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341. Game of zones. The quest for influence in Europe's neighbourhood

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Russia's annexation of the Crimea and subsequent meddling in Ukraine does not constitute a game-changer. It is just a reminder that at least since the war with Georgia in 2008 Russia has been and still is playing the same game: a "game of zones",aimed at (re)establishing an exclusive sphere of influence. Many of us Europeans had forgotten that, or had pushed it to the back of our minds, preferring to believe that we were not engaged in a zero-sum game in our eastern neighbourhood.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

342. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:
Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

343. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A B2 Case Study Report

Author:
Anna van der Vleuten
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-vis its member states.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

344. Mali’s Public Mood Reflects Newfound Hope

Author:
Michael Bratton and Peter Penar
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In an Afrobarometer survey in December 2012, three quarters of adult Malians were worried that the country was moving in “the wrong direction.” At that time, at the depths of a profound national crisis, most Malians thought the future looked bleak. A year later, however, a follow-up survey reveals newfound hope in the future. By December 2013, two thirds of all Malians now consider that that the country is headed in the “right direction.” What explains this remarkable turnaround in the public mood? The upswing in the country’s collective frame of mind within the space of a single year is traced to several positive developments. These include an improved security situation, the restoration of a freely elected government, and rising confidence in economic recovery.
Topic:
Security, Development, Public Opinion, Internal Displacement, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

345. Sudan: Security Crackdown Puts Dialogue at Risk

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Arrests of leading opposition figures, including Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the National Ummah Party and imam of the Ansar sect, and Ibrahim Sheikh, chair of the Sudanese Congress Party, have cast doubt on current transformations in the Sudanese political landscape. The government recently resumed restrictions on press freedoms and suspended the newly launched al-Saiha newspaper which had waged a widely-publicised media campaign after exposing extensive corruption in government agencies. Perhaps the most important development casting doubt on the political landscape is the expanding pivotal role played by security forces and the National Intelligence Service in politics and the military. These incidents raise questions about the government’s commitment to change and further complicate the country’s political landscape. The likely repercussions may be a paper reshuffle in the political game, with a reshaped balance of power as an alternative to escalation during a time the public is hoping the Sudanese National Dialogue Initiative will succeed.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

346. Plausible Deniability: Proxy Wars in Africa

Author:
Jennifer L. De Maio
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In the decades since independence, proxy wars have frequently threatened regional security in Africa. Many interstate and intrastate wars on the continent have become increasingly complicated by the involvement of opposing nation states using third parties as surrogates for fighting each other directly. As civil wars threaten to spill across borders and destabilize entire regions, the nature and extent of states using these wars as proxies for their own agendas needs to be studied more systematically. ​ During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union relied on proxy wars as a means of engaging the enemy indirectly and advancing their foreign policy agendas, while leaving minimal visible blood on their hands. These proxy wars between the superpowers played out across Africa, from the Horn to Angola to Mozambique. In the aftermath of the Cold War, the superpower competition for regional supremacy has been replaced by new proxy wars and trans-border alliances between African states and local armed groups. As Joseph argues, the recourse to proxy wars reflects the challenges faced by the African state and its inability to institutionalize democratic structures. But the problem is much deeper. Engaging in proxy wars is a critical strategy for state-building, and develops from calculations by state leaders to advance their policy agendas. Threatened regimes wishing to maintain their hold on power may allow and enable civil tensions to spill across borders and destabilize neighboring countries. This approach can be used as a means to consolidate power domestically and spread influence internationally. A civil war thereby becomes a proxy war between states, with the advantage that governments can distance themselves from atrocities committed by their proxies by either attributing blame to rebel factions or by just claiming that they are in fact not sponsoring any group. This essay proposes that governments have an incentive to allow civil wars to spread across borders in order to engage in proxy battles with neighboring states. Governments can utilize proxy wars to strengthen their hold on the domestic state apparatus and to gain regional superiority. This strategy can include using militarily weak countries as proxies in order to assert their regional dominance and broadcast domestic power. Proxy wars can then advance domestic and foreign policy agendas while allowing states to avoid engaging in costly and bloody direct combat. The use of proxy war as a tool of statecraft is thus calculated and controlled...
Topic:
Security, War, Proxy War, and Statecraft
Political Geography:
Africa, Soviet Union, and United States of America

347. Purveyors of Terror: Counterterrorism in Africa's Failing States

Author:
Thomas Dempsey
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Weak and failing states in Africa continue to offer challenging environments for counterterrorism campaigns in both a military and a civil law enforcement context. Weakly governed and ungoverned spaces in these states offer venues that violent extremist groups continue to exploit as platforms for terrorism. These groups – Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Al-Shabaab in Somalia are simply two of the more prominent examples – use these weakly governed and ungoverned spaces to recruit new followers, build capability and capacity, and launch new terrorist attacks while avoiding the scrutiny and attention of African security sectors and their international partners. A defining feature of these weakly governed and ungoverned spaces in Africa is the predominance of non-state security actors, including local militias, neighborhood watch organizations, traditional hunting societies, and traditional, customary, or religious justice processes that operate outside of the formal court system. Some of these non-state actors themselves represent violent extremist groups involved in acts of terror. Others play central roles in the mediation of disputes (administration of justice), delivery of police services, or as military surrogates in providing for local defense. I argued in Counterterrorism in African Failed States that collaboration between U.S. military forces and law enforcement agencies is essential to effective counterterrorism interventions in African failed states.[i] Subsequent counterterrorism operations in the region have confirmed that argument, and African senior police and militaryleaders increasingly emphasize the importance of collaboration between military and police forces.[ii] In addition to military forces and law enforcement services, counterterrorism in Africa must effectively address the need for effective partners in the justice sector – prosecutors (and defense counsels), courts, prisons and corrections – in implementing counterterrorism strategies. All three components of counterterrorism strategies must confront the reality that weakly governed and ungoverned spaces are ground zero for counterterrorism on the continent, and that non-state security actors are a defining feature of those spaces. To address the purveyors of terror – in most cases, non-state security actors like Al-Shabaab in Somalia or AQIM in the Sahel – counterterrorism strategies in ungoverned and weakly governed spaces in Africa must address all of the non-state security actors that proliferate in those areas.
Topic:
Security, Fragile/Failed State, Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa

348. International justice should prosecute beyond the bounds of Africa

Author:
Max du Plessis
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The ICC has a blind spot which is crippling its credibility
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, Palestine, and Syria

349. New Meeting Note: Security and Development in the Sahel-Sahara

Author:
Mireille Affa'a-Mindzie
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
After the severe twin crises that nearly brought Mali to its knees in January 2012, the country is gradually recovering from their debilitating consequences. In August 2013, Mali successfully elected its new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, thus putting an end to an eighteen-month-long transitional government that was put in place following the March 2012 coup. Even though the violence has abated and renewed hope seems to be in the air, the structural causes of the Malian conflict are still stubbornly present and their consequences are still being felt by neighboring Sahel countries that suffer from similar underlying ills. The situation in Mali and other concerned states in the region generated a renewed interest in the Sahel-Sahara region and in efforts to stabilize this region. This prompted the International Peace Institute, the Executive Secretariat of the Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel-Saharan Areas of Niger (SDS Sahel Niger), and the Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre 4S) to convene an international seminar on security and development in the Sahel-Sahara on February 15 and 16, 2013, in Niamey, Niger.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Development, Economics, Peace Studies, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

350. Towards a Taxonomy of Militaries in Contemporary Africa

Author:
Jeffrey Herbst, Alan Doss, and Greg Mills
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The African development and governance picture is today highly differentiated with some countries developing successful democracies while riding a wave of growth, others facing outright institutional failure, and a great number in-between. Critical to understanding the different paths that countries have taken, and the likely even greater divergences in the future, is the relationship between civilians and soldiers. Starting soon after independence in the early 1960s, the seizure of power by soldiers was emblematic of the problems African states faced in promoting good governance. Now, at a time when most soldiers are back in their barracks, economic growth has accelerated and democratization has progressed. However, the picture varies greatly from country-to-country. In this paper, we develop a taxonomy of African militaries to understand why some countries have better civil-military relations than others, what is the likely path in the future, and the potential role, if any, for outsiders. African militaries are characterised, just as African states themselves, by different capacities and civil-military records.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, Political Economy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Sierra Leone