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401. Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa

Author:
Michael Tiboris
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa MAY 21, 2019 By: Michael Tiboris, Nonresident Fellow, Global Water Key facts and figures China is now the largest trading partner for the African continent, and China’s Export-Import Bank aims to invest more than $1 trillion in the continent by 2025. In addition, China has now surpassed the United States government in total agriculture R&D funding. China has increased its presence in African development—a trend that will persist because its model is extremely attractive to both China and many African nations. China’s growing contributions to African development should not automatically be feared, but their increased presence should create a recalibration in US approaches to development. Current US National Security Advisor and former Ambassador John Bolton in his announcement of the administration’s Prosper Africa initiative cast China’s presence in Africa as a strategic challenge for the United States. The market opportunities on the African continent are enormous. Consumer expenditure is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2025 and $2.5 trillion by 2030. The World Bank estimates that the African food market alone could be worth $1 trillion by 2030, more than tripling the current $300 million market. China’s ability to directly finance and construct infrastructure projects with fewer conditions is unique and has raised worries in some quarters about the expropriation of natural resources, environmental hazards, labor displacement, unstable debt burdens, and land grabs. In addition, China’s investment strategy leaves notable gaps that the United States, leaning on its expertise, can fill. The most direct and sustainable mechanism for moving people out of poverty is investment in agriculture—in particular, smallholder agriculture. US leadership on global water, food, and nutrition security is essential to catalyze the innovations and development necessary to achieve US foreign policy and development goals on the continent. To maintain its global leadership in this strategically important continent, the United States should consider prioritizing technical assistance for water sustainability and thereby support sanitation and agricultural growth. The United States must also continue to find ways to deepen its relationships with African partners to demonstrate US commitment to building resilience and self-reliance in these communities for the long term. Simultaneously, the United States and its allies should work through international institutions to encourage China to adopt policies that achieve shared global objectives in economic development, security, human welfare, and sustainability.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Banks, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

402. Diplomacy, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Deal and its Implications

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 5 June 2018, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition; Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under its new leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that it shall accept the terms of a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea. The announcement came as a shock both to the international community and analysts who follow politics in the Horn of Africa. Beneath the declaration were years of silent diplomatic undertakings which have been given relatively lesser attention as the charismatic nature of Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has taken centre stage. This Brief shall emphasize the role of diplomacy in the build-up to the announcement as well as the unique nature of Prime Minister Ahmed; in doing so, it is intrinsic to capture the historical context of the border conflict, an alternative explanation to diplomacy as well as the rewards of the peace deal and its challenges (implications). The Brief concludes by making a case for diplomacy as it still remains a viable factor in terms of conflict resolution in Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

403. Boko Haram and the African Union's Attitude Towards Terrorism

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
This paper attempts to capture the African Union’s attitude towards terrorism in a relatively lesser extent to the activities of Boko Haram. In so doing, a brief background is coined together with this introductory section. This is followed by sub-sections which shall explore the following, Boko Haram’s territorial capture, Boko Haram’s status as a terrorist group and what encompasses terrorism. Subsequently, AU’s evolving attitude towards terrorism will be traced in addition to how it has set its agenda against terrorism. The AU’s counter-terrorism activities in the context of Boko Haram will be assessed with its role in the prevention and combat of terrorism in Africa analyzed. The AU’s challenges as far as terrorism is concerned will also be highlighted with suggestions on possible alternatives as well as concluding thoughts.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Boko Haram, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

404. Advancing the Rule of Law Through Executive Measures: The Case of MINUSCA

Author:
Edith Vanspranghe
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) has been mandated to implement “urgent temporary measures” in the form of arrests and detentions of individuals. This rather innovative mandate brings about several legal and conceptual consequences that the article addresses, focusing on the compatibility of these measures with UN peacekeeping norms and principles and with past UN practice. In addition, the measures are said to contribute to law and order, public safety, the fight against impunity, and to the rule of law. This sheds light on the UN’s interesting conception of the rule of law in the Central African Republic and in conflict and post-conflict settings in general.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Conflict, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

405. Drug Trafficking between Latin America and Africa: A contemporary Case between Security and Global Governance / Narcotráfico entre América Latina y África: un caso contemporáneo entre seguridad y gobernanza global

Author:
Mohamed Badine El Yattioui and Claudia Barona Castañeda
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In this paper, we will analyze two regions and the relationship between them, concerning drug trafficking (excepting Morocco, a hashish producer), posing a great variability challenges for State Security and their formal cooperation and even further, a real concern of global governance matter. How to create original and international instruments adapted to fight this illegal market, which has an impact on Europe?
Topic:
Security, International Affairs, Narcotics Trafficking, Drugs, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

406. What to Make of the Government’s Decision not to Extend its Mission in Mali

Author:
Basel Ammane
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

407. Climate Security in the Sahel and the Mediterranean: Local and Regional Responses

Author:
A. Bassou, A. Chielewska, and X. Ruiz-Campillo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean connects Europe to Africa. The Mediterranean basin is thus an area of ​​interaction between the two continents. However, there is a perception that limits the Mediterranean basin to its strictest geographical sense, that is to say the countries of southern Europe and those of North Africa, which border the Mediterranean. This traditional conception ignores the geopolitical context, which broadens the vision of the Mediterranean basin by including all the spaces that impact it. Some human phenomena, such as migration, show that Mediterranean relations do not only concern the states bordering this sea, but a much larger area including the whole European Union, on the one hand, and North African, Sahelian and Sub-Saharan countries, on the other hand. The present study takes into account the broader conception of the Mediterranean. In this sense, it not only deals with the effects of climate change on the countries bordering the Mediterranean, but extends its analysis to the whole European Union (EU), to the Maghreb and especially to the Sahel. Due to its geography, climate, demography, proliferation of conflicts or its precarious level of industrialization, the Sahel region is the most threatened in the world by climate change. Any deterioration of the situation in the Sahel countries undoubtedly has repercussions on Europe and its relations with Africa. The four authors of the study examine the impact of climate change on the stability of the Sahel and the effects that the instability of this region could have on the Mediterranean space. The authors question the potential links between climate change and security. They outline the positions and frameworks of European actions as well as the different initiatives taken by EU institutions. Finally, they put forward some recommendations on how to effectively address this phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Political stability, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Mediterranean

408. Cooperation with Religious Institutions as a European Policy Tool

Author:
Yasemin El-Menouar, Sergio Altuna, Patrycja Sasnai, and Georges Fahmi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
For at least three decades now religion has been re-entering the public sphere and politics in Europe and globally. Its re-emergence, however, bears little resemblance to the past when the religion-state coupling was unequivocal. Today, in Europe, the values of freedom of religion and belief, free expression and non-discrimination take precedence over any single religion’s domination – at least that is the prevalent aspiration. In the European neighbourhood, major social and political phenomena have acquired an increasingly religious angle: radicalisation – in the words of Olivier Roy – is becoming Islamised, intra and interstate conflicts have a sectarian character, and governments either want to increase their control over religion or the breakdown of local governance is making religious actors more legitimate representatives than the central government. Within EU member states, religion is resurfacing alongside two simultaneous trends: on the one hand, individualised, atomised urban life that requires more spirituality and a reference point to the realities of modernity and diversity; and, on the other, social polarisation around perceptions of secularisation and religions, particularly Islam. This Joint Policy Study takes an institutionalist view of state-religion relations, although religious institutions are defined in a broad sense and encompass both official and unofficial religion. This leaves the field outside of the institutionalised religion-state relations either relatively small or down to individual expressions of religiosity. Institutionalism, so understood, is a view that policy is carried out through and with institutions. This can vary in different aspects: dependence (state-dependent, statecontrolled, independent of states), size, homogeneity, thematic focus, accountability, credibility, and so on. The chapters in the study aim to provide both more generalised overviews and case studies to cover all levels of state-religion relations in Europe and MENA: relations between state and religious institutions in Europe (chapter 1); relations between state and religious institutions in the Maghreb (Tunisia and Morocco in chapter 3); relations between institutions of different religions (the Vatican and al-Azhar in chapter 4); and the role of Muslim religious institutions in advancing a state policy in an EU member state (Germany in chapter 2).
Topic:
Religion, Institutionalism, Secularism, and Theocracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Germany, Morocco, Tunisia, and Vatican city

409. Its own worst enemy? The Ugandan government is taking desperate measures to control rising dissent

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda has the world’s second youngest population. The Museveni regime is increasingly struggling to build legitimacy among this group, which wants public services and employment rather than distant stories about how the regime brought an end to war when it came to power in 1986. This brief aims to explain the ways in which the Museveni regime has dealt with these changing circumstances. Concretely, it argues that the regime’s attempts to improve public services largely fail because of existing patronage dynamics. This has made the regime even more dependent on the use of patronage and violence.
Topic:
Public Opinion, State Violence, Legitimacy, Dissent, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

410. Untangling Justice, Peace and Amnesties in the Central African Republic

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The question of amnesties has come to the forefront once again as the Central African Republic (CAR) started a new round of African Union-mediated peace negotiations on 24 January 2019. While rebel groups demanded a general amnesty as a non-negotiable condition, the government maintained strong opposition to any new amnesty. The Khartoum peace agreement signed on 6 February 2019 did not uphold rebel groups’ demand for a general amnesty, but it leaves many grey areas concerning the question of amnesty and justice. Consequently, it is likely that the question of amnesties or pardons will resurface in the course of the agreement’s implementation. Drawing on broader discussions about the amnesty dilemma and examining the provisions of the 2019 Khartoum peace agreement, this policy brief sets out the key parameters which frame the amnesty question in the CAR.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic