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1062. Limits of Control — Challenges to Spatiotemporal Analysis of Sub-State War
- Author:
- Christian Ickler
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
- Abstract:
- Territorial control by violent (non-)state actors (VNSA) in sub-state war features prominently in many fundamental concepts in conflict studies. Though there have been attempts to measure this phenomenon or at least delimit it from a spatiotemporal perspective, these have so far been based either primarily on qualitative expert assessments or rely on dyadic event data to determine contested areas. In this methodological research paper, I present three approaches that can be used to estimate actor presence on basis of spatiotemporal approximation. In doing so, I focus on challenges and obstacles that can be encountered when measuring territorial control via the proxy of territorial contestation. Spatiotemporally disaggregated violent incidence data is used to analyze a small subsample of countries in sub- Saharan Africa in order to determine various ways of visualizing territorial contest. Further points of discussion include the impact of data aggregation, the availability of context data and analytical methods used for these evaluations.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1063. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A B2 Case Study Report
- Author:
- Anna van der Vleuten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
- Abstract:
- As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-vis its member states.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1064. The Heterogeneity of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Do the Horizontal Productivity Effects of Emerging Investors Differ from Those of Traditional Players?
- Author:
- Birte Pfeiffer, Holger Görg, and Lucia Perez-Villar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- It is generally accepted by policymakers that outward foreign direct investment (FDI) can contribute to economic development in host countries via knowledge spillovers to the domestic economy. Given that multinational corporations (MNCs) possess technological or managerial advantages, they can generate positive externalities through the diffusion of knowledge to domestic firms. This knowledge transfer can occur horizontally, if firms in the same sector benefit from the presence of multinationals, or vertically, if upstream or downstream domestic sectors gain from the presence of foreign investors. Yet, whereas the FDI literature has reached a certain level of agreement that vertical relationships with local suppliers generate positive productivity spillovers, the evidence on horizontal spillovers is still mixed and inconclusive, and estimates differ in terms of statistical significance and magnitude (Havranek and Irsova 2013).1 These inconsistencies derive largely from differences in the measurement of foreign presence and the type of data used – cross‐sectional versus panel – across studies (Görg and Strobl 2001). Further, there are determining factors at the firm and country level that enhance the realization of spillovers and need to be taken into account. Görg and Greenaway (2004) show that studies accounting for the heterogeneity of domestic firms, and especially their absorptive capacity, tend to report positive results.
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
1065. Africa's Media Boom: The Role of International Aid
- Author:
- Mary Myers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- This year, 2014, marks 25 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the symbolic end of the Cold War in 1989. It also marks the anniversary of the beginning of an extraordinary proliferation of media outlets in sub-Saharan Africa, which swept across the continent, freeing Africa’s press and liberating the airwaves from monopoly by the state. Economics, technology, and socio-political forces all played major roles in this boom of Africa’s media. But one of the untold stories of these changes is the role of donor aid in this process. This is the subject of the Center for International Media Assistance’s latest report, Africa’s Media Boom: The Role of International Aid, by veteran international media consultant Mary Myers. It explores these questions: · How much of a catalyst were foreign donors in this mushrooming of Africa’s news media? · What were the motives and mechanisms of this aid? · What difference did it make at the time, and subsequently? · Was media proliferation necessarily a good thing–did it lead to pluralism and genuine freedom?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Media
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
1066. Moving to the Adjacent Possible: Discovering Paths for Export Diversification in Rwanda
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann and Jasmina Chauvin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How can Rwanda, which currently has one of the lowest levels of income and exports per capita in the world, grow and diversify its economy in presence of significant constraints? We analyze Rwanda's historical growth and trade performance and find that Rwanda's high transportation costs and limited productive knowledge have held back greater export development and have resulted in excessive rural density. Three basic commodities – coffee, tea, and tin – made up more than 80 percent of the country's exports through its history and still drive the bulk of export growth today. Given Rwanda’s high population density and associated land scarcity, these traditional exports cannot create enough jobs for its growing population, or sustainably drive future growth. Rwanda needs new, scalable activities in urban areas. In this report, we identify a strategy for greater diversification of exports in Rwanda that circumvents the key constraints and is separately tailored for regional and global export destinations. Our results identify more than 100 tradable products that lie at Rwanda's knowledge frontier, are not intensive in Rwanda's scarce resources, and economize on transportation costs. Our analysis produces a vision of a more diversified Rwanda, which can be used as a guide for investment promotion decisions. We illustrate an approach that can be applied to other settings in order to identify opportunities for export diversification that take seriously local constraints and external market opportunities.
- Topic:
- Economic growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Economic Complexity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
1067. Can one retell a Mozambican reform story through Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation?
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Many public sector reforms in developing countries fail to make governments more functional. This is typically because reforms introduce new solutions that do not fit the contexts in which they are being placed. This situation reflects what has recently been called the 'capability trap' in development—which results in many interventions producing new forms that are not functional in states across the globe. The work on capability traps suggests that reforms can yield more functional influence in even the most complex states, however; if reformers adopt non-traditional approaches to doing reform. In particular, the work suggests that reforms will tend to be more contextually fitted if: (i) They are driven by problems that agents in the context care about; and (ii) They are introduced iteratively—through a stepwise process where ideas are tried and lessons are learned and used to adapt (or fit) ideas to context. The capability traps work embeds these ideas into an approach to doing reform called Problem Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA). This approach has deep roots in various literatures but many observers still ask how PDIA-type reforms could work to foster successful reform in complex hierarchical developing country governments and whether these approaches really help foster reforms that better fit such complex contexts. This paper responds to such question by describing an action research study where PDIA is being used to retell a story of reform that has to date been limited. The action research study is in Mozambique’s judicial sector and will examine whether and how a problem driven iterative approach can (i) flush out the contextual factors that often limit reform success, (ii) provide a viable route to find and fit reforms that actually foster greater functionality, and (iii) promote the authority needed to ensure change is implemented and institutionalized.
- Topic:
- Government, Developing World, Reform, and Public Sector
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
1068. How should Uganda grow?
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Brad Cunningham, John Matovu, Rosie Osire, and Kelly Wyett
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- ncome per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years. This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances. Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. Future growth will depend on achieving sufficient export dynamism. In addition, growth faces a number of other challenges: low urbanization rate, rapid rural population growth and high dependency ratios. However, both the dependency ratio and fertility rates have begun to decline recently. Rural areas are also severely overcrowded with low-productivity subsistence agriculture as a pervasive form of production. Commercial agriculture has great possibilities to increase output, but as the sector improves its access to capital, inputs and technology it will shed jobs rather than create them. These challenges combined tell us that future growth in Uganda will require a rapid rate of export growth and economic diversification. The country faces the prospect of an oil boom of uncertain size and timing. It could represent an important stepping stone to achieve external sustainability, expanded income and infrastructure and a greater internal market. However, as with all oil booms, the challenges include avoiding the Dutch disease, managing the inevitable volatility in oil incomes and avoiding inefficient specialization in oil. Policies that set targets for the non-oil deficit could help manage some of these effects, but a conscious strategy to diversify would still be needed. The best strategy is therefore to use the additional oil revenue and accompanying investments to promote a diversification strategy that is sustainable. To determine how to encourage such a transformation, we draw on a new line of research that demonstrates how development seldom implies producing more of the same. Instead, as countries grow, they tend to move into new industries, while they also increase productivity in existing sectors. In this report, we analyze what those new industries might be for Uganda. To do so, we first look to those products which balance the desire to increase the diversification and complexity of production, while not over-stretching existing capabilities. These include mostly agricultural inputs, such as agrochemicals and food processing. In addition, Uganda should concurrently develop more complex industries, such as construction materials, that are reasonably within reach of current capabilities and will be in great demand in the context of an oil boom. Here, the fact that Uganda is landlocked and faces high import costs will provide natural protection to the expanding demand in Uganda and neighboring countries. We conclude with a discussion of the government policies that will support Uganda in developing new tradable industries.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, and Economic growth
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
1069. Wildlife Poaching: Africa’s Surging Trafficking Threat
- Author:
- Bradley Anderson and Johan Jooste
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Surging demand for ivory and rhino horn, mainly in Asia, has put wild African elephants and rhinoceroses on the path to extinction. More than an environmental tragedy, however, wildlife poaching and trafficking has exacerbated other security threats and led to the co-option of certain African security units. African states need to develop a broad range of law enforcement capabilities to tackle what is effectively a transnational organized crime challenge. Asian and other international partners, meanwhile, must take action to reduce runaway demand for wildlife products.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Political Economy, and Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1070. Creating Sustainable Peacekeeping Capability in Africa
- Author:
- Daniel Hampton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Nearly half of all uniformed peacekeepers are African and countries like Ghana, Rwanda, Senegal, and South Africa have provided troops to UN and AU missions almost continuously over the past decade. Despite such vast experience, African peacekeepers are often reliant on international partners for training before they can deploy on these missions. Institutionalizing a capacity-building model within African defense forces is a more sustainable approach that maintains a higher level of readiness to respond to emerging crises and contingencies on the continent.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Africa