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621. Financing the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme (Zambia Plus) in the Shadow of the IMF

Author:
Caesar Cheelo
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In February 2018, the IMF reaffirmed its August 2017 formal withdrawal from negotiations with Zambia over a package of financial support. The strong position to hold negotiations came in the IMF’s Article IV Consultations report of 2017, which concluded that Zambia was at high risk of debt distress, and that whilst financial management and fiscal discipline were improving, the extent of the improvement was not sufficient to mitigate the growing public debt and fiscal deficit. Whilst the IMF deal may be off the table for the time being, the many of problems that drove Zambia to engage the IMF most assuredly remain unresolved. Two to three years after the economic minicrisis of 2015, Zambia continued to accrue sizable new debts, to utilize the proceeds poorly (to fund consumption spending) and to run persistent fiscal deficits – albeit a smaller and seemingly better managed deficit in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016. These issues remain problematic despite the partial economic rebound, with high copper prices, good rains (leading to good harvests and more reliable power supply), and a stable Kwacha providing a strong platform for improvement. Nonetheless, fiscal performance is lagging behind and Zambia may be missing a window to reestablish prudent public financial management.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Reform, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

622. Are Interest Payments on Debt Derailing Fiscal Consolidation?

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This policy brief provides a review of the performance of the first quarter of the 2018 National Budget. The paper provides context by looking at both the revenue and expenditure trends during the last three years when Government instituted some fiscal adjustment measures to bring the country back to a path of fiscal fitness. In analysing the 2018 Budget, the first quarter preliminary outturns are compared to the approved Budget for 2018, the projected performance for the first quarter as well as the first quarter of 2017. We assess fiscal fitness over the last three years and determine that fiscal consolidation had begun. While fiscal performance was generally high, budget credibility and sustainability were low. In the first quarter of 2018, revenues were higher than planned and most expenditures were within the projected amounts. Nonetheless, interest payments were much higher than expected and are likely to be a major source of spending overruns in 2018.
Topic:
Debt, Government, Budget, Public Debt, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

623. March 2018 Issue

Author:
Jacob Zenn, Bryan Price, Christopher Anzalone, Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Markus K. Binder, Jillian M. Quigley, and Herbert F. Tinsley
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This issue focuses on counterterrorism challenges in Africa. Next month marks the four-year anniversary of Boko Haram’s kidnapping of as many as 276 schoolgirls in Chibok, Nigeria. The hostage attack created global outrage and sparked the social media campaign #BringBackOurGirls. In our cover article, Jacob Zenn outlines the internal dynamics within Boko Haram that led the group to eventually enter into negotiations and release many of the girls. Zenn compares and contrasts the terrorist calculus in this earlier hostage crisis with the kidnapping of 111 schoolgirls in Dapchi, Nigeria, last month, which also resulted in many of the girls being released. Our interview is with Lieutenant Colonel Kent Solheim, commander of 3rd Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group, which is currently focused on security challenges in Africa. Christopher Anzalone documents how al-Shabaab has continued to take advantage of turmoil in Somalia to sustain its operations and maintain itself as the dominant jihadi group in the country. In the wake of rising jihadi violence in Burkina Faso, including an attack on the French embassy and the Burkinabe army headquarters earlier this month, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss profile the recently established al-Qa`ida-aligned Burkinabe terrorist group Ansaroul Islam and the threat it poses to the country. Markus Binder, Jillian Quigley, and Herbert Tinsley examine the Islamic State’s development and deployment of chemical weapons. They note that while the group has used such weapons on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq, it has featured little in its propaganda, calling into question how useful the group sees these weapons in advancing its strategic goals. While there has been much alarm about the threat of chemical terror attacks in the West, the authors note the only evidence so far that the Islamic State has transferred its chemical warfare expertise from the battlefield to its foreign terrorism activities is the summer 2017 Sydney hydrogen sulfide plot.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, and Burkina Faso

624. May 2018 Issue

Author:
Brian Glyn Williams, Robert Troy Souza, Bryan Price, Mikki Franklin, Daniel Milton, Brian Dodwell, Bennett Clifford, and Christian Jokinen
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On June 14, 2018, the FIFA World Cup kicks off in Moscow with host Russia facing Saudi Arabia in the opening match. Brian Williams and Robert Souza warn in our cover article that the massive global media spotlight on Russia during the month-long tournament may incentivize jihadi terrorists to carry out attacks on Russian soil to retaliate for the country’s ongoing military intervention against Sunni rebel and jihadi fighters in Syria. Recent years have seen a string of jihadi terrorist attacks and plots in Russia, including the St. Petersburg metro bombing last year, as well as Islamic State plots and attacks targeting soccer venues in Europe. In recent months, propaganda outlets supportive of the Islamic State have released a torrent of threat messages against the tournament. According to Williams and Souza, potential threats include ‘self-starters’ inspired by Islamic State propaganda, foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq, and jihadis operating in the northern Caucasus and Tatarstan. Our interview is with New York Times foreign correspondent Rukmini Callimachi, whose ongoing podcast series Caliphate documents the evolution and crimes of the Islamic State. Daniel Milton and Brian Dodwell examine a female guesthouse registry obtained from Islamic State territory. The records on about 1,100 women who transited through the facility shed new light on the women who traveled from overseas to join the group, as well as challenge the dominant narrative in many media reports on the subject. Bennett Clifford explores pro-Islamic State instructional material on the messaging and file-sharing platform Telegram, arguing that the dissemination of know-how on operational and cyber security may be equally as dangerous as instructional material related to carrying out attacks. Christian Jokinen draws on court records to outline the experiences of German foreign fighters who traveled to join al-Shabaab in Somalia earlier this decade. For most of them, the terrorist group turned out to be an unwelcoming host organization.
Topic:
Sports, Islamic State, Journalism, Jihad, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Germany, and Somalia

625. August 2018 Issue

Author:
Florian Flade, Paul Cruickshank, Matt Levitt, Geoff D. Porter, Jason Warner, and Charlotte Hulme
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Concern is rising over the threat of chemical and biological terror. Last month, the British newspaper The Sunday Times reported that staff at soccer stadiums in the United Kingdom were being advised on how to respond to attacks using poison gas and hazardous substances following concerns that Islamic State-inspired extremists may seek to carry out such attacks on crowded venues. There are signs the group is seeking to export expertise built up in Syria and Iraq. Last summer, an alleged terrorist cell based in Sydney that was in communication with a senior Islamic State controller allegedly plotted to build a poison gas dispersion device to potentially attack crowded places in Australia. As Florian Flade reports in our feature article, this past June, German authorities allegedly thwarted a ricin attack by a Tunisian extremist being advised on how to make the biological agent by an Islamic State-linked operative overseas. Before he was arrested, he was allegedly able to produce a significant quantity of ricin. A threshold had allegedly been crossed. Never before has a jihadi terrorist in the West successfully made the toxin. Our interview this month is with Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, who previously led U.K. and NATO efforts to counter CBRN threats. He warns the huge disruption caused by the “Novichok” attack in Salisbury earlier this year may inspire jihadi terrorists to launch bio-chem attacks. He argues the better informed and prepared the public and emergency responders are, the less likely such attacks will lead to large-scale panic. In late June, European security agencies thwarted a plot allegedly orchestrated by an Iranian diplomat to bomb an Iranian opposition conference near Paris attended by Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, and 4,000 others. Matthew Levitt outlines how Iranian agents have used diplomatic cover to plot terrorist attacks in Europe over the past several decades. Geoff Porter looks at the terrorist threats facing Mauritania. Jason Warner and Charlotte Hulme provide best estimates for the numerical strength of the nine Islamic State groupings active in Africa. This month, we mourn the loss of Ambassador Michael Sheehan, who worked tirelessly throughout his professional life to protect the United States from terrorism. As the former Distinguished Chair and current Senior Fellow of the Combating Terrorism Center, he inspired a new generation of military leaders and researchers and was a strong champion of this publication. He will be greatly missed.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, and Mauritania

626. Seasonal Migrants, Poverty Alleviation and Contract Sex in the Cocoa Producing Centers in the Littoral Quadrant of Cameroon: A Diagnostic Socio-Anthropological Study in the Post Colonial Era

Author:
Martin Sango Ndeh
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Cocoa production forms a very important part of Cameroon’s agroindustrial enterprise particularly along the coastal forest zones along the Littoral Quadrant. There are several communities in the South West region of Cameroon, which economies rely heavily on the cocoa industry. These communities that include areas like Munyenge, Bafia, Bai Bikum, Ekata and many others operate seasonal economies that depend on the fluctuating harvest of the cocoa farmers. The peak periods of harvest in these cocoa producing communities are usually periods of boom that have a serious ripple effect on these communities’ economy. The cocoa industry in these areas is well organized and it has attracted migrant labor from far and near. There are migrants from far off places in the North West and Western regions of Cameroon who come and settle in cocoa producing areas in the South West Region2 . In these areas, there are different categories of cocoa plantation operators: those who own cocoa farms as sole proprietors, while others work as paid labor and others as Two-party operators.3 In these producing areas, there are other categories of workers like the cocoa buyers who act as intermediaries between the farmers and the exporting companies like TELCA. Cocoa buyers are agents who buy cocoa directly from the farmers and intend to sell to exporting companies. Some of the cocoa buyers are independent operators while others act as agents to cocoa exporting companies. These companies alongside the Cameroonian’s government have contributed enormously to develop the cocoa sector, which is an important export exchange earner. The government of Cameroon through regional bodies like South West Development Authority (SOWEDA) and the Rumpi Participatory Development Project4 have taken interest in enhancing the cocoa industry because of the role that it plays in the development of these particular areas and the nation as a whole. The growth and expansion of the cocoa sector in these areas has attracted a huge influx of migrants and it is against this backdrop that this paper establishes a link between cocoa production, seasonal migration and some of the social ills associated with these seasonal movements.
Topic:
Agriculture, Migration, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

627. ‘Land Bandits’ or ‘Land Grabbers’: Fulani Herdsmen and Local Farmers Incessant Bloody Clashes in Nigeria

Author:
Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Incessant bloody clashes between the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in Africa have resulted in deaths and displacement. Different parts of Africa including Nigeria have experienced clashes between the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers throughout the colonial periods in Africa and even beyond (Abubakar 2012). The dire need for Fulani herdsmen to increase the productivity of their livestock farming in the midst of unfavourable climatic conditions have necessitated the search for adequate pasture for cattle grazing. In Africa, the Fulanis are about twenty million in number; they are one of the most widely dispersed and culturally diverse people scattered across Nigeria, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Cameroon, Chad and Sudan. The Fulanis, also known as the “Fula people or Fulbe” are the largest pastoral nomadic group in the world with root in West Africa, Northern part of Central Africa and Egypt (Adisa and Adekunke 2010). The common business of Fulanis is livestock production, they move from one region to another for grazing purposes. Livestock account for one third of Nigeria’s agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and contributes 16% of agricultural GDP; it is an important component of general agriculture and a key contributor to economic growth and development of any nation (Ojiako and Olayode 2008, 114). [...] The failure of the government policy on grazing reserve has left Fulani herdsmen to their fates, in determining where and how to raise their livestock. Amidst this situation, some medium and large corporate livestock farms have emerged, while many other Fulani herdsmen maintain their nomadic lifestyles. The latter live a sort of jungle life, characterized by selfhelp, in the search of grazing fields across the states, trying to protect their lives and properties from wild animals and cattle rustlers. These, among other things, have led to Fulani herdsmen being armed with dangerous military weapons like AK 47 and other dangerous ammunitions, which in turn have led to series of incessant bloody killings involving the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in different rural communities across the country
Topic:
Agriculture, Conflict, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

628. The Role of Multinational Oil Corporations (Mnocs) in Nigeria: More Exploitation Equals Less Development of Oil-Rich Niger Delta Region

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Nigeria is not exempted from the integration of developing economies into the global capitalist system. The origin of Nigeria’s integration can be traced to the influx of MNCs in the manufacturing and banking sectors during the colonial era. But by 1956, the discovery of crude oil in Oloibiri by Shell D’Archy, expanded the integration into the extractive sector and Multinational Oil Corporations (MNOCs) emerged as the main extractive bodies (Oluwaniyi 2010). From 1956, crude oil in the Niger Delta region has been central to Nigeria’s political economy, accounting for over 90% of its foreign revenue, defining its place in ‘ international relations’ (Raji; Yusuf and Samuel 2013, 24; Soremekun 2011, 99). Though some scholars have associated multinational oil corporations with the development of host states, Niger Delta region continues to languish in deep poverty. The oil-rich communities fail to enjoy benefits commensurate to the profits gained by the levels of exploration of crude oil and exploitation in the region. This paradox further underlines the violent crisis perpetrated by frustrated youth in the region (Obi and Rustad 2011). Likewise, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Sudan are also among the top five sub-Saharan African oil exporters but, in terms of development, their performance have been dismal (UNCTAD 2007). The effects of MNOCs’ presence have triggered debates on the extent to which they have contributed to the development or under-development in the region. It is against this background that it has become extremely pertinent to evaluate, in concrete terms, the effects of MNOCs’ activities in the Niger Delta region. The objectives of this paper include, to analyse the extent to which multinational oil corporations have delivered on their larger expectations in the Niger Delta region, the role of the state in mediating or perpetuating crises between the MNOCs and the oil-rich communities, and impacts on relations in the region.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Oil, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

629. Chinese Investment and Its Implications for Nigeria’s Economic Security

Author:
Shiitu Adewole Raji and Adenike Ogunrinu
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The international system consists of different nations which pursue their national interests within the global arena having put into consideration the benefits they stand to gain from such relationships (Ampiah and Sanusha 2015, 8). The explosive growth of China’s economic interests in Africa, which is part of the sustained global interactions discussed above, is an important trend in the continent’s foreign relations arena. China’s rapidly expanding ties with Africa has superseded the United States’ since 2010 as Africa’s top trading partner because of its massive investments in the continent , which is largely aided by China Investible Export loan assistance of $150 billion to its multinational corporations (Brautigam 2009, 22). Between 2001 and 2011, Chinese exports to Africa were raised from $4.4 billion to $56.3 billion. Though China is still regarded as a third world country, the country is the second biggest economy in the world. [..] Although there is a vast body of literature on the bilateral relations between Nigeria and China, little is known about the implications of China’s increasing FDI for the economic security of Nigeria, a gap this paper intends to fill. The study is anchored on descriptive research methodology, consisting of qualitative data, which relied primarily on the existing literature.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Nigeria

630. Gender Equality or Inequality in Africa? African Feminist Thinking

Author:
Ineildes Calheiro and Eduardo David Oliveira
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
The present essay has cognitive analysis as theoretical and methodological perspective and its focus is on thoughts and theories of African authors, particularly in Nigeria, of gender conceptions in Africa. In the first part, Ifi Amadiume and Oyeronké Oyěwúmí epistemologies point to an egalitarian Africa regarding gender relations before colonization. In the second part, Chimamanda Adichie and Paul Zeleza (from Zimbabwe) talk about an unequal Africa regarding gender relations, particularly binary. They put into evidence the decentralization of the hegemonic epistemology from Europe and North America as important to comprehend the debate about gender in Africa. The study comes from the author intention to explore African epistemologies in the context of gender and feminism, and from the incursion (in 2017) in the course of “Gender and África”, and this research was developed after the incursion of the author in the doctorate study (in 2016), in fields of “Contemporary Philosophy and African Philosophy”, which encouraged the author to study different kinds of epistemologies. In addition, the essay aims to diffuse those knowledges.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Inequality, Feminism, and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa