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121. A Very Ethiopian Tragedy: Tigray, the TPLF, and Cyclical History

Author:
Richard Reid
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article seeks to place the recent conflict in Ethiopia in deeper historical context. It traces the roots of Tigray province’s identity through various phases in Ethiopia’s history, and argues that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is the culmination of decades, even centuries, of a struggle for status within the Ethiopian nation-state. The article proposes that Ethiopia’s history, inseparable from that of neighboring Eritrea, is characterized by cyclical shifts in access to power, as well as conflicts over inclusivity and cohesion, and that crushing the TPLF militarily will not resolve those conflicts.
Topic:
Security, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

122. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Mali

Author:
Farah Hegazi, Florian Krampe, and Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are changing the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts are taking place. Following a similar assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia in 2019, this SIPRI Policy Paper offers another glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the context of climate change, this time by providing an in-depth assessment of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Climate change in Mali has affected natural resource-based livelihoods and contributed to undermining human security in a context of conflict and weak governance. Furthermore, the compound character of climate change is an increasingly strong factor that reshapes social, political and economic contexts, thereby potentially amplifying local grievances and marginalization. These interactions all contribute to hindering MINUSMA’s efforts to support peace and stability in Mali. MINUSMA, however, explicitly and implicitly responds to climate-related security risks. For example, its divisions address natural resource-related conflicts, supporting peace and stability in a context where natural resources are often crucial to livelihoods and human security. MINUSMA also works to reduce its own potential negative environmental impact. Nevertheless, it faces three main limitations in addressing climate-related security risks: prioritization of the issue vis-à-vis the mandate, limited capacity within the mission, and coordination challenges between the mission and the UN Country Team. By analysing how climate change affects MINUSMA’s mandate, and the mission’s responses to it, the insight offered in this paper suggests the need for increased knowledge, training and prioritization surrounding climate security. This applies not only to MINUSMA, but also to other missions located in areas of high climate change exposure, and more generally to the broader UN system.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

123. Conflict Mediation and Peacebuilding in the Sahel: The Role of Maghreb Countries in an African Framework

Author:
Virginie Baudais, Amal Bourhrous, and Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Conflict dynamics in the Sahel are complex. The region faces a multidimensional crisis that includes the proliferation of terrorist groups, criminal networks, environmental pressures, state weaknesses and severe governance problems. In addition to this internal context, the Sahel crisis has been affected by external factors, such as the fall of Muammar Gaddafi and the civil war in Libya. Its deeper causes can be found in the structural factors of fragility in the sociopolitical dynamics of internal divisions, serial uprisings and weak states. Having started as a largely Malian conflict, the crisis now affects the whole Sahel region and, despite the deployment of military and security operations, it continues to get worse. A new approach is needed. The authors of this Policy Paper identify regionally and locally driven solutions as one such way to support development and promote peace. They highlight how stronger involvement of the Maghreb countries that share borders with the crisis-affected countries to their south could be a critical factor in building the foundations of stability and starting to meet longer-term development objectives. Given their engagement with Sahel crises in the past and the multiple linkages that connect the two regions, the role of these countries—and especially Algeria and Morocco—could be pivotal. Despite challenges, African-led initiatives are perceived to be more legitimate and to have a deeper understanding of local contexts. The authors thus recommend that the African Union, with its emphasis on endeavouring to bring ‘African solutions to African problems’, provides the framework for coordinated action in the Sahel. This paper offers a fresh assessment of the situation in the Sahel in the context of relations with neighbouring Maghreb countries. The authors’ insightful analysis and recommendations will be of interest to policymakers in Africa, in Europe and elsewhere, as well as to local actors and other stakeholders involved in mediation and peacebuilding efforts in the Sahel.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Maghreb, and Sahel

124. The European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic: An Assessment

Author:
Annelies Hickendorff and Igor Acko
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This SIPRI Background Paper provides an overview of the European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic (EUTM RCA) and assesses its impact on the country’s conflict dynamics since it was established in 2016. The second of three country-specific papers, it is part of a larger SIPRI project analysing the effectiveness of the EU’s training missions in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali. All three papers will feed into a synthesis paper that will offer a comparative analysis of the missions and recommendations for the way forward. This paper analyses EUTM RCA’s main training and advisory activities, before assessing its political and operational impacts. It summarizes the main factors that account for the mission’s successes and limitations, and makes five recommendations to augment the future impact of the mission. It concludes that EUTM RCA has made an impact in terms of military capacity building and assistance to the national Ministry of Defence, but so far there has been little tangible progress in terms of structural reform of the defence sector or the transformation of the armed forces. In addition, EUTM RCA faces many obstacles that lie largely beyond its control. The main challenges of lack of national ownership and limited political engagement cannot be addressed with technical solutions alone.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, European Union, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

125. Supporting Small Arms and Light Weapons Controls through Development Assistance: The Case of sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Lucile Robin
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) has had a negative impact on conflict, security and development. In order to help states to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the proliferation of these weapons, some states as well as regional and international organizations have established a series of funding instruments and assistance programmes that support or provide SALW control-related assistance. In view of the recognized linkages between SALW proliferation, security and development, official development assistance (ODA) has progressively become an eligible source of funding in this field. However, there remains limited clarity on which assistance activities have been supported through development spending. A comprehensive assessment of the use of ODA to support SALW control-related assistance could help donors, policymakers and interested stakeholders to understand how assistance policies have adjusted to the recognition of the link between conventional arms control and sustainable development made in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Focusing on SALW control-related assistance provided in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study and comparing information included in separate data sets compiled by SIPRI and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, this report attempts to provide information on which relevant activities have been supported through ODA in this region. It shows that only a limited number of donors have used ODA to support SALW control-related assistance and that they have different practices in the way they report on the use of these funds. It also outlines the challenges that make mapping this assistance a particularly difficult exercise.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

126. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

127. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda

Author:
Patryk Pawlak
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

128. Banditry in Nigeria: Insights from Situational Action and Situational Crime Prevention Theories

Author:
Tope Shola Akinyetun
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Insecurity in Nigeria is a recurring phenomenon that threatens the well-being of its citizens. The multipronged occurrence constitutes a bane to development and leads to the proliferation of crime. As a multifaceted quandary, insecurity assumes varying dimensions in different geopolitical zones. The South West is plagued by a surge in cybercrime, armed robbery, kidnapping, domestic crime, extrajudicial killings, herder-farmer conflicts, ritual killings, and banditry. The South East is a haven for ritual killings, commercial crime, secessionist agitation, kidnapping, herder-farmer clashes, attacks by unknown gunmen, and banditry. The South remains threatened by militancy, kidnapping, and environmental agitation. The North East has been subject to a humanitarian crisis lasting over a decade and caused by the Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State in West Africa Province. Meanwhile, the North West is enmeshed in illegal mining, ethnoreligious killings, and banditry. It is, therefore, an axiom that insecurity in Nigeria has assumed a disproportionate geopolitical stance and that it has claimed thousands of lives and extensive damage and loss of property.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

129. Conflict Dynamics in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province

Author:
Theo Neethling
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The ongoing militant insurgency and conflict in the upper north-eastern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been brewing since 2017. However, it only gained the attention of the international community in mid-August 2020 when the Islamist extremist movement, Al Sunnah wa Jama’ah (or Ansar al-Sunna), captured the port town of Mocimboa da Praia in the north-eastern part of the country. This was not the first capturing of the town, as the insurgents – many of whom reportedly are originally from Mocimboa da Praia – earlier also briefly took control of the town in March 2020. At the same time, the town of Quissanga, approximately 180 km further south, then became the most targeted area in 2020, although the insurgents focused attacks on several other towns and districts. The insurgents further specifically targeted military and police forces, while the population in Cabo Delgado experienced horrific brutality in the form of killings, including beheadings, and other forms of violence that led to internal displacements and food shortages in the affected areas.[1] What followed were harsh security responses from the Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique (Mozambican Defence and Security Forces) (FDS),[2] similar to indiscriminate responses elsewhere in conflict zones in Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, and the Maghreb. The escalating attacks and heavy-handed responses have only heightened distrust among local residents and are alleged to have enhanced recruitment by the insurgents.[3] Currently, Cabo Delgado province is caught up in a security challenge with national, regional and international implications. The situation not only endangers the lives of tens of thousands of Mozambicans, but is also destabilising the upper north-eastern parts of Mozambique and certainly poses a threat to foreign direct investment pertaining to large-scale infrastructure, mining, exploration (especially natural gas), and other projects in Mozambique and the region.[4]
Topic:
Security, Insurgency, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

130. Ignoring the Roots of Mozambique’s War in a Push for Military Victory

Author:
ACCORD
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Nearly 2 900 people were killed[1] and most of the population displaced[2] by early June 2021 in a civil war that began in October 2017 in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s north-eastern province. From a single initial attack involving 30 men, insurgents now control most of four districts and parts of three others in a block roughly 70 km wide and 200 km from north to south. The second-largest natural gas field in Africa is being developed in the far north-east of Mozambique, with more than US$20 billion in investment predicted. The French company Total is developing the project, but insurgents reached the gates of the development zone in December 2020, and Total pulled out its staff and halted work on 1 January 2021. The Total Chief Executive Officer (CEO) told President Filipe Nyusi personally that Total would only return if Mozambique could guarantee security in a 25 km cordon around the gas project on the Afungi Peninsula. On 22 March 2021, Nyusi staked his personal reputation and that of the nation on a promise of security. Total agreed to resume construction. Two days later, insurgents occupied Palma, which is within the security cordon. Total withdrew its staff again and, on 26 April 2021, declared ‘force majeure’[3] on its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project. The company stated that it would only return if Mozambique ended the war.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Peace, Peacebuilding, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique