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111. Complicity in Iraq: How Deep?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam Husayn's regime. According to the Washington Post, the United States intends to conduct a "de-Baathification" program in Iraq similar in some ways to the "de-Nazification" program conducted in Germany in the wake of World War II. Although the details of this program are still to be worked out, the Post indicated that complicity in "human rights and weapons abuses" would be key criteria in determining which Iraqi officials would be permitted to keep their jobs.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany

112. Lebanese Military Deployment to the South: Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the reverberations to follow.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

113. Iraq's Al-Samoud: A Missile with Great Possibilities

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of attaining a range 22 percent greater than that allowed under UN restrictions is a "prima facie" case for their proscription. Yet, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has said, "There is no serious violation," and it is unclear whether Baghdad would obey a destruction order. Understanding the significance of the al-Samoud requires a closer look at the missile's developmental history, technical capabilities, and strategic purpose.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

114. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?

Author:
Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

115. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo

Author:
Osama el-Baz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo

116. Placing Iraq and Zarqawi in the Terror Web

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 6 address to the United Nations Security Council, some questioned his description of the "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network." In fact, the relationship between Baghdad and terrorism mirrors the way in which today's international terrorist groups function: not as tightly structured hierarchies, but rather as shadowy networks that, when necessary, strike ad hoc tactical alliances bridging religious and ideological schisms. Osama bin Laden's recent call on Muslims to come to Iraq's defense, even as he derided the "infidel" regime in Baghdad, is a case in point.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

117. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:
Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

118. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English

Author:
Merissa Khurma
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

119. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

120. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options

Author:
Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia