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601. Leadership Targeting as a Counterterrorism Strategy: The Nigerian Experience

Author:
Gbemisola Animasawun
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the implications of leadership decapitation as a counterterrorism tactic using as case studies, the killings of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by the US and Boko Haram leader Mohammed Yusuf by Nigeria. It is based on Alex S. Wilner’s method of comparing the number of attacks a group successfully carried out before and after the removal of its leader as a means of ascertaining its weakness, demise, or renewed ferocity due to the death of its leader.12 This study gives an account of the unprecedented increase in the number of Boko Haram attacks and the high level of fear and attention—both local and international—due to the high-level targets chosen by the group after the killing of Mohammed Yusuf. This is complemented by primary data gathered through semi-structured interviews with selected security operatives who had contact with Yusuf and his successor Abubakar Shekau. For al-Qaeda, data was collected from secondary sources only. This study begins by summarizing the origin and agenda of violent Islamism, followed by arguments for and against leadership decapitation. Next, it considers accounts of the evolution of al-Qaeda and Boko Haram, their experience of leadership decapitation, and the ferocity of both groups in the aftermath of leadership decapitation. Finally, it examines the overall implications of leadership decapitation for counterterrorism efforts in light of the post-decapitation recovery and increase in reach of both al-Qaeda and Boko Haram. The two cases of leadership decapitation examined in this article are telling cases that invite closer attention to the implications of counterterrorism strategies.13
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Refugee Crisis, Leadership, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, and Nigeria

602. Securing Our Lives: Women at the Forefront of the Peace and Security Discourse in Kenya

Author:
Vicky Karimi
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The research presented in the 2015 United Nations Global Study on the Implementation of Security Council Resolution 1325 comprehensively demonstrates the key role played at all levels by women in the operational effectiveness, success, and sustainability of peace processes and peacebuilding efforts. It recommends that mediators, facilitators, and leaders in peace operations be proactive in including women in all aspects of peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. More importantly, the study found a need for the normative framework to be localized and for greater attention to be given to mapping what local communities and women actually need.1 Since 2000, the United Nations has passed several resolutions that constitute the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda. These are particularly significant because they were adopted by the UN Security Council. UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 prioritizes the inclusion and participation of women in all stages of decision-making in peace processes.2 Subsequent resolutions UNSCR 1820 (2008), UNSCR 1888 (2009), UNSCR 1889 (2009), UNSCR 1960 (2010), UNSCR 2106 (2013), UNSCR 2122 (2013), and UNSCR 2242 (2015) focus on various aspects of the WPS agenda, such as sexual and gender-based violence, peacekeeping, rule of law, impunity, and the role of women in countering violent extremism.3 Together, these resolutions provide a robust normative framework for the substantive participation of women in the discourse on peace and security.
Topic:
Security, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

603. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 21 March, 2018, 44 African heads of state and government dignitaries signed a historic African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) at the 10th Ordinary Session of African Union (AU) Heads of State Summit held in Kigali, Rwanda. The AfCFTA is the largest free trade area since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995. The Session was under the theme: “Creating One African Market,” and falls under AU’s Agenda 2063 Initiative. The AfCFTA is also one of the biggest free-trade areas with regards to the number of countries, thus, encompassing 1.2 billion people with over $4 trillion in combined consumer and business spending should the remaining 11 AU member countries join the Agreement (Signe, 2018). The AfCFTA would additionally become effective 30 days subsequent to ratification by the legislative houses of at least 22 African countries; countries that signed the Agreement have 120 days for its ratification. This paper seeks to outline the significance of the Agreement, its aims, challenges and the continuous work needed to sustain it going forward with potential impact it may have on third country agreements with AU member countries.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

604. The Single African Passport - Curb the Enthusiasm, Challenges Abound

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
To progressively bring independent African states together in order to foster unity, continental integration2 is a long cherished ideal of the forbearers of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), now African Union (AU). The pursuit of this ideal, however, looks farfetched. It’s been over half a century and yet the continent has a very restrictive regime in terms of movement of persons within, so is continental trade. The AU, however, has announced to introduce a single African passport in order to facilitate easy movement of persons and trade activities across the continent. The first part of this paper examines some of the merits implementing the single African passport will bring; the second part deals with some of the challenges that may come with it as well as the highlight of a central critique.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Borders, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

605. Spotlight on Africa | The South Sudan Conflict – 2018 Khartoum Peace Agreement

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 27 June 2018, South Sudan’s main belligerents inked a peace deal that aims to set the country on a path to normalcy from it over half decade of conflict. The deal was reached at the backdrop of a two-day talks between President Salva Kiir and ‘rebel leader’, Riek Machar, former Vice President of South Sudan. The Khartoum talks were mediated by President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda on behalf of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)2 . The announcement of the deal came both as a surprise and relief – surprise because only a week prior to this deal, the warring parties had stalemated a peace pact intended to resurrect an earlier peace deal signed in 2015. In fact the leading figures, both Kiir and Machar had summarily not only rejected that deal but also the notion of even working together, the deal came as a relief in certain quarters cognizance of the 30 June deadline set by the UN Security Council after which sanctions on South Sudan would be renewed.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

606. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan push for cooperation

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) held its 30th Summit from 22 – 29 January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The central theme of the Summit was a clarion call to strengthen African unity and fight against corruption and the eradication of poverty on the continent. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda was elected the new AU chairperson at the Summit, however, it is a significant development that transpired on the sidelines of the Summit among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan that this policy update seeks to address pursuant to an earlier published policy brief, The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix.2 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn all signaled their resolve to avoid misunderstandings cognizance of Ethiopia’s construction of its dam, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a sideline meeting at the Summit. A statement released by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that, “we (the three country heads) have agreed to work as one on matters among the three countries, particularly on the construction of the GERD” (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018).
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, Infrastructure, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

607. Spotlight on Africa | Turkey–Africa Relations

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On the 11th and 12th of February 2018, the “2nd Turkey–Africa Ministerial Review Conference” transpired in Istanbul. The Conference was held under the tutelage of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. In participation was the Deputy Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, H. E. Thomas Qwesi Quartey together with several foreign affairs ministers of African countries as well as AU representatives. Considering that a Turkey–Africa Summit is scheduled to be held in 2019 in Turkey, this TurkeyAfrica Ministerial Review Conference was held to evaluate the progress of Turkey’s Africa partnership so far in conjunction with steps that could be taken to even solidify this special relationship.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Education, Health, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Conference
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

608. Spotlight on Africa | What Next for Libya?

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
2017 could be described by Libyans and many in the international community as a year of political stagnation with no vital accomplishment in terms of the political impasse and deadlock in postGaddafi Libya (El-Gamaty, 2018), a scenario that has seen the establishment of rival governments and the proliferation of militias among certain factions embroiled in the Libyan conflict. A ray of hope has however appeared in the form of renewed efforts to get the country back to full functionality. It is in this vain that on 29 May, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leaders of rival Libyan factions together with diplomats from over 20 countries (including UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, French Foreign Affairs Minister Le Drian, Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso) in Paris in attempt to broker a peace deal and a pathway to elections in Libya.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

609. The End of A Peacekeeping Era

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
An era of UN peacekeeping ended on Good Friday, as the organization’s fifteen-year old mission in Liberia (UNMIL) closed shop. This follows the termination of the UN missions in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) last summer and that in Haiti (MINUSTAH) in October. All dating back to 2003 or 2004, these were the final examples of a relatively successful series of peace operations launched by the Security Council between 1999 and 2005 that were characterized by (i) fairly large military and police components relative to the territories and populations they served; and (ii) a long-term commitment to enabling peaceful politics in post-war states, including facilitating multiple elections.
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa, Caribbean, Haiti, Liberia, North America, and Côte d'Ivoire

610. The Loss of Arms And Ammunition In Peace Operations: Mapping And Addressing The Challenge

Author:
Jefferson Brehm
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
In January 2016, al-Shabaab militants attacked an African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forward operating base in El Adde, Somalia. They held the base for several days before the Kenya Defence Forces managed to reclaim it. Media reporting has understandably focused on the loss of life among the Kenyan peacekeepers—widely reported to be upwards of 100 men and women. The loss of materiel has received considerably less attention, but is of great importance. Al-Shabaab potentially put AMISOM’s personnel and local communities in even greater peril by seizing their weapons, ammunition, vehicles, and communications equipment. The El Adde attack resulted in one of the largest recorded single incidents of diversion of materiel from peacekeepers, but was far from an isolated incident. As the Small Arms Survey has documented, the loss of equipment during peace operations is routine and widespread. In fact, thousands of small arms and light weapons, and millions of rounds of ammunition have entered the black market from more than a dozen missions undertaken by the United Nations (UN) and several regional organizations. Logistical challenges to security management are not specific to UN missions but pose challenges for all organizations that engage in peace operations because all peacekeepers who deploy with military hardware face the risk of losses. Small Arms Survey research suggests a number of ways that these losses can be resisted or better managed, including through improved record-keeping, tailoring procedures to the specific operational environment, and respecting the operational limitations of inspection regimes.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Weapons, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan