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1. Nation building in post-conflict settings: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Thomas Gautier, Daniela Horta-Saenz, and Gianluca Russo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do states rebuild nations after a major conflict? Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) have emerged as one of the most common interventions to achieve this objective. Despite their popularity, little is known about their efficacy to foster reconciliation and nation building. We fill this gap by studying the seminal TRC established in South Africa after the end of the Apartheid. To measure exposure to TRC across South African municipalities, we leverage quasi-random variation in media coverage of the TRC message. South African municipalities with higher historical exposure to TRC on media have lower levels of violence today. This effect is driven by improved nation building and higher trust towards post-Apartheid institutions. Exploiting daily variation in TRC hearings and mediatic exposure in the short run, we bolster our interpretation that our long-run results are forged in the years of TRC activity. The same evidence suggests that our results are driven by the coverage of TRC on media as opposed to generic media exposure.
Topic:
Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, Trust, Nation Building, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Migration out of poverty: The case of post-war migration in Mozambique

Author:
Maimuna Ibraimo and Eva-Maria Egger
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Internal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique’s most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses. We focus on the most important moves between regions, provinces, and rural and urban areas. Further, we document the characteristics of migrants to assess selection patterns. In the final step, we estimate the relationship between migration and multidimensional poverty by applying inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA). We find that migration in Mozambique was very high, especially between rural areas, after the war ended as people returned from displacement. Still, it is very low in the most recent period. Recently, migration has been the main contributor to the urbanization of the greater Maputo area (capital city). Migrants appear to be positively selected on education, and are, on average, less likely to be poor.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, Displacement, Rural, Economic Development, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

3. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

4. Don't Ask, Don't Tell: Approaches to Ethnicity in the Ethiopian and Rwandan Peacebuilding Processes

Author:
Madeline Moreno
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, Rwandan President Paul Kagame banned people from sharing their ethnic identity. While many Western leaders have praised Kagame for ushering in a new era of peace and prosperity after the genocide, activists have cautioned that Kagame’s approach has significant drawbacks for the civil liberties of Rwandans. After their own ethnic conflict, Ethiopia took an approach opposite to Rwanda’s, choosing to divide the country into ethnically federated states. Given that both sub-Saharan African states experienced ethnic conflict in the 1990s and developed starkly different approaches to conflict management, comparing the two makes for an interesting case study. This paper evaluates Rwanda’s and Ethiopia’s approaches to ethnic conflict management by examining how effective they were at curbing the resurgence of violence. In addition to direct violence, this paper will examine political rights and civil liberties to measure the mitigation of structural violence, or structural inequalities between groups. The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) database is used to measure the resurgence of direct violence, while Freedom House’s Freedom in the World reports on political rights and civil liberties are used to measure structural violence.
Topic:
Genocide, Ethnicity, Post-Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Structural Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Rwanda

5. Long-term reintegration challenges and opportunities for female ex-combatants: Insights from Aceh, Burundi, Colombia, Mindanao, Nepal and Uganda

Author:
Evelyn Pauls
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The policy brief analyses long-term reintegration challenges and opportunities for female ex-combatants. Drawing insights from working with female ex-combatants in Aceh, Burundi, Colombia, Mindanao, Nepal, and Uganda, it sheds light on the often neglected aspects of their experiences after conflicts end. It offers recommendations for policymakers, peacebuilders and many more on how to design sustainable post-conflict reintegration processes for female ex-combatants.
Topic:
Women, Armed Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Indonesia, Colombia, South America, Nepal, Burundi, Southeast Asia, Mindanao, and Aceh

6. Wartime Violence, Collective Grievances and Post-Conflict Protests

Author:
Roman Krtsch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The immediate aftermath of civil wars is a period prone to heightened contention: Political decisions about the distribution of aid or power, for example, can deepen social fault lines and in some instances even result in violent unrest. Yet despite its relevance, our knowledge on the drivers for individual participation in post-conflict contentious activism remains limited. Previous research has found particularly wartime experiences to affect political and social behaviour of individuals in the post-conflict period. Based on these findings, I argue that exposure to civil war violence increases the likelihood for individuals to participate in post-war protests. Moreover, I conjecture that this effect can be explained with the reinforcement of group-based grievances. Using survey data from the Afrobarometer collected shortly after the end of the Ugandan civil war in 2008, I find support for the argument: Results from linear probability models show a consistent and robust relationship between county-level war violence and the likelihood to participate in protests. An additional analysis with a novel measure of group-level exposure and a causal mediation analysis furthermore corroborate the assumed mechanism.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, Violence, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

7. Can there be benefits from competing legal regimes?: the impact of legal pluralism in post-conflict Sierra Leone

Author:
Pedro Naso, Erwin Bulte, and Tim Swanson
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We investigate the impact of competition between legal regimes on the number of authoritative acts and amount of fines occurring in rural Sierra Leone. We model state and traditional legal systems as competing authorities with a potential for overlap in their jurisdictions. We are interested in the sign and magnitude of the legal pluralism externality in this region of overlapping authority. We then test the model and estimate the size of the externality coefficient in the context of post-conflict Sierra Leone. Our results show a negative externality between regimes for civil disputes—that is, an increase in the cost of apprehending a person. We also show that there is a reduction in the amount of fines per dispute collected in this shared space. Overall, this indicates that a potential benefit to the local people from multiple competing regimes is a reduction in expected authoritative expropriation.
Topic:
Civil War, Post-Conflict, and Legal Dualism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

8. The civilianisation of ex-combatants of the Niger Delta

Author:
Hakeem Onapajo and Abdul-Wasi Babatunde Moshood
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The focus of research on the Niger Delta has shifted considerably from the large-scale violence affecting the region, to the effects of the post-amnesty era which followed the introduction of the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP) by the government in 2009. Unfortunately, the emergent literature on the amnesty topic has been pessimistic in its reductionist assessment of the whole programme as a mere ‘cash-for-peace’ or ‘settlement’ exercise which can only lead to a fragile peace in the Niger Delta. This paper, being a product of an in-depth investigation of the programme through direct observations and field interviews, presents a different perspective. The paper demonstrates the capacity of the amnesty programme to facilitate and sustain peace in the troubled Niger Delta, with specific focus on the reintegration aspect of the PAP. The paper shows that the reintegration programme has recorded some positive progress which has not been well captured in the literature. Indeed, these achievements are a clear sign of the potential of the PAP to bring about a lasting peace in the Niger Delta. Furthermore, the paper analyses the current challenges bedevilling the programme. Following the highlighted challenges, the paper offers recommendations on how the reintegration programme can be properly utilised to sustain peace in the Niger Delta.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civilians, Amnesty, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

9. The International Criminal Court and conflict transformation in Uganda: Views from the field

Author:
Linus Nnabuike Malu
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The International Criminal Court (ICC) commenced investigation of the armed conflict in Uganda in 2004. In 2005 it issued arrest warrants for five leaders of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). This article examines how the court’s involvement in the situation has impacted on conflict transformation in Uganda after ten years of judicial work. It also addresses the problem of assessing the impact of law on conflict through the use of an analytical framework that is based on four variables: deterrence, victims’ rights, reconciliation, and accountability to the law. Relying on this framework, and on a report of a field research project in Uganda, it argues that the ICC’s intervention has had multiple impacts on the situation in Uganda, and that despite some arguments to the contrary, the ICC does promote conflict transformation through deterrence, promotion of accountability to the law and promotion of victims’ rights.
Topic:
Religion, Non State Actors, Conflict, International Criminal Court (ICC), Post-Conflict, and Lord's Resistance Army
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

10. Informal peacebuilding initiatives in Africa: Removing the table

Author:
Tendai Mtukwa
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article interrogates the practicability and efficacy of arts-based methods for peacebuilding as opposed to the formal negotiating table within African grassroots communities. It problematises the application of western liberal peace models at grassroots level. The article reviews and locates itself within the broader discourse of alternative or informal peacebuilding. Using the case study of Rwandan post-genocide dramatic reconstructions, the article illustrates specific participatory theatre techniques extracted from the applied theatre field and how these can be employed for peacebuilding at grassroots level. The article argues for a safe, aesthetic space, created by theatre as critical to peacebuilding activities. To give a rounded overview, the article finally reflects on potential disadvantages and controversies of using participatory theatre for peacebuilding and concludes that creative arts-based methods offer practical, inclusive, inexpensive space conducive for organic peacebuilding at grassroots level.
Topic:
Genocide, Peace, Theater, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda