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21. Navigating Crisis and Opportunity: The Peacekeeping Transition in Darfur

Author:
Daniel Forti
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In the face of evolving security dynamics and geopolitical pressures, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council and the UN Security Council initiated the withdrawal of the AU-UN Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) in 2017. This transition is a uniquely complex undertaking—all the more so following Sudan’s political revolution in April 2019, which required the UN and AU to rapidly adapt their support to the country. This complex environment is putting all the principles of peacekeeping transitions to the test. This paper examines the dynamics of this peacekeeping transition in Darfur, focusing on UNAMID’s drawdown and reconfiguration, as well as the UN’s efforts to build the capacity of other actors to sustain peace following the mission’s exit. It highlights five broad priorities for this transition going forward: Strengthening political engagement between the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council; Translating the AU-UN joint political strategy into an effective follow-on presence; Reinforcing the transition concept; Integrating human rights and protection in all areas of work; and Sustaining international attention and financial support. This paper is part of a larger IPI project on UN transitions and is complemented by similar case studies on UN peacekeeping transitions in Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, and Liberia, as well as a paper exploring experiences and lessons from these three transitions.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Darfur, Haiti, Liberia, and Côte d'Ivoire

22. Transitioning to National Forces in Somalia: More Than an Exit for AMISOM

Author:
Fiona Blyth
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
When the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deployed in 2007, the AU and the UN Security Council expected that the United Nations would eventually take over from the AU force. But while a UN peacekeeping operation remains a theoretical option for the council, its prospects have diminished. Instead, the focus of Somali and international efforts has shifted to planning for AMISOM to transition directly Somali security forces without an interim UN mission. This issue brief outlines the factors behind this shift in intentions, including the new Somali administration’s commitment to assuming responsibility for security, a general agreement that the time had come for an exit strategy, and the Security Council’s reduced appetite for peace operations. It also lays out the objectives, approaches, and status of implementation of the Somali Transition Plan. Despite steady progress, there is still a long way to go in implementing this plan. Reforms are encountering resistance from vested interests, and al-Shabab poses an ongoing threat. Any sustainable transition from AMISOM must be a long-term project that includes not just a military handover but also political decisions on security and the structure of the state. It also depends on aligning national priorities and international efforts and the willingness of all security actors in Somalia to work together in a pragmatic, transparent, and coordinated way.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Transition, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

23. Lessons for “Partnership Peacekeeping” from the African Union Mission in Somalia

Author:
Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Deployed to Mogadishu in March 2007, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) operates through a complicated and extensive system of partnerships. This has been referred to as the “AMISOM model” of “partnership peacekeeping.” While this specific configuration of forces and mechanisms is unlikely to be repeated, AMISOM remains the longest-standing case of a peace enforcement operation built on such international partnerships. If the AU and UN are going to continue deploying missions into such difficult environments, AMISOM’s experience offers lessons for how partnership peacekeeping can work better. This report summarizes the main operational-level lessons across seven themes: force generation, logistics, security sector reform, protection of civilians, strategic communications, stabilization, and exit strategy. Many of these lessons have not been truly learned, internalized, and acted upon by the actors and organizations in question.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Partnerships, and Africa Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

24. The Intelligence Cycle of Targeted Killing in the United States

Author:
Christine Sixta Rinehart
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The United States has been using Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) to assassinate terrorist targets since its first RPA strike on November 3, 2002, when a U.S. Predator fired a hellfire missile at a car traveling through the Mar’ib province of Yemen. The intelligence cycle of this targeted killing process is murky at best, and the policy has changed throughout the successive administrations of U.S. presidents. Details exist but there is no defined tangible chain of analysis concerning the selection of the target, the monitoring of the target, and finally, the assassination of the target. This paper attempts to elucidate the intelligence chain of analysis concerning American targeted killing and examine how the intelligence cycle of targeted killing varies through successive presidential administrations. ​ This paper will begin with a short analysis of relevant literature, although sources concerning this topic are scarce. The occurrence of targeted killings of U.S. citizens will also be explained in the literature section. The paper will continue with an elaboration of a generic intelligence cycle model, which will be used to illustrate the intelligence cycle of U.S. targeted killings using both the Reaper and the Predator RPA.[1] The paper will then address differences in the intelligence cycles and processes that have occurred between successive presidents since targeted killing first began in 2002 with President George W. Bush. Lastly, the paper will provide policy prescriptions in reference to improving targeted killing in the Middle East and Africa...
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Drones, and Targeted Killing
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

25. Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel

Author:
Pauline Le Roux
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years. Violent events involving extremist groups in the region have doubled every year since 2015. In 2019, there have been more than 700 such violent episodes (see Figure 1). Fatalities linked to these events have increased from 225 to 2,000 during the same period. This surge in violence has uprooted more than 900,000 people, including 500,000 in Burkina Faso in 2019 alone. Three groups, the Macina Liberation Front (FLM),1 the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS),2 and Ansaroul Islam,3 are responsible for roughly two-thirds of the extremist violence in the central Sahel.4 Their attacks are largely concentrated in central Mali, northern and eastern Burkina Faso, and western Niger (see Figure 2). Multiple security and development responses have been deployed to address this crisis. While some progress has been realized, the continued escalation of extremist violence underscores that more needs to be done.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

26. A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Trafficking, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Sahel, and Niger

27. The Development of Hydrocarbons in East Africa: Political and Security Challenges

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
East Africa has the potential to experience a gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom in the coming years due to several projects that have been released. Mozambique has approved two projects totaling more than 15 million tons per year (Mt/yr.) of liquefied gas and a third should be started by the end of 2019. The first ENI Floating Liquefied Natural Gas plant (FLNG) will come onto the market in 2022 and four other onshore liquefaction trains, two of which will produce 6.44 Mt (Anadarko/Total) and two of which will produce 7.6 Mt (ExxonMobil/ENI), will be available around 2025. However, with the recoverable reserves, the companies involved are counting on 50 or even 60 Mt/yr. by 2030. This volume will help this East African country to achieve the world’s fourth-largest LNG export capacity in the medium term after the United States, Qatar and Australia. As for Tanzania, no development should be approved before 2020 in the best-case scenario.
Topic:
Security, Development, Oil, and Gas
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and East Africa

28. Middle Eastern States in the Horn of Africa: Security Interactions and Power Projection

Author:
Brendon J. Cannon and Federico Donelli
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In December 2017, at the end of a bilateral meeting, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Sudanese counterpart Umar al-Bashir announced a deal to restore Suakin, a ruined Ottoman port town on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. The agreement also gave Turkey the right to build a naval dock to maintain civilian and military vessels. More than one year later there are doubts as to how much work Turkey will do beyond restoring the Ottoman town. However, certain regional states are uncomfortable with the apparent consolidation of a permanent Turkish presence in the region, thereby feeding a process of perceived securitization in and around the Red Sea. A few months later, in April 2018, the flag of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) began to flutter on the small island of Socotra. The position of this isolated Arabian Sea island makes it a strategic outpost for the conduct of ongoing UAE military operations in Yemen as well as control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the entrance, from the south, to the Red Sea. The two seemingly unrelated events are yet more evidence, for some, of a complicated game of chess between rival ideological and political blocs in the Middle East that now stretches into Africa. The Middle East region has been the scene, for decades, of political balancing acts amidst continuous power and influence scrambles due to its structural characteristics – a highly dynamic and amorphous regional system in which power relations are fluid and order is in short supply – and the lack of a clear regional hegemon. As noted by professor Fawaz Gerges, following the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, a “psychological and epistemological rupture” has occurred in the Middle East.[1] Although mostly limited to the domestic dimension of the states, these dynamics appear to have taken on an extra-regional dimension that increasingly feeds perceptions and narratives of shifting distributions of power. A wide range of academic and think tank literature has emphasized these changes in light of an emerging identity Cold War pitting conservative Sunni monarchies against a revolutionary Shi’a Iran. Recent security interactions across the Red Sea seem to form part of this intertwined rebalancing dynamic across the wider Middle East regional security complex (MERSC).
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Power Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, and Horn of Africa

29. UN Funding Cuts for Peacekeeping Have Consequences for Ghana: After sixty years of UN peacekeeping

Author:
Fiifi Edu-Afful, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Maya Mynster Christensen, Naila Salihu, and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Contributing personnel to UN peacekeepinghas been central to Ghana’s foreign policy andessential in shaping the country’s security sector. However, with the police and militarystill facing considerable challenges at home, and with the prospect of funding for UN peacekeeping missions being cut, Ghana’s domestic stability might be affected. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Peacekeeping experiences should be used more forcefully to create accountability among Ghana’s security forces. ■ There should be a comprehensive review of Ghana’s approach to international peacekeeping with a view to understanding and articulating more clearly the relationship between strategic foreign-policy objectives and the provision of domestic security. ■ The UN and troop-contributing countries should make an effort to understand the implications for them both of planned cuts in peacekeeping budgets.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

30. Ghana's Peacekeeping Efforts Abroad Have an Impact at Home: The Many Implications of UN Peacekeeping

Author:
Festus Aubyn, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Fiifi Edu-Afful, Maya Mynster Christensen, and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The UN deploys thousands of peacekeepers in support of peace processes and state-building in countries and regions that are emerging from conflict. The example of Ghana shows that the impacts of these missions are not just felt in countries that host UN missions, but also in those that provide them with troops. Recommendations ■ The Ghanaian government should conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of peacekeeping on the country’s security sector in order to inform its contributions to the UN in the future. ■ The Ghanaian army and police should continue to build on the lessons learned from deploying security personnel abroad and maintain their focus on consolidating the democratic and accountable foundations of the security sector. ■ The UN should build a stronger understanding of how countries that contribute to peace- keeping missions are affected politically, financially and in respect of their security by making these contributions.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana