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1. Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the midst of the Ebola crisis, Guinea is preparing for the presidential election due in 2015. The exact election date is just one of many points being contested by the government and opposition. The political debate is increasingly held along ethnic lines, rallying the vast majority of the Malinké behind President Alpha Condé's coalition and the Peul behind former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo's alliance. Violent protests around elections in 2012 and 2013, with highly contested results, brought both sides to the negotiating table, but the July 2014 talks about a future electoral framework quickly failed, marking the parties' deep suspicion and unwillingness to compromise. A highly flawed judiciary adds to the climate of uncertainty and the government is reluctant to listen to calls for a new round of dialogue and international mediation. In its latest briefing, Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections, the International Crisis Group outlines the steps that should be taken to ensure peaceful elections.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Government, Political Power Sharing, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

2. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. Simmering Discontent in the Western Sahara

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory annexed by Morocco despite Algerian objections, is a critical region that could quickly become part of the criminal and terrorist networks threatening North Africa and the Sahel. The undergoverned areas abutting the territory are becoming major hubs for drug trafficking, contraband smuggling, and weapons circulation. And Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is extending its reach in the region. The potential for destabilization is real.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Terrorism, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

4. Learning from Sudan's 2011 Referendum

Author:
Jon Temin and Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Numerous predictions asserted that the referendum on the secession of southern Sudan would lead to renewed civil war. Despite ongoing violence in many parts of Sudan and South Sudan, the referendum process was largely peaceful. This unanticipated result may prove a relatively rare instance of documented success in conflict prevention. Warnings of impending violence came from many sources. They were timely but tended to be vague. Whether they were overly dire because of faulty assumptions about the conflict dynamics deserves scrutiny. Two prominent narratives explain why the referendum process was peaceful: one that emphasizes domestic factors and another that focuses on international intervention by Africans and westerners. It is highly likely that both contain important explanations for the peaceful referendum. People in Sudan and South Sudan tend to emphasize the domestic narrative; members of the international community tend to focus on international engagement. Several lessons for global conflict prevention can be drawn from the Sudan referendum experience: Preventing conflict in what seems like dire circumstances is possible. Coordinated outside actions should support local conflict-mitigating dynamics. Technical actions, such as election or referendum logistics, can have a significant positive impact on political processes. International actors need to be receptive to taking preventive action. Focusing on successes, as well as failures, is critical.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

5. Building Civil Servant Capacity in South Sudan

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
'Coaching and mentoring for capacity' has become a popular approach to civil servant capacity building in fragile states. in South Sudan, the 'IGAD initiative' is currently deploying 200 coaches and mentors to South Sudan from Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. this brief recaps on some main tenets of the initiative and presents a number of policy recommendations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Sovereignty, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Ethiopia, and South Sudan

6. Diversity, Unity, and Nation Building in South Sudan

Author:
Jok Madut Jok
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The government of South Sudan and its development partners appear to be heavily focused on state building and less so on nation building: the question of how to turn the young state into a nation in which all South Sudanese can see themselves represented. Whatever projects a new country conceives, it has to view nation and state as inseparable components of the same project, not focusing too much on one without investing in the other. Most South Sudanese interviewed for this project assert that the most obvious impediment to national cohesion is exclusion from the national platform, especially exclusion along ethnic lines. Corruption, nepotism, and exclusion from access to government jobs were also raised as issues that the government will need to address directly for citizens to have pride in their nation. There is a widespread sense of worry about the viability of South Sudan as a nation due to insecurity, especially insecurity rooted in the current ethnic conflicts occurring in seven out of the ten states. Both political leaders and ordinary citizens recognize the importance of national unity and the equitable display and celebration of cultural diversity as a national asset; representation of all ethnic nationalities and creation of a broad-based government is central to South Sudan's transition to nationhood. The immediate challenge involves creating programs that promote citizenship in the nation over ethnic citizenship. The opaque climate of the transitional constitutional review process has not earned the government much trust from all sectors of society, and this has made for a bad start toward national consensus. As a multiethnic society, South Sudan also is confronted with the question of a language policy. To speed up the process of nation building, the government will need to transform current discussions on language into practical decisions regarding the development of a national language. Identifying five national languages that represent the three greater regions of the country would be one way to approach it. Ultimately, a viable South Sudan has to stand on four strong pillars: political unity, a disciplined military, quick and equitable service delivery, and a vibrant civil society.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

7. South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

Author:
Berenika Stefanska
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 9 July 2011, South Sudan will declare its independence from the Republic of Sudan. The independence comes after 22 years of civil war, which ended in 2005 thanks to an internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The treaty was signed by President Omar al-Bashir and the late John Garang, head of the rebel Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM). It included provisions for a referendum in January 2011 in the 10 southern states to determine their political future. People in the south voted overwhelmingly (98.7%) for independence. The result of the referendum was recognised by the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Most countries already have stated their intention to recognise the Republic of South Sudan.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa