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1451. Urban Fragility and Security in Africa

Author:
Stephen Commins
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Unprecedented rates of urban migration over the past decade have contributed to a dramatic expansion in the size of urban slums and higher levels of poverty, violence, and instability in Africa's cities. The drivers of violence associated with urban fragility are primarily related to weak and illegitimate governance, inequitable development, limited livelihood opportunities, and legal structures that inhibit land tenure and new business start-up. Solutions to Africa's urban fragility cannot be addressed solely through security structures but must be part of a broader development strategy.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

1452. Budget support lessons from post-conflict support to Mozambique

Author:
Lars Buur
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Mirroring an international trend, the new Danish development strategy has support to fragile states as one of its five priority areas. In line with this commitment, and as a relative novelty, the development strategy emphasizes the need to take risks and operate in risky environments. This is clearly important, not only for fragile state engagement and post-conflict reconstruction efforts, but for aid delivery more generally. Nonetheless, this also potentially creates a double-bind situation when risk-taking clashes with the consequences of risk-taking, particularly when tax payers' hard-earned revenue is at stake and politicians become nervous about negative media coverage and bureaucrats fear for their careers. In such a situation, risk-taking is politically and bureaucratically fraught. Development aid in general, and aid to fragile states in particular, is indeed a risky business, circumscribed by processes of rent-seeking, corruption, primitive accumulation and political favouritism; besides the more mundane – but no less risky – policy, planning and implementation failures where “white elephants” can easily be nurtured. Fragile states come in many shapes and supporting them requires considerable flexibility, independence, responsiveness, and local and political knowledge in order to seize the moment of golden opportunity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

1453. Sensitivity of Loan Size to Lending Rates

Author:
Samuel Kobina Annim
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the combined effect of interest rates and poverty levels of microfinance clients on loan size. Cross section data on 2,691 clients and non-clients households from Ghana is used to test the hypothesis of loan price inelasticity. Quantile regression and variants of least squares methods that explore endogeneity are employed. We find the expected inverse relationship only for the 20th to 40th quantile range. The semi-elasticity of loan amount responsiveness to a unit change in interest rate is more than proportionate and significant for the poorest group only. Market segmentation based on poverty level is suggested in targeting and sustaining microfinance clients.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

1454. Are Electoral Coalitions Harmful for Democratic Consolidation in Africa?

Author:
Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Electoral coalitions are becoming increasingly popular among opposition parties in Africa because they offer many advantages with respect to reducing party fragmentation and increasing incumbent turnovers. At the same time, however, they are often comprised of parties that are defined predominantly by their leaders' personalities and exhibit little differentiation in terms of their policy orientation. Based on a dataset spanning all opposition coalitions since 2000 in Africa's electoral democracies, this paper demonstrates not only that coalitions rarely defeat incumbents but also that they are only competitive when major opposition parties are involved. More significantly, the paper highlights that in many countries, a sizeable share of total electoral volatility is due to fluctuations in voting for opposition parties that have belonged to coalitions. The paper argues that such volatility reflects the inability of coalition members to build loyal constituency bases over time, which is critical for party development and broader consolidation.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

1455. Determinants of Industrial Embeddedness: Evidence from African Manufacturing Firms

Author:
Abdelrasaq Na-Allah
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Recent developments in policy initiatives as well as some current practical events have combined to put the spotlight on the issue of industrial embeddedness in sub-Saharan Africa. Though extant research documents some stylized facts, as determinants of its manifestations, their relevance to realities in the sub-continent, have until now been overlooked. Yet, it is difficult to ignore the fact that its constituent economies possess some peculiar attributes with potentially significant implications for embeddedness behaviour. Using data for the country of Lesotho, a probit model is estimated to ascertain the veracity of some of the widely acclaimed explanatory factors. We find, as we argue, that among all, the issue of supply potentials appears the most important.
Topic:
Development and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

1456. Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Is Africa Different?

Author:
Mahvash Saeed Qureshi and Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper revisits the link between exchange rate regimes and trade in the context of Africa's exchange rate arrangements. Applying an augmented gravity model that includes measures of currency unions and pegged regimes, the paper compares Africa's experience with that of the world. Our results suggest that both currency unions and direct pegs promote bilateral trade in Africa vis-à-vis more flexible exchange rate regimes,and that their effect is almost double for the region than that for an average country in the world sample. Further, we find evidence that the effect of conventional pegs is at least as large as that of currency unions in Africa, and that the benefits of fixed exchange rate regimes stem through channels in addition to reduced exchange rate volatility.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

1457. Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique

Author:
Channing Arndt, M. Azhar Hussain, E. Samuel Jones, Virgulino Nhate, Finn Tarp1, and James Thurlow
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Measuring poverty remains a complex and contentious issue. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa where poverty rates are higher, information bases typically weaker, and the underlying determinants of welfare relatively volatile. This paper employs recently collected data on household consumption in Mozambique to examine the evolution of consumption poverty with focus on the period 2002/03 to 2008/09. The paper contributes in four areas. First, the period in question was characterized by major movements in international commodity prices. Mozambique provides an illuminating case study of the implications of these world commodity price changes for living standards of poor people. Second, a novel 'backcasting' approach using a computable general equilibrium model of Mozambique, linked to a poverty module.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

1458. Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War: Regional Heterogeneity in the Structural Relationship Matters

Author:
Markus Brückner
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A common finding in the empirical civil war literature is that population size and per capita income are highly significant predictors of civil war incidence and onset. This paper shows that the common finding of population size and per capita income having a significant average effect on civil war risk in a world sample breaks down once country- and year-specific unobservables are accounted for. However, for Sub-Saharan Africa there continues to be a highly significant average effect of population size and per capita income on civil war risk that is robust to the use of country- and year-fixed effects and instrumental variable techniques.
Topic:
Civil War, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

1459. Does Lack of Innovation and Absorptive Capacity Retard Economic Growth in Africa?

Author:
Steve Onyeiwu
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reviews the innovative capabilities and absorptive capacities of African countries, and investigates whether they have played significant roles in the region's slow and episodic economic growth. Results from cross-country regressions covering 31 Sub-Saharan African countries suggest that growth in Africa is not simply a question of capital accumulation, fertility rates, aid dependency, and stable macroeconomic environment. It is also about strengthening the capacity of African countries to assimilate and effectively use knowledge and technology. Contrary to the views held by many analysts, the growth of African economies does not depend so much on their ability to innovate, but rather on their capacity to absorb and effectively use new technologies. Beyond technological issues, the paper confirms the stylized facts that the size of the government and political stability are important for the growth performance of African countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

1460. Who will feed the World? The production challenge

Author:
Lucia Wegner and Gine Zwart
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Against a background of increasing food insecurity, agriculture in developing countries must undergo a significant transformation in order to increase production and respond to climate change. It is estimated that feeding 8.2 billion people – an additional 1.4 billion – in 2030 would require raising overall food production by some 50 per cent between 2005/07 and 2030. Feeding a larger urban population in a context of increasing scarcity of land and water, while also adopting more sustainable production methods, is a daunting challenge. In Africa, where it is predicted that population levels will double during the same period, the challenge will be even more acute.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Poverty, Science and Technology, Food, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa