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101. Report No.6: A Transforming Arab World: Between Continuity and Change

Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Almost three years after the start of the Arab uprisings, it is time to reflect on what has changed and what has not as a consequence of the recent developments in the Mediterranean. Some important steps forward have been taken, as reflected by the increasing weight of civil society organizations, the birth of independent media or the gilding of free elections. However, it is still too early to draw form conclusions on the outcomes of the transitional processes and remarkable challenges lay ahead for Southern Mediterranean countries. Economy, security, and social and political polarisation are among the most pressing priorities.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Politics, Elections, and Media
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

102. Conference Report: Partnership in Transition: The Nordic Countries and the Arab Spring

Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The conference organized jointly by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, the Tampere Peace Research Institute and the EuroMeSCo research network sought to contextualize the on-going transition processes in the Arab world and to share Nordic experiences and models of democratic governance with countries in transition. To this end the conference considered the potential role of the “Nordic model” as a template and comparator for change in the Arab world and reflected on possible avenues of dialogue and cooperation between the Nordic and Arab countries. The conference also highlighted the need for greater attention and analysis of the problems and issues involved in regional transition processes amongst Nordic countries.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and Nordic Nations

103. Decoding Al-Qaeda's Strategy: The Deep Battle Against America

Author:
Michael W. S. Ryan
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
By consulting the work of well-known and obscure al-Qaeda theoreticians, Michael W. S. Ryan finds jihadist terrorism strategy has more in common with the principles of Maoist guerrilla warfare than mainstream Islam. Encouraging strategists and researchers to devote greater attention to jihadi ideas rather than jihadist military operations, Ryan builds an effective framework for analyzing al-Qaeda's plans against America and constructs a compelling counternarrative to the West's supposed "war on Islam." Ryan examines the Salafist roots of al-Qaeda ideology and the contributions of its most famous founders, Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a political-military context. He also reads the Arabic-language works of lesser known theoreticians who have played an instrumental role in framing al-Qaeda's so-called war of the oppressed. These authors readily cite the guerrilla strategies of Mao, Che Guevara, and the mastermind of the Vietnam War, General Giap. They also incorporate the arguments of American theorists writing on "fourth-generation warfare." Through these texts, readers experience events as insiders see them, and by concentrating on the activities and pronouncements of al-Qaeda's thought leaders, especially in Yemen, they discern the direct link between al-Qaeda's tactics and trends in anti-U.S. terrorism. Ryan shows al-Qaeda's political-military strategy to be a revolutionary and largely secular departure from the classic Muslim conception of jihad, adding invaluable dimensions to the operational, psychological, and informational strategies already deployed by America's military in the region.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries
Publication Identifier:
9780231533270
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

104. Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook 2012

Author:
Hans Mouritzen (ed) and Nanna Hvidt (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs analyses Danish foreign-policy priorities in 2011. The troublesome situation for the global econ-omy, including an uncertain outlook for the future, was the most impor-tant backdrop for Danish foreign policy in that year. Low growth prospects, combined with high levels of public debt, had wide foreign-policy implica-tions, amongst other things for the agenda of the EU and as a result also for the preparations for the Danish EU Presidency in the first half of 2012. This article therefore takes its point of departure in the state of the global economy, the state of the European economies and the challenges that this presented to the EU. It then goes on to discuss the emerging world powers, the Arab Spring, the world's conflict areas, security policy, Denmark's north-ern neighbours and various global issues, such as development cooperation, green growth and human rights. Finally, some reflections are offered on the core tasks of the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs at a time when there is increased pressure on Denmark's public finances and the world influence of Denmark's traditional partners and allies is waning.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arab Countries, Denmark, and North Africa

105. Rise of the Maliki Regime

Author:
Joel D. Rayburn
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
One year into the “Arab Spring,” it must be said that Iraq has bucked the prevailing trend in the Arab world. While grassroots movements in half a dozen other Arab countries have dismantled or shaken authoritarian regimes, a new one is being built in Iraq. During the revolutionary year of 2011, the government of Prime Minister Nuri Maliki consolidated its power, violently suppressing a popular protest movement and cracking down on political rivals at home, while intervening in two “Arab Spring” crises abroad. In doing so, the Maliki government has created a high risk of blowback from its foreign policy initiatives, while doing little to address the underlying causes of domestic Iraqi unrest, which will continue to fester. In Iraq today, it is increasingly appropriate to speak not of the Iraqi government, or of a Shi'a-dominated government, but rather of a Maliki regime. The “Malikists”—or, in Arabic, the “Malikiyoun”—are the newly-dominant force in Iraqi politics, an analog to the “Saddamists” or “Saddamiyoun” that Iraqis once knew. These are the officials and operators who have enabled Prime Minister Maliki to consolidate control of state power and gradually marginalize other major political blocs while doing so. On an individual level, the Malikiyoun do not really represent Maliki's Da'wa party. In the innermost circle, the Malikiyoun are instead composed of Maliki's family and personal advisors, both official and unofficial. Those Malikiyoun who do hail from Da'wa tend to be “orphans”: Da'wa members who have no independent base of their own in the party or in the larger movement that spawned it. The Malikiyoun also include a sizeable contingent of former Ba'athists, some of whom once worked directly for Saddam or other senior leaders in the old regime. These Ba'athists-turned-Malikiyoun are especially common in the intelligence services and among Maliki's political generals, who were almost all formerly high-ranking officers in Saddam's army. In sectarian terms, the Malikiyoun are majority Shi'a, and exhibit clear favoritism toward their sect along with extreme distrust, sometimes crossing into paranoia, toward Sunnis and the Ba'ath. But they are not driven first and foremost by Shi'a sectarian interests. In fact, they include Sunnis, Kurds, and a few other minorities among their ranks. Though the Malikiyoun will certainly play the Shi'a sectarian card when it serves their political purposes, they are just as ready to suppress Shi'a opponents as Sunni ones. Nor are the Malikiyoun Iranian puppets, though they are, for the present, aligned with the Iranian regime's foreign policy in the region. As a result, the Maliki regime behaves as a Shi'a sectarian power in the broader region to a greater extent than they do inside Iraq. At the same time, the Malikiyoun are distrustful of Iranian intentions toward Maliki and his government, and this has led them to try to preserve a relationship with the United States, in order to balance what would otherwise be dominant Iranian influence. The Malikiyoun are not motivated by a shared ideology. They are driven, instead, by the acquisition and holding of power, and above all are deeply committed to keeping Prime Minister Maliki in power. The common characteristic among all Malikiyoun is that their power derives entirely from their association with Maliki. If he were to fall from power, none of them would have anywhere to go, and this makes them more committed to him than any ideologue could be. Steadily, since 2008, the Malikiyoun have enabled the Prime Minister to neutralize, one by one, the checks and balances the Iraqi constitution was meant to enshrine to prevent just such a consolidation of power.1 Over the past three years, Iraq's independent commissions, armed forces, intelligence services, and judiciary have come under the formal or de facto control of the Prime Minister's office. The Malikiyoun have placed heavy emphasis on the coercive arms of the state and can now be found in the highest levels of the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, and intelligence apparatus. They can also be found atop the Iraqi Special Operations Forces and police commandos that now answer directly to the Prime Minister's office and have coalesced into a new set of coup-proofing forces akin to Saddam's Special Republican Guard. As they have gained control of these arms of the government, the Malikiyoun have gradually purged political opponents or independents from many key government positions. In addition, practically all major military, security, and intelligence appointments are now made directly by the Prime Minister's Office, without confirmation by the Iraqi parliament. This, then, is the Iraqi regime that happened to be in power during the historic events of 2011.
Political Geography:
Arab Countries

106. Elections in Libya

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and North Africa

107. Europe, the Mediterranean and the Arab Spring: Crisis as an Opportunity

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Mediterranean region is going through one of its most important transformations of modern times. The rise of new leaderships, the emergence of democracies and the persistence of violent conflicts represent a major challenge in one of the youngest and mos dynamic regions of the world. Against this backdrop, the Euro-Mediterranean political research community met in Barcelona to hold the EuroMeSCo Annual Conference 2012.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, International Security, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

108. Russia's Arab Spring Policy

Author:
Muharrem Erenler
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
One of the regions where Russia‟s interests are constant and historic is the Middle East, which has been being shaken by revolutions and insurgencies since January 2011. Being hesitant between supporting the desire of protestors to overthrow their long-ruling leaders and aligning with the stable authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, Russia has so far failed to adopt a consistent policy. Moreover, by following a low profile policy, Moscow seems indifferent to using the regimes changes as an opportunity to penetrate the region and revive its wading influence in the Middle East. Russia‟s inflexible foreign policy mentality, secondary importance of the Middle East in Russian foreign policy, perception of Arab Spring as a tool of outside powers, and the unrest it could arouse in motherland (as well as near abroad) could account for Moscow‟s reluctance to adopt a proactive role in reorganization of the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Arab Countries

109. What Can Arab Countries Learn From Post-communist Transition?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
More than a year has passed since the beginning of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the recent dramatic developments in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile nations which have already freed themselves from their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go and how to manage their political and economic changes. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (like Morocco or Jordan) which accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilization. Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest their Arab colleagues learn from the experience of the postcommunist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio-economic context of the Arab revolution seems to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.
Topic:
Development, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Arab Countries

110. Initial Impact of the Democratic Protests in the Arab World for the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Boryana Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
This report explores the correlation between the democratic protests in the Arab world and the Middle East negotiation process. In this sense, the content concentrates primarily on the development of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation track as the central line of the IsraeliArab relations. Impressive in its domestic political nature and decisive in its immediate ruling consequences, has the dissent in Northern Africa and beyond produced any effect on the already long-lasting Israeli-Palestinian antagonism and its regulation? Can we expect a change in the pat situation, which had been formed at the end of 2010 after the fall of the Tunisian and the Egyptian regimes and the revolts following in the neighbour countries? Where and how are the crossing points between the internal and external negotiation context in the respective regional environment to be defined? Taking into account the specific regional, international/global and local dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian contention, the answer to the questions above will be pursued by examining the new geopolitical map of the Middle East, the behaviour of the most influential third party for this particular conflict – the government of the United States of America, as well as the unfolding of the local Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics before and after the events in the region.
Topic:
Democracy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries