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52. Libya: Beyond Regime Change
- Author:
- Henrik Boesen Lindbo Larsen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- NATO's intervention in Libya has highlighted the risks connected with enforcement of humanitarian principles in Europe's neighbourhood through engaging in regime change. The EU now seems to remain the only viable forum if the Western states wish to play a more permanent role in Libya.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
53. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
54. Revolution in the Arab World: The Long View
- Author:
- William Zartman, Laleh Khalili, Jillian Schwedler, and Gamal Eid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- In January and February 2011, populist uprisings toppled the authoritarian governments of Tunisia and Egypt, and similar revolts began to emerge in other Arab states, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. An article in the 18 March 2011 issue of the Chronicle Review by Ursula Lindsey, "The Suddenly New Study of Egypt," addressed how these events had turned the study of persistent authoritarianism in the Arab world on its head. No longer, for example, could scholars point to how Egyptians and other Arabs tend to engage in one of two extremes: political apathy or political violence. Lindsey also suggested that scholars shift their focus away from the power of elites to the strength of ordinary people and grass-roots movements, or retool their scholarship to allow for, in the case of Egypt, more emphasis on groups other than the Muslim Brotherhood as significant sources of opposition.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
55. The Failure of Jihad in Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Thomas Hegghammer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- This paper traces and assesses al-Qa'ida''s efforts to launch an insurgency in Saudi Arabia from the mid-1990s until today. It examines the background of Usama bin Ladin's 1996 declaration of jihad, al-Qa'ida's activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2002, and the causes and evolution of the campaign waged by the group “al-Qa'ida on the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) from 2003 to 2006.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula
56. War in Saada: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge
- Author:
- Christopher Boucek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Yemen's leaders consider their sporadic war against the Houthi rebels a conflict they can win and, in so doing, discourage southern secessionists—a more immediate threat to their hold on power and the nation's territorial integrity. Instead, this war in the North has exposed greater vulnerabilities for the regime, weakened the central government, and emboldened other threats to Yemeni and global stability such as al-Qaeda.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arabia
57. Oil and the Eruption of the Algerian Civil War: A Context-sensitive Analysis of the Ambivalent Impact of Resource Abundance
- Author:
- Miriam Shabafrouz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Algeria's intrastate war in the 1990s, during which militant Islamists and the state fought fiercely against each other, still raises questions concerning the decisive factors leading to its onset and escalation. This paper uses the resource curse approach and the rentier state theory to understand the impact resource wealth could have had on the outbreak of this violent conflict, then goes one step further, adopting a context‐sensitive approach. This approach attempts to juxtapose those conditions directly linked to the resource sector with the general conflict‐fueling conditions diagnosed in Algeria. It takes into account conditions both within the country and in the international context. The application of a context matrix allows us to examine the interplay of resource‐related factors and other conflict-driving forces, such as socioeconomic, demographic and ideological changes. Such an approach not only broadens the general understanding of the resource‐violence link but also enhances our understanding of the eruption of violence in Algeria.
- Topic:
- Islam, Oil, Terrorism, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa
58. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia
59. Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prematurely and exaggeratedly highlighted by the regime, belatedly and reluctantly acknowledged by the opposition, the presence of a powerful Salafi strand among Syria's rebels has become irrefutable. That is worrisome, but forms only part of a complex picture. To begin, not all Salafis are alike; the concept covers a gamut ranging from mainstream to extreme. Secondly, present-day Syria offers Salafis hospitable terrain – violence and sectarianism; disenchantment with the West, secular leaders and pragmatic Islamic figures; as well as access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow – but also adverse conditions, including a moderate Islamic tradition, pluralistic confessional make-up, and widespread fear of the kind of sectarian civil war that engulfed two neighbours. Thirdly, failure of the armed push this past summer caused a backlash against Salafi groups that grabbed headlines during the fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
60. Contexts of Language in Mahmoud Darwish
- Author:
- Ibrahim Muhawi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores three contexts of language in Mahmoud Darwish's poetry. The first is Darwish's performative use of language. The second deals with reading Darwish as a resistance poet. The third is Darwish's death, which I interpret as part of his language. This last point is speculative but of considerable interest in view of the role he assumed as the poetic voice of Palestine.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia