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1402. Lessons for UN Electoral Certification from the 2010 Disputed Presidential Poll in Côte d'Ivoire
- Author:
- Lori-Anne Théroux-Bénoni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- After the November runoff of the 2010 presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the country's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced that in the preliminary results, Alassane Ouattara, candidate of the Rassemblement des Républicains, had won. The Constitutional Council cancelled the results from several northern electoral areas favourable to Ouattara, however, and declared Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president who ran for La Majorité Présidentielle, the winner.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1403. Growing but not transforming: Fragmented ruling coalitions and economic developments in Uganda
- Author:
- Anne Mette Kjær and Mesharch Katusiimeh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its leader, Yoweri Museveni, came to power, they had an explicit agenda of industrializing the economy (Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009). Improved infrastructure and increased production and productivity were the focus. Indeed, Uganda enjoyed a period of sustained economic growth of about 7 percent annually between 1990 and 2006 (Piron and Norton, 2004; Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009), made possible by a stable ruling coalition, macro-economic stability, low inflation (until recently), and relative peace. Poverty declined from 56 percent in 1991 to 25 percent in 20101 However, there has been limited structural transformation in terms of a shift from agriculture to industry. A number of explanations for this could be put forward, whether institutional, policy-oriented or geographical (Selassie, 2008; van de Walle, 2001). None of them, however, explains fully how Uganda, in spite of an initially highly dedicated ruling elite, did not succeed in transforming its economy. For example, Uganda is a landlocked country, but so is Zimbabwe, which is far more industrialized. Similarly, while Uganda certainly has weak institutions, so did other countries that have succeeded in industrializing (Selassie, 2008).
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Post Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, and Zimbabwe
1404. Continuity and change in Tanzania's ruling coalition Legacies, crises and weak productive capacity
- Author:
- Ole Therkildsen and France Bourgouin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents analyses of the current composition of Tanzania's ruling coalition, comprised mainly of the ruling party (the CCM), the bureaucracy and the military, of how it has changed over time and of how its funding has evolved. Specifically, it discusses how historical legacies, structural changes in the economy and specific crises have influenced the composition of the ruling coalition, the holding power of its factions and the strategic use of resources to maintain its power. The paper concludes that Tanzania's ruling coalition is presently characterised by conflicts and bargaining among strong factional elites within the ruling coalition and by the increasing power of its lower level factions. Opposition parties are largely excluded from influence and remain weak. Economic entrepreneurs in the formal productive sectors are few and poorly organised. Their relations with the ruling coalition are ambiguous and largely informal, although exchanges of money and rents are of increasing importance in the relationship. Moreover, informal sector entrepreneurs and smallholders in agriculture are largely excluded from the ruling coalition. There is little evidence that the ruling coalition – despite decades of political stability – has used its position to build and strengthen the productive capacity of domestic entrepreneurs.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Development, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
1405. Unfinished Business: A Framework for Peace in the Great Lakes
- Author:
- Rigobert Minani Bihuzo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Landmark peace agreements signed in 2002 by 11 African governments and various nonstate armed groups were meant to end 7 years of war that had ravaged Africa's Great Lakes region. A decade later, instability, tightly intertwined with regional geopolitics, persists. Recurring conflict has killed tens of thousands, mostly civilians, and displaced millions of others. The extended instability has also led to a collapse of basic social services and economic activity in parts of the DRC, resulting in manifold more deaths due to malnutrition, lack of access to basic healthcare, and scarce livelihood opportunities.Amid this breakdown, barbaric forms of violence have emerged. During one 4-day period in the summer of 2011, nearly 400 women, men, and children were raped by militia fighters. Since 1996, there have reportedly been more than 200,000 rapes, which are mostly attributed to armed militias.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1406. Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Although it should provide development opportunities, renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) represents a real threat to stability in a still vulnerable post-conflict country. Exploration has begun, but oil prospecting is nurturing old resentments among local communities and contributing to border tensions with neighbouring countries. If oil reserves are confirmed in the east, this would exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics in the Kivus. An upsurge in fighting since the start of 2012, including the emergence of a new rebellion in North Kivu and the resumption of armed groups' territorial expansion, has further complicated stability in the east, which is the new focus for oil exploration. New oil reserves could also create new centres of power and question Katanga's (DRC's traditional economic hub) political influence. Preventive action is needed to turn a real threat to stability into a genuine development opportunity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
1407. No Longer Poor: Ghana's New Income Status and Implications of Graduation from IDA
- Author:
- Todd Moss and Stephanie Majerowicz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Ghana's largest and most important creditor for the past three decades has been the International Development Association (IDA), the soft loan window of the World Bank. That will soon come to an end. The combination of Ghana's rapid economic growth and the recent GDP rebasing exercise means that Ghana suddenly finds itself above the income limit for IDA eligibility. Formal graduation is imminent and comes with significant implications for access to concessional finance, debt, and relations with other creditors. This paper considers the specific questions related to Ghana's relationship with the World Bank, as well as the broader questions about the country's new middle-income status.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1408. The African National Congress centenary: a long and difficult journey
- Author:
- Raymond Suttner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The current political pre-eminence of the African National Congress in South Africa was not inevitable. The ANC was often overshadowed by other organizations and there were moments in its history when it nearly collapsed. Sometimes it was 'more of an onlooker than an active participant in events'. It came into being, as the South African Native National Congress (SANNC), in 1912, at a time of realignment within both the white and the conquered black communities. In the aftermath of their victory over the Boers in the South African War (1899-1902), the British were anxious to set about reconciling their former enemies to British rule. This included allowing former Boer territories to continue denying franchise and other rights to Africans, thus disappointing the hopes raised by British under - takings to the black population during the war years. For Africans, this 'betrayal' signified that extension of the Cape franchise, which at that time did not discriminate on racial grounds, to the rest of South Africa was unlikely. Indeed, when the Act of Union of 1910 transferred sovereignty to the white population even the Cape franchise was open to elimination through constitutional change—and in course of time it was indeed abolished.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, and South Africa
1409. Lost in translation: why Nigeria's police don't implement democratic reforms
- Author:
- Alice Hills
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The transfer of western norms and practices to police forces in West Africa is a substantial part of a billion-dollar business. Out of the US$452 million the Obama administration requested for law enforcement and narcotics control in Africa during the financial year 2010, US$8 million was allocated to United States officials and contractors for police training, infrastructure and equipment in Liberia alone, while between 2002 and 2009 the United Kingdom channelled some £37 million to reforming or improving the security and justice sector of Nigeria, a key anchor state for UK policies in sub-Saharan Africa (hereafter Africa).
- Topic:
- Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Liberia, and Nigeria
1410. India's rise in Africa
- Author:
- Ian Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The holding of the second Africa–India Forum summit in Addis Ababa in May 2011 highlighted the burgeoning political and economic ties between New Delhi and the African continent. It also reflected the growing significance of interest in Africa on the part of a diverse group of developing nations, of which China and India are perhaps the most noteworthy. China's increasing involvement in Africa has been well analysed and discussed; India's connections with the continent have by comparison been relatively overlooked. Yet the increasing salience of India's interest in Africa has important implications, representing a further diversification of Africa's international relations away from 'traditional' North–South linkages and arguably contributing to a greater range of options for the continent. In the light of these considerations, this article seeks to provide an insight into some of the main implications of the growing Indian relationship with Africa.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, India, and New Delhi