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611. Two Years After The Juba Clashes: Has Unmiss's Protection of Displaced people Improved?

Author:
Thijs Van Laer
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
In July 2016, serious fighting erupted in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, when a peace agreement signed less than a year before broke down. Many citizens were killed, often in deliberate, ethnically motivated attacks, while others sought safety in the vicinity of the premises of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Many more had already found relative safety there after earlier violence and atrocities in 2013. As of June 28, 2018, more than 210,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) are living under UNMISS protection. Despite its responsibility to protect those IDPs, in July 2016 peacekeepers abandoned their positions at the IDP site, and more than 20 civilians were killed. In addition, two Chinese peacekeepers died after a grenade exploded near their armored personnel carrier. Despite repeated alerts, UNMISS did not intervene when government security forces forced their way into a nearby hotel and killed one and sexually abused other UN and humanitarian personnel residing there. Much has been written about the woefully inadequate response by the UN peace operation to these attacks, blamed by a UN inquiry on the lack of leadership, inadequate coordination, and poor troop performance. The mission’s military commander was sacked after the inquiry.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Displacement, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

612. Tunisia’s magic reform bullet? Decentralisation is being developed to upend the legacy of a highly centralised state

Author:
Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The municipal elections in May were the first major step towards an ambitious decentralisation project in Tunisia. Yet although the administrative structure is continuing to evolve alongside a democratising system, the aim of improving the state-society relationship has been jeopardised by record-level abstentions.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

613. Improving Peacekeeping Performance – Dilemmas and Goals

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The recent adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2436 on UN peacekeeping is the latest development in an ongoing debate on how to improve peacekeeping performance. Africa’s status as both the largest provider of troops and the continent hosting most current peace operations, positions it at the heart of this discussion. This policy brief critically examines two of the options identified to improve peacekeeping: more troop contributions from states with advanced military capability and better training for peacekeepers. Specifically, it highlights challenges with training troops from (semi-)authoritarian and post-conflict states and points to the importance of improving civil-military relations in order to enhance peacekeeping performance.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa

614. Why It Matters What We Do: Arab Citizens' Perceptions of the European Union after the 2011 Uprisings

Author:
Kressen Thyen
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the Middle East and North Africa, EU foreign policy has tended to prioritise regime stability over democratisation. Existing research has argued that this could create anti‐European sentiment in the respective populations. However, empirical evidence on the relationship between the EU’s stance towards regime change and citizen attitudes remains rare. Focusing on Morocco and Egypt, this study uses a mixed‐methods approach, combining qualitative case studies with original survey data to examine whether the EU’s divergent responses to the 2011 uprisings in these two countries are mirrored in regime opponents’ support for EU cooperation.
Topic:
Social Movement, European Union, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Egypt, and Morocco

615. Responses to Climate-related Security Risks: Regional Organizations in Asia and Africa

Author:
Florian Krampe, Roberta Scassa, and Giovanni Mitrotta
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The transnational character of climate-related security risks often goes beyond the capacity of national governments to respond adequately. As such, it creates challenges for and increases the relevance of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). It is, therefore, not only important to understand the climate-related security risks that regions are experiencing but also to analyse how regional IGOs are developing their capacities to deal with these risks. This SIPRI Insights presents a concise analysis of four regional IGOs—two in Asia and two in Africa. The main findings show that, in various ways, climate-related security risks have found their way into the IGOs’ policy frameworks and institutional discourse. Furthermore, it was found that both the regional security context and the regions’ vulnerability to climate change affect the framing of climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Asia, West Africa, and Southeast Asia

616. Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Sparse Evidence from South Asia and South East Asia

Author:
Florian Krampe and Pernilla Nordqvist
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The impacts of climate change are increasingly viewed as global security risks, which will have far-reaching implications for both human and renewable natural systems. Most climate–conflict research has focused on East Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This SIPRI Insights explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia. Although these regions have been greatly affected by both climate change and conflict, there have only been a small number of rigorous academic studies that focus on the climate–conflict relationship. While this constrains the ability to draw general conclusions, there is context-specific evidence that climate change can have an effect on the causes and dynamics of violent conflict in the region when: (a) it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups; (c) elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it displaces people and increases levels of migration. In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both regions is clear.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Conflict, and Risk
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

617. Investment Challenges in Zambia’s Electricity Supply Industry: A Cursory Assessment

Author:
Mwanda Phiri and Francis Ziba
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
During the tide of economic liberalisation in the 1990s, Zambia’s electricity market was liberalised with the aim of stimulating private sector participation. More than 20 years after market liberalisation, the power crisis in 2015 revealed that the industry had failed to attract the envisaged private sector investment required to expand and diversify energy generation sources and meet the increasing demand for electricity over the years. It became apparent that the various reforms taken to liberalise the industry, increase private sector participation and promote competition had fallen short of meeting these objectives. Zambia’s electricity supply industry still remained a semblance of a monopoly dominated by one large vertically integrated state-owned corporation responsible for the generation, transmission, distribution and supply of electricity. Given the important role of electricity in driving economic growth, this paper illuminates the barriers to entry in the ESI and the factors limiting competition. Drawing mainly on secondary sources, the study finds that at the very start, limited access to finance for energy projects potentially prevents the commencement of energy projects. Exacerbating the entry barriers are the below-cost electricity tariffs, the monopoly power held by ZESCO and its vertical integration and an inadequate regulatory framework to promote competition and prevent undue political interference. These findings justify the partial unbundling of ZESCO and the provision of legal reforms that support policy consistency, multi-year tariff adjustments and open and nondiscriminatory access to the transmission and distribution grids.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Regulation, Neoliberalism, Tariffs, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

618. Reversing Zambia’s high risk of debt distress

Author:
Florence Banda-Muleya and Shebo Nalishebo
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A load of unsustainable debt hangs heavy over Zambia. Zambia is part of a list of 25 low income countries considered at high risk of debt distress in 2018. Government’s efforts to reduce the country’s infrastructure gap as well as bring down poverty and inequality have resulted into large spending overruns, a growing subsidy bill and a substantial public sector wage bill over the last five years. Alas, domestic revenues remained low and stagnant. So Government resorted to massive external borrowing to finance arguably unsustainable expenditure. This approach to spending pushed borrowings to about 59% of GDP as at end of 2017, which is in the territory of unsustainable debt levels. In October 2017, the IMF issued a red flag that Zambia was at high risk of debt distress, implying that the country was likely to breach the thresholds for debt and debt service indicators and, should it continue on the same trajectory, it would likely default on its debt service obligations.
Topic:
Debt, Poverty, Economy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

619. “Blanket” Fuel and Electricity Subsidies Did Not Offer Much Benefit to Zambia’s Poor

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Rabecca Haatongo-Masenke
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
For a long time the Zambian Government ran a number of consumption and production subsidy programmes. These programmes1 came under considerable strain in 2015 when Zambia experienced a significant economic downturn. In that year, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate fell to 2.9%, from an impressive 7.7% over the ten years before (2005-2014). By the time the 2015 downturn had fully set in, the country was running a budget deficit of nearly 10% of GDP and had raked up a public debt stock of over 50% of GDP (IMF, 2016). With the combined cost of debt service interest payments and arrear payments rising from 17% of the National Budget in 2016 to 23% in 2017 (Cheelo, 2017), the Government was readily hemorrhaging money in the aftermath of the minicrisis. Zambia could no longer afford the multiplicity of subsidies it had been maintaining and seriously contemplated abolishing some of them. The policy intentions of the Government were met with strong anti-abolition sentiments with some stakeholders asserting that the removal of subsidies on fuel and electricity would cause pump-price and electricity tariff escalations. The worry was that these price hikes would hurt Zambia’s poor and vulnerable groups most of all. Generally, these sentiments were not backed by analysis and empirical evidence; they were subjective and had the potential to misinform public policy. This paper offers an alternative perspective to the above motion on anti-abolition of subsidies. We argue that during their existence, the fuel and electricity subsidies had benefitted the poor far less than they had done any other social groups in Zambia. Likewise, the abolition of the subsidies affected the poor less than it did other social groups.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

620. Rental Taxation: Curbing Non-Compliance and Improving Administration

Author:
Florence B. Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Malindi Msoni, Mukuka Mulenga, Evaristo Mwale, and Yenda Shamabobo
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Since 2013, the Zambian economy has grappled with a high fiscal deficit. Many stakeholders continue to implore the Government to take measures to ensure that the tax base is broadened, voluntary compliance improved and domestic resource mobilisation enhanced to reduce the deficit. Consequently, there has been a call on the tax administration authority to rethink its tax collection strategies and bring more individuals and firms into the tax net. Recently, the Government reiterated its commitment to enhance resource mobilisation in the 2019 Budget Speech. Improved administration of taxation in the housing sector, particularly rental properties, offers a promise as one of the options to increase tax revenues especially if more tax payers are captured under this tax net. However, the administration of individual rental income tax faces many challenges.
Topic:
Economy, Tax Systems, and Rent
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia