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2351. To Save Darfur

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international strategy for dealing with the Darfur crisis primarily through the small (7,000 troops) African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) is at a dead end. AMIS credibility is at an all-time low, with the ceasefire it could never monitor properly in tatters. In the face of this, the international community is backing away from meaningful action. The African Union (AU) yielded to Khartoum's pressure on 10 March 2006 and did not ask the UN to put into Darfur the stronger international force that is needed. If the tragedy of the past three years is not to be compounded, the AU and its partners must address the growing regional crisis by getting more troops with greater mobility and firepower on the ground at once and rapidly transforming AMIS into a larger, stronger UN peacekeeping mission with a robust mandate focused on civilian protection.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

2352. Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk of an explosion that could cost thousands of lives in the country and shatter the stability of Southern Africa is growing in Zimbabwe. Political reform is blocked, and virtually every economic indicator continues to trend downward. Inflation, poverty and malnutrition are growing more acute. Party and civil society opponents of President Mugabe's government are yet to tap effectively into the living-standards-based dissatisfaction but it could finally become the spark that sets Zimbabwe toward change. The course is risky but Zimbabwe's splintered opposition needs to come together to formulate a campaign of non-violent resistance that channels this anger and frustration into pressure on Mugabe to keep his word to retire by 2008 and on his ruling ZANU-PF party to negotiate seriously on a transition. The international community, long frustrated at its inability to influence the crisis, should assist, especially by tightening targeted sanctions (U.S./EU) and offering mediation services (South Africa).
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

2353. Can the Somalia Crisis Be Contained?

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia has been drifting toward a new war since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was formed in late 2004 but the trend has recently accelerated dramatically. The stand-off between the TFG and its Ethiopian ally on the one hand, and the Islamic Courts, which now control Mogadishu, on the other, threatens to escalate into a wider conflict that would consume much of the south, destabilise peaceful territories like Somaliland and Puntland and possibly involve terrorist attacks in neighbouring countries unless urgent efforts are made by both sides and the international community to put together a government of national unity.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

2354. The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria's Delta Unrest

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A potent cocktail of poverty, crime and corruption is fuelling a militant threat to Nigeria's reliability as a major oil producer. Since January 2006, fighters from a new group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), have fought with government forces, sabotaged oil installations, taken foreign oil workers hostage and carried out two lethal car bombings. MEND demands the government withdraw troops, release imprisoned ethnic leaders and grant oil revenue concessions to Delta groups. The Nigerian government needs to forge far-reaching reforms to administration and its approach to revenue sharing, the oil companies to involve credible, community-based organisations in their development efforts and Western governments to pay immediate attention to improving their own development aid.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2355. Nigeria: Want in the Midst of Plenty

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria is Africa's most populous nation and perhaps also its most poorly understood. It has endured six successful and numerous failed military coups, a civil war that cost well over a million lives, three inconclusive transitions to democracy and recurrent factional violence. Despite more than $400 billion in oil revenue since the early 1970s, the economy under performs, and the great majority of citizens have benefited little. More effective institution building is imperative.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2356. Escaping the Conflict Trap: Promoting Good Governance in the Congo?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Democratic Republic of Congo's strides toward peace could prove short-lived if the government and donors do not increase efforts to create a transparent and accountable government. State institutions such as parliament, courts, the army and the civil service remain weak and corrupt. The national elections scheduled for 30 July 2006 risk creating a large class of disenfranchised politicians and former warlords tempted to take advantage of state weakness and launch new insurgencies. Donors must initiate new programs in support of good governance that include more funding to strengthen state institutions (in particular parliament and the various auditing bodies), as well as apply more political pressure to make sure reforms are implemented.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

2357. Beyond Victimhood: Women's Peacebuilding in Sudan, Congo and Uganda

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peacebuilding cannot succeed if half the population is excluded from the process. Crisis Group's research in Sudan, Congo (DRC) and Uganda suggests that peace agreements, post-conflict reconstruction, and governance do better when women are involved. Women make a difference, in part because they adopt a more inclusive approach toward security and address key social and economic issues that would otherwise be ignored. But in all three countries, as different as each is, they remain marginalised in formal processes and under-represented in the security sector as a whole. Governments and the international community must do much more to support women peace activists.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Debt, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

2358. Darfur's Fragile Peace Agreement

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) signed under African Union (AU) auspices on 5 May 2006 between Sudan's government and the faction of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army led by Minni Arkou Minawi (SLA/MM) is a first step toward ending the violence but strong, coordinated action is needed if it is to take hold. The document has serious flaws, and two of the three rebel delegations did not accept it. Fighting between rebel and government forces is down somewhat but violence is worse in some areas due to clashes between SLA factions, banditry, and inter-tribal feuds, while the Chad border remains volatile. If the DPA is not to leave Darfur more fragmented and conflict-prone than before, the international community must rapidly take practical measures to shore up its security provisions, improve prospects for the displaced to return home, bring in the holdouts and rapidly deploy a robust UN peacekeeping force with Chapter VII authority.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Darfur

2359. After Doha: II. Is globalisation history?

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
For some observers, the announcement in late July of the indefinite suspension of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations signalled the beginning of the end for globalisation. The fear was that history would repeat itself; just as an earlier era of globalisation came to a bad end, so too could the current episode.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

2360. After Doha: I. The search for Plan B

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On 24 July, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations was suspended indefinitely, due to irreconcilable differences over the liberalisation of agricultural trade. While the suspension of negotiations may or may not turn out to mark the death of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the future of the international trading system. With even a 'good' outcome for the faltering trade round likely to deliver little in terms of new market access when set against the scale of negotiating resources devoted to Doha, the appetite of the world's trade ministers for any repeat performance will be limited. As a result, the era of giant, set piece trade rounds like Doha and its predecessor the Uruguay Round may well be over.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa