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172. Obstacles to a Resolution of the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- David W. Lesch
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This is the final report of the Harvard-NUPI-Trinity Syria Research Project (HNT). The project is sponsored by Harvard Negotiation Project at Harvard University (Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA), the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (or NUPI, Oslo, Norway), and Trinity University (San Antonio, Texas, USA).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- America, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
173. Next Steps in Syria
- Author:
- Judith S. Yaphe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Nearly 3 years since the start of the Syrian civil war, no clear winner is in sight. Assassinations and defections of civilian and military loyalists close to President Bashar al-Asad, rebel success in parts of Aleppo and other key towns, and the spread of violence to Damascus itself suggest that the regime is losing ground to its opposition. The tenacity of government forces in retaking territory lost to rebel factions, such as the key town of Qusayr, and attacks on Turkish and Lebanese military targets indicate, however, that the regime can win because of superior military equipment, especially airpower and missiles, and help from Iran and Hizballah. No one is prepared to confidently predict when the regime will collapse or if its opponents can win.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
174. Is sectarian balance in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar at risk?
- Author:
- Ahmad Khalid Majidyar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The Persian Gulf states of Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have largely been immune to the rising tide of sectarianism that has rocked the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring. The three monarchies have successfully integrated their Shi'ite minority populations into their countries' sociopolitical and economic spheres, giving those populations little reason to engage in violence or seek political guidance from Iran or Iraq. Omani, Qatari, and Emirati Shi'ites strongly identify themselves as citizens of their respective countries and remain loyal to their ruling regimes. However, the spillover effects of the Syrian civil war—a sectarian conflict between the Shi'ite Iran-Hezbollah-Assad axis and the opposition groups backed by regional Sunni governments—are threatening Sunni-Shi'ite stability in the UAE, Qatar, and to a lesser degree, Oman. The United States should help maintain harmony in these states by reaching out to independent Shi'ite business communities and by working with regional leaders to ensure equal citizenship, political rights, and religious freedom among minority populations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, Post Colonialism, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, Oman, and United Arab Emirates
175. Saudi Arabia's forgotten Shi'ite Spring
- Author:
- Ahmad Khalid Majidyar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- For decades the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been America's indispensable ally in the Middle East, and the Kingdom's stability remains vital for US strategic interests in the region. While antigovernment protests in the Kingdom's Sunni-majority regions have been small and sporadic in the wake of Arab Spring, there has been an unremitting unrest in the strategic Eastern Province, home to Saudi Arabia's marginalized Shi'ite minority and major oil fields. As in the 1980s, if government repression and discrimination push the Shi'ites to extremes, some may resort to violence and terrorism, jeopardizing American interests in the region, benefitting Iran and al-Qaeda, disrupting the equilibrium of global oil markets, and adversely affecting economic recovery in the West. To ensure lasting stability in the Kingdom, the United States must work with the Saudi government to achieve gradual but meaningful reforms that include integrating the Shi'ites into the Kingdom's sociopolitical system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
176. Has Kuwait reached the sectarian tipping point?
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Kuwait is perhaps America's closest Arab ally; it remains the only country in the Middle East on whose behalf the United States went to war. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran has at times tried to leverage Kuwait's large Shi'ite minority against the Kuwaiti state, it has mostly been unsuccessful. Indeed, Kuwait's Shi'ite community has repeatedly worked to prove its loyalty to Kuwait. Recent political instability, however, is again opening the door for sectarian forces to undermine Kuwait and, by extension, an important pillar of US defense strategy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Islam, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
177. Conference Report: The Maghreb in Transition
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Arabia, and North Africa
178. The Myth or Reality of US Energy Independence
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- US “independence” from energy imports has been a key source of political dispute ever since the October War in 1973 and the Arab oil embargo that followed. Much of this debate has ignored or misstated the nature of the data available on what the US options are, as well as the uncertainties involved in making any long range projections.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
179. You Say You Want a Revolution...Then What? The Challenges of Media Training in Post-Qaddafi Libya: A First-Person Essay
- Author:
- Carolyn Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- CIMA announces the release of a special report, You Say You Want a Revolution … Then What?, a first-person account by veteran journalist and media trainer Carolyn Robinson of her experiences training broadcast journalists in Libya after the death of leader Moammar Qaddafi. Robinson outlines some of the unusual obstacles and challenges she faced in managing two USAID/OTI grants in Libya for Internews in the very early days after the revolution, and how her team came up with novel approaches to overcome the special circumstances they faced on the ground. Her essay is not so much about what can and should be done for media development in Libya today, but about how to structure training in chaotic post-conflict environments.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Oil, Mass Media, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
180. Diplomacy, Development and Security in the Information Age
- Author:
- Shanthi Kalathil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- From Wikileaks to the aftermath of the Arab Spring, policymakers have been confronted with the thorny ramifications of ubiquitous global information flows. Two key phenomena have emerged as the new hallmarks of international relations: heightened transparency and increased volatility. They require a refocusing of the lens through which we view international affairs, and present both challenges and opportunities for state and non-state actors. These themes and more are explored in a new collection of essays, Diplomacy, Development and Security in the Information Age, edited by Shanthi Kalathil. Featuring contributions on issues ranging from cybersecurity to diplomacy and fragile states, the book points toward a foreign policy strategy of resilience, credibility and adaptability for harnessing opportunities in the information age.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Globalization, Post Colonialism, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Arabia