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102. The Egyptian Military and the Fate of the Regime
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) is perhaps the key actor in the current crisis. Although it has largely remained aloof from the struggle in the streets and has yet to show its hand regarding the fate of the regime, many are counting on it to act in the nation's interest, force President Hosni Mubarak from power, and facilitate a smooth transition to a successor government. This places a great deal of responsibility on the EAF and makes understanding its role in the process essential. Observers inside and outside Egypt should not take for granted that the military will either do "the right thing" or act monolithically. It is an actor with many faces and capacities, and one whose internal motivations and processes can be seen only dimly at the moment.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Egypt
103. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
104. Protests in Yemen: President Saleh Promises Change
- Author:
- Daniel Green
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 2, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, declared that he would not press for a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek another term during the next election, currently scheduled for 2013. He also pledged that he would not pass power to his son, Ahmed, head of the country's Republican Guard. His remarks were apparently intended to preempt a "day of rage" in the capital, Sana, scheduled by opposition groups for February 3. In addition to parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, Washington will be watching with great attention given Yemen's reputation as a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and its supporters.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
105. On the Record
- Author:
- Mohammed ElBaradei
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna
106. Egypt's Security Forces: A Key Factor in the Crisis
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The current wave of protests in Egypt has pitted thousands of demonstrators against the police and Central Security Forces (CSF). The performance of these forces is key to the outcome of the crisis. If they can contain the demonstrations without excessive violence, the protests will likely burn themselves out over time. But if the demonstrations continue or escalate into greater violence, the police and CSF could break down, either dissolving entirely or engaging in undisciplined violence that further exacerbates the situation. Such a scenario, or even the likelihood of it, would probably spur the government to deploy army personnel to support the security forces, deter further demonstrations, and, if necessary, put down the protests through force. That would be a true crisis for the government, one with an uncertain outcome.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Egypt
107. Will Egypt's 'Day of Rage' Become a Revolution?
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter and David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Inspired by events in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets on January 25 in major cities from Alexandria to Cairo, the largest demonstrations to hit the country since the bread riots of the 1970s. The government, which did not initially confront demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square, finally took forceful action to remove them late last night. Today, January 26, the Interior Ministry announced that public gatherings and protests will no longer be tolerated; there were further clashes in Cairo and Suez. More protests are anticipated after Friday prayers (January 28). Will the government's tactics quell the demonstrations or cause them to spread? And what approach should Washington take?
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Cairo
108. Military Holds Key to Egypt's Future: Interview with Bernard Gwertzman
- Author:
- Bruce K. Rutherford
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- As protests continued in Cairo, questions intensified about when and how President Hosni Mubarak would step aside and what kind of transitional government might replace him. The "key actor" at this time is Egypt's military leadership, which is concerned about growing violence, economic damage, and continued instability, says Bruce K. Rutherford, author of Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World. "If they want these demonstrations to end, they can either intervene and use force to disperse the demonstrators or they can ask President Mubarak to leave," he says, which would indicate the army's belief that Mubarak's continued presence is destabilizing. Rutherford says the opposition has organized a ten-person leadership group headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, but that Egyptians are skeptical about the government's offer to open discussions with the opposition because in the past, such dialogues haven't led to any change. He says a possible successor to Mubarak may be former foreign minister Amr Moussa, currently head of the Arab League.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
109. Social Media in the Arab World: Leading up to the Uprisings of 2011
- Author:
- Jeffrey Ghannam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- This paper was commissioned and largely reported in the period leading up to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere in the region in early 2011. It is published as a stage-setter for the events that are rapidly unfolding in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia
110. The dynamics of Egypt's protest: an inside view
- Author:
- Moaaz Elzoughby
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian protest movement eventually won a historic victory with the achievement of its main demand, the resignation of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt's presidency. But the seventeen tumultuous days from the start of the demonstrations on 25 January until the president's departure on 11 February were far from straightforward in their course. In this eyewitness report, a researcher who was present during the crucial days when Cairo's Tahrir Square became the centre of the revolt reveals how the social composition and the moods of the movement fluctuated throughout the protest. Nothing was predetermined; even the events that led to the occupation of the square itself had elements of contingency about them. The interplay between a minority of politicised participants and a much larger group of non-political young people from Cairo's neighbourhoods was at the heart of the shifts that took place, which were in turn influenced by the tactics of security forces and the character of official media coverage. These factors, critical to the evolution of the movement and the outcome of the protest, may continue to be important in shaping the aftermath of Egypt's revolt.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt