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1261. Boko Haram and the resilience of militant Islam in northern Nigeria

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Northern Nigeria is coping with a violent underground group, Boko Haram, that has been able to carry out attacks mainly in northern states, but also in Abuja by bombing the United Nations Nigerian headquarters. The targeting of prisons, barracks, security officers and politicians makes the lay population feel unsafe, since violence has become unpredictable. The state apparatus is so visibly challenged that it tends to overreact and actually kills even more civilians than Boko Haram does.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Nigeria

1262. The mercy of neighbours: security and governance in a new Somalia

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Somalia has long been a byword for statelessness and extreme insecurity. However, eight years of transitional rule are set to end in 2012, and expectations are rising that continued military-led stabilisation, changing regional security dynamics and efforts to rebuild the Somalia state might soon enable the country to declare an end to two decades of civil war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

1263. From impunity to prosecution? Sexual violence in Sudan beyond Darfur

Author:
Liv Tønnessen
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Serious shortcomings in Sudanese laws and practices contribute to the lack of protection of victims of rape in Sudan. There is need for comprehensive legal reform, particularly of Sudan's Criminal Law of 1991. The categorisation of rape as a form of adultery does not result only in the virtual impossibility of convicting a rapist, but may even lead to the incrimination of the female victim of rape instead. This is particularly problematic considering the widespread use of sexual violence in the Darfur conflict. One of the encouraging consequences of the international attention on war rapes in Darfur is that women activists are increasingly positioning sexual violence against women as a concern on the national political agenda. Several legal reform initiatives are under way within the country among both state and non-state actors alike. The comprehensiveness of the reforms suggested differs in substance, but there is a consensus among both government and civil society actors that there is a need to differentiate between rape and adultery in current law. This consensus is extremely important, especially considering the sensitive and increasingly politicised and polarised debate on the topic. Although women face serious challenges in the Sudanese legal system, it is important to highlight how women activists are launching reform initiatives in order to bring justice to rape victims and to end the system of impunity for rapists. International donors can contribute a great deal in terms of supporting these reform initiatives and facilitating dialogue forums.
Topic:
Crime, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1264. East Africa: Regional Security Organisations and Dynamics

Author:
Katja Lindskov Jacobsen and Johannes Riber Nordby
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The security situation in parts of East Africa is fragile and recently Denmark has begun to take an interest in regional security organisations.
Topic:
Security, Food, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and East Africa

1265. Renewables in the Energy Transition: Evidence on Solar Home Systems and Lighting-Fuel Choice in Kenya

Author:
Jann Lay, Janosch Ondraczek, and Jana Stoever
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We study the determinants of households' choices of lighting fuels in Kenya, including the option of using solar home systems (SHSs). The paper adds new evidence on the factors that influence the introduction and adoption of decentralized and less carbon‐intensive energy sources in developing countries. We capitalize on a unique representative survey on energy use and sources from Kenya, one of the few relatively well‐established SHSs markets in the world. Our results reveal some very interesting patterns in the fuel transition in the context of lighting‐fuel choices. While we find clear evidence for a crosssectional energy ladder, the income threshold for modern fuel use – including solar energy use – is very high. Income and education turn out to be key determinants of SHSs adoption, but we also find a very pronounced effect of SHSs clustering. In addition, we do not find a negative correlation between grid access and SHSs use.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

1266. Origins and Outcomes of Electoral Institutions in African Hybrid Regimes: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Sebastian Elischer, Gero Erdmann, and Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1990s most African countries carried out extensive reforms of their electoral regimes. Adopting a historical institutionalist approach, this paper critically examines the role of institutional path dependence in accounting for the setup of six African electoral regimes. For this purpose, we distinguish between different types of path dependence. The paper further analyzes the extent to which the development of electoral institutions contributed to the regime-type outcome (democratic/hybrid/autocratic). The main emphasis herein is on so-hybrid regimes;” in other words, regimes existing in the grey zone between democracy and autocracy. The paper finds that, while institutional path dependence has a limited but important impact on the setup of the electoral regimes, it is ultimately the process of decision-making during critical junctures that accounts for the regime type outcome. Hybrid regimes lack long-term institutional ownership.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

1267. Bigger Cities, Smaller Screens: Urbanization, Mobile Phones, and Digital Media Trends in Africa

Author:
Adam Clayton Powell III
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Africa will become predominantly urban within 20 years, according to a United Nations report, with cities tripling in size and megacities developing throughout the continent. This suggests significant changes for Africans' consumption of media in general and digital media in particular, with implications for Africa's cities, politics, and civil society.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

1268. Economic and political liberalization, dependency and elite formation in contemporary Mozambique

Author:
José Jaime Macuane
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Discussion of development strategies in Mozambique reveals three main perspectives on the role of elites in the policy process: donor dominance, political dominance over technocracy, and the emergence of non-state (economic and civil society) actors as players in the policy process, although still with a marginal role. These analyses tend to see the identity of these actors as monolithic and clearly identifiable. The identities condition the involvement of these actors in a set of dichotomous relations, such as politicians versus technocrats, donors versus internal actors, and state versus non-state actors. Based on this understanding, this paper analyses the role of elites in policy processes, focusing on elite formation and power relations in Mozambique in a context of an economically dependent country undergoing democratization. The paper shows that the dominant analyses of the role of the elites in the policy process in Mozambique overlook the process of elite formation, which contributes to the existence of multiple and overlapping elite identities in the policy process. In this regard, the paper concludes that, despite the emergence of new elites (economic, societal and bureaucratic) resulting from economic and political liberalization and as an aspect of pro-poor policies, the differentiation between these elitesis more apparent than real because of the strategies they have adopted to maintain their dominance in a context of the increasing importance of electoral politics. Further, the paper concludes that the political elite still dominates the process, even with donor dependence, but that nonetheless this dominance is being challenged by an erosion of legitimacy caused by the low effectiveness of the development strategies, reflected in increasing public contestation over government policies, which opens up a space for changes in the current pattern of elite relations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

1269. Mali : pour une action internationale résolue et concertée

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En l'absence de décisions rapides, fortes et cohérentes aux niveaux régional (Communauté économique des Etats d'Afrique de l'Ouest, Cedeao), continental (Union Africaine, UA) et international (Nations unies) avant la fin de ce mois de septembre, la situation politique, sécuritaire, économique et sociale au Mali se détériorera. Tous les scénarios sont encore ouverts, y compris celui d'un nouveau coup d'Etat militaire et de troubles sociaux dans la capitale, aboutissant à une remise en cause des institutions de transition et à un chaos propice à la propagation de l'extrémisme religieux et de la violence terroriste au Mali et au- delà. Aucun des trois acteurs qui se partagent le pouvoir, le président intérimaire Di oncounda Traoré, le Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra et le chef de l'exjunte, le capitaine Amadou Sanogo, ne dispose d'une légitimité populaire et d'une compétence suffisantes pour éviter une crise plus aiguë. Le pays a urgemment besoin de la mobilisation des meilleures compétences maliennes au-delà des clivages politiques et non d'une bataille de positionnement à la tête d'un Etat qui risque de s'écrouler.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

1270. Organized Crime and Conflict in the Sahel-Sahara Region

Author:
Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For the past decade, increasing instability in the Sahel and Sahara region has been a source of growing concern in Europe and the United States. Western governments have worried that the weakness of state control in the area would allow al-Qaeda in the Islamist Maghreb (AQIM) and other jihadist organizations to expand their influence and establish safe havens in areas outside government control. Such fears appear to have been vindicated by the recent takeover of northern Mali by AQIM and organizations closely associated with it.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe