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1121. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This semiannual review finds that most of the major international currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, and Chinese renminbi, remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The new estimates find this result despite numerous significant exchange rate movements associated with increased volatility in international financial markets at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, and despite a major reduction in the price of oil. The principal cases of exchange rate misalignment continue to be the undervalued currencies of Singapore, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent Sweden and Switzerland, and the overvalued currencies of Turkey, New Zealand, South Africa, and to a lesser extent Australia and Brazil. Even so, the medium-term current account deficit for the United States is already at the outer limit in the FEERs methodology (3 percent of GDP), and if the combination of intensified quantitative easing in Japan and the euro area with the end to quantitative easing in the United States were to cause sizable further appreciation of the dollar, an excessive US imbalance could begin to emerge.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Japan, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and New Zealand

1122. Lessons from Burundi's Security Sector Reform Process

Author:
Nicole Ball
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Progress made by Burundi's Security Sector Development (SSD) program in advancing democratic security sector governance is noteworthy given that there have been relatively few successful security sector reform cases from which to draw. Political will for security sector reform was expanded over time by supporting tangible priorities of the Burundian security sector that established the trust enabling broader engagement on governance issues. The relative success of the SSD program—and particularly its governance pillar—depended heavily on its ability to address politically sensitive issues. SSD's 8-year timeframe provided the time to adapt the program to evolving circumstances, facilitate increasing Burundian ownership of the reform process, and realize the incremental gains from which substantive change was possible.
Topic:
Security and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

1123. The Rising Terrorist Threat in Tanzania: Domestic Islamist Militancy and Regional Threats

Author:
Andre LeSage
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. These attacks, which began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term engagement with Tanzanian officials and support for Tanzanian security agencies to preempt the emergence of a more significant threat to U.S. and international interests in East Africa.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Tanzania

1124. Improving Access to Food in Sub-Saharan Africa: Using the Diffusion of Agroecological Information to Mitigate Climate Change Effects

Author:
Suhani Bhushan and Stephanie C. Fauquier
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
By 2050, the world's population is expected to exceed nine billion people. Population growth is occurring most rapidly in Africa, which will see the population grow from one billion to 2.1 billion by 2050. Africa will see significant population growth; however, agricultural output is not growing at the same rate. Africa's abundant natural resources are being used ineffectively, and the country is unlikely to sustain current population growth. According to reGina Jane Jere (2014), "Barely a fraction of fertile agricultural land [in Africa] is being cultivated - just 10 percent of the 400 million hectares."
Topic:
Agriculture
Political Geography:
Africa

1125. The Role of the Informal Economy in Addressing Urban Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Elizabeth Fraser, Malambo Moonga, and Johanna Wilkes
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
SSA is a region undergoing a significant urban transition. UN-Habitat (2014) estimates that by 2050, 58 percent of the African continent will be living in urban regions, representing an increase from 400 million individuals to over 1.26 billion. This will be accompanied by a burgeoning informal sector, which has grown rapidly since the 1960s across the continent, providing income, employment and livelihoods for millions of poor urban households.
Topic:
Poverty, Food, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa

1126. United Nations Peace Building in Sierra Leone —Toward Vertical Integration?

Author:
Michael Lawrence
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This research report examines the “vertical integration” of United Nations (UN) peace building efforts in Sierra Leone by examining the extent to which the mission reached beyond national government institutions and elites to engage society more broadly in peace building. It focuses on the country's youth crisis as a persistent cause of conflict that presents ample opportunity for civil society engagement, and identifies two modes of coordinating youth peace building efforts across international, national and local scales. After exploring different understandings of peace building between these actors, this report ultimately argues that the United Nations fostered only weak vertical integration on the crucial issue of youth marginalization; that the lack of engagement leaves the peace vulnerable; and that deeper vertical integration can help ameliorate this ongoing challenge.
Topic:
Youth Culture and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Sierra Leone

1127. African Perspectives on Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Author:
Domenico Lombardi, Skylar Brooks, and Ezra Suruma
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On August 7 and 8, 2014, CIGI's Global Economy Program co-hosted a conference with Uganda Debt Network to discuss African perspectives on sovereign debt restructuring. The proceedings, opened by the vice president of Uganda, took place in Kampala, and featured several distinguished participants — including current and former finance ministers and central bank governors, academics and practitioners, and civil society representatives — from Uganda, Liberia, Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Participants also came from civil society organizations and intergovernmental institutions representing broader groups of African countries or the continent as a whole.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Ghana, and Cameroon

1128. Improving Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health in Ghana

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In June 2014, a small team from the CSIS Global Health Policy Center traveled to Ghana to examine U.S. bilateral support for maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH). The purpose of the trip was to plan a return visit with a delegation of U.S. congressional staff in August 2014. Ghana's mixed progress toward meeting Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 related to maternal and child health; its strong relationship on immunizations with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and its longstanding partnership on health with the United States were all reasons we decided to examine the country's MNCH situation. By late July, the acceleration of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa led us to postpone the trip until emergency preparations are not a major focus of the Ghanaian government, the United States, and other partners. Considering the fruitful meetings we had in June, we have captured here some of our initial impressions, observations, and recommendations.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Ghana

1129. Africa Capacity Report 2014: Capacity Imperatives for Regional Integration in Africa

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
This year's Africa Capacity Report takes a fresh look at an old issue: regional integration, which attracted the attention and interest of leaders and development specialists and partners even before the independence ofAfrican countries. For at least three reasons, this is a good time for the African Capacity Building Foundation to be thinking about the capacity imperatives for regional integration.
Topic:
Development, Regional Integration, and Capacity
Political Geography:
Africa

1130. Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes

Author:
Serge Nanourou and Abigal Wilson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Burundi is one of few countries in the world to have adopted a gender quota for its legislature in an effort to promote the inclusion and participation of women in the political process. As such, it presents an informative case study on the impact a gender quota can have as a catalyst for more progressive and inclusive governance. Given the International Foundation for Electoral System’s (IFES) commitment to gender equality and women’s participation in electoral processes and government, a thorough analysis demonstrating the effectiveness of quotas is a vital effort that aids IFES in supporting their use as a tool for democratic progress. As detailed in IFES’ Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes, gender quotas in Burundi, which have their origin in the 2000 Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement that marked the end of a long and bloody civil war and have been encoded in Burundi’s Constitution and Electoral Code, have led to significant increases in the number of women participating in government, which is an important initial step in ensuring meaningful participation of all members of society. Perhaps the greatest indicator of success of the gender quota policy in Burundi is the high rate of women’s representation in the legislature. In the 2010 elections, 31% of National Assembly members and 46% of senators were women. Most remarkable is the fact that provisions to ensure quota requirements, which are set at 30% minimum, did not have to be invoked in order to reach these figures. In contrast, the 30% quota was only reached after seats were added in the 2005 elections. Four years prior to that, before provisions ensuring a minimum of 30% of women’s representation in the legislature had been adopted, less than 20% of seats in both the National Assembly and the Senate were filled by women. This marked improvement from election to election is strong evidence for the efficacy of gender quotas in the Burundian context.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi