regional and global actors on the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Syria

306. À propos de la complexité des révoltes dans les pays arabes

Author:
Nizar Messari
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Pour m'atteler à la tâche d'essayer de comprendre les bouleversements dans le monde Arabe au cours de l'année 2011, je me propose dans cet article d'analyser ces événements à la lumière de quelques modèles théoriques qui visent à expliquer les mobilisations sociales et populaires, d'abord pour fournir une clé pour comprendre ces événements et ensuite pour analyser ce que ces mobilisations ont apporté aux modèles théoriques préexistant. Deux questions différentes mais liées s'imposent : pourquoi plusieurs peuples arabes se sontils soulevés au cours de l'année 2011 ? Pourquoi l'ontils fait d'une façon presque simultanée ? D'un point de vue théorique, la littérature qui existe nous dirige vers deux concepts explicatifs : le premier est l'existence de structures d´opportunités politiques préalables qui ont balisé le chemin pour plus de réformes, alors que le second est l'existence d'un réseau d'événements, non pas liés mais mutuellement influençables, et dont l'évolution influence les événements dans les autres pays. Dans le cas des révoltes de 2011 dans les pays Arabes, les leçons à tirer sont que, si parler de structures d'opportunités politiques indique une inclinaison vers la structure au détriment de l'acteur, les révoltes de 2011 dans le monde Arabe ont indiqué le rôle central que les acteurs peuvent jouer dans les mobilisations, et obligent ainsi à une certaine adaptation du modèle des structures d'opportunités politiques.
Political Geography:
Arabia

307. Economic Policies in Egypt: Populism or Reform?

Author:
Mohsin Khan and Svetlana Milbert
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Arab Spring that swept the Middle East last year dramatically altered the political landscape of the region for the better with the overthrow of autocratic regimes. But it also generated considerable uncertainty over the future of economic policies and economic reforms in the Arab world. Will the political transition triggered by the Arab Spring lead to a continuation of the market-oriented economic reforms that most Arab countries had embarked upon over the past two decades, or will more populist regimes emerge that will undo these reforms and adopt economic policies that cater primarily to the immediate demands of the restive public?
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

308. Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu Politikası

Author:
Kemal İnat
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East has confronted with more and novel security challenges in 2012. The problematic issues related to Arab revolutions of 2011 have already had negative repercussions for Ankara. As a result of diverging policy choices toward the Arab revolutions, these conflicting issues caused more strained relations between Turkey and its neighbors in the region. Regional actors divided over how to respond to political deadlocks in the Middle East. While Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have sided together, Iran, Syria and the central government of Iraq have made their policies jointly. This very division between the regional actors has increased the security risks within the Middle East. These two camps have particularly conflicting policy agendas and as a result, they have become part of a “proxy war” in Syria which constitutes the biggest security threat to the whole region. Despite the deteriorating situation in Syria and its own tense political environment domestically, Turkey, has continued to strengthen its economic relations with the Middle Eastern capitals except Damascus. It was partly a result of this policy that Turkey's export toward the Middle East increased significantly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Damascus, and Ankara

309. İran 2012

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has resulted in a shift in the nature of Iran's regional foreign policy from a traditional 'resistance' strategy to a 'new engagement' approach. The new approach aims to strike a balance between strengthening cooperation with states in the region such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and containing threats through maintaining traditional relations with ideological movements. In addition to the new strategic engagement policy, however, the nuclear issue has been constrained Iran's real economic and foreign policy capacity during 2012. The deepening economic crisis and rising inflation rates have also negatively affect Iran's domestic affairs and caused a new fragmentation among the conservative block. The legislative election held on March 2012 was the best example to understand this separation in Iranian domestic politics. In this article, it is analysed Iranian bilateral and regional relations by particularly focusing on its position regarding Arab Spring, nuclear issue and regional developments during 2012.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Iran, Arabia, and Egypt

310. Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 2012

Author:
Mustafa Caner
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
2012 yılı Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) açısından oldukça önemli gelişmeleri ihtiva eden bir yıl olmuştur. İç politikada yönetime muhalif bir takım hareketlenmeler yaşanmış ve bu hareketlenmeler sert bir biçimde bastırılmıştır. Genel olarak BAE, bu hareketlerin Müslüman Kardeşler ile ilgili olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Arap Baharı'nın sonucunda Mısır'da iktidara gelen Müslüman Kardeşler'in kendi muhaliflerini etkileyebileceklerinden çekinmektedir. İç politikadaki gelişmelerin etkisiyle dış politikada da bazı gelişmeler olmuştur. İran ve Mısır ile bazı sorunlar yaşanmıştır. İran ile yaşanan sorunlar Ebu Musa adası üzerindeki egemenlik iddialarıyla ilgiliyken Mısır ile yaşanan sorunların Müslüman Kardeşler hakkında olduğu söylenebilir. Yeraltı kaynakları (petrol, doğalgaz vs.) bakımından oldukça zengin bir ülke olan BAE, dış politikadaki açık, barışçıl ve diyaloğa dayalı tutumunu söz konusu ekonomik saikler uyarınca gerçekleştirmektedir. 2012 yılında da bu bağlamda birçok ikili anlaşma ve ekonomik işbirliği gerçekleştirilmiştir. BAE söz konusu bakımdan uluslararası sermayenin, finans ekonomisinin, teknoloji yatırımlarının çekim merkezi konumundadır. Ekonomik olarak stratejik bir öneme sahip BAE'de, bu ekonomik potansiyel belki de yönetime muhalif seslerin kısılmasını mümkün kılmıştır.
Political Geography:
Arabia