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111. Darfur's Fragile Peace Agreement

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) signed under African Union (AU) auspices on 5 May 2006 between Sudan's government and the faction of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army led by Minni Arkou Minawi (SLA/MM) is a first step toward ending the violence but strong, coordinated action is needed if it is to take hold. The document has serious flaws, and two of the three rebel delegations did not accept it. Fighting between rebel and government forces is down somewhat but violence is worse in some areas due to clashes between SLA factions, banditry, and inter-tribal feuds, while the Chad border remains volatile. If the DPA is not to leave Darfur more fragmented and conflict-prone than before, the international community must rapidly take practical measures to shore up its security provisions, improve prospects for the displaced to return home, bring in the holdouts and rapidly deploy a robust UN peacekeeping force with Chapter VII authority.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Darfur

112. The Rise and Fall of Mass Taxation in Uganda

Author:
Ole Therkildsen
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Although Graduated Personal Tax (GPT) paid to local government in Uganda has caused numerous tax riots throughout the past century, it is only since the mid-1990s that competitive presidential elections have provided people with an effective way to express their dissatisfaction with it. Thus, greater political competition was instrumental in almost dismantling the GPT in 2001 and abolished in 2005. Positive governance effects will follow from this. As shown by the comparison of taxpayer rights and enforcement practices (in particular the use of imprisonment) for GPT and income tax paid to central government, the former has been collected with the use of much more coercion than the latter. Coercive approaches to taxation become more difficult to sustain with greater political competition.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

113. The Role of Militias and Other Paramilitaries in African (un)Civil Wars

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Recent violent conflicts in Africa have seen extensive use of very irregular armed forces by governments. Examples include the use of Kamajors in Sierra Leone, Janjaweed and other militias in Sudan and Interahamwe militias in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The paper, originally written for a seminar on Threatened Trust. The transformation of the state and fading civil security at the Centre for African Studies, Institute for Social Anthropology, University of Basel, Basel, 9-10 January 2006, analyses the historical background of such phenomena, the strategic benefits and drawbacks of the resort to such forces, the consequences for the conduct of armed conflicts and the implications thereof for the civilian populations. Finally, it points to a number of complications caused by the presence of such forces for peace settlements and post-conflict peacebuilding, including DDR (disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration) of former combatants and security sector reform.
Topic:
Civil War and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

114. Political Islam in Kenya

Author:
Bjørn Moller
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In the paper, commissioned by Hussein Solomon and Akeem Fadare for their forthcoming anthology on Political Islam and the State in Africa, the focus placed on the political role of Islam in Kenyan politics. Prevalent fears (e.g. in the United States) of the country becoming a hotbed of Islamist radicalism and terrorism are critically examined against the background of the various categories of Kenyan Muslims, their general position in Kenyan society, their grievances, organisation and occasional role in various conflicts. This is all set against a background of Kenyan history, where the role of other religions (Christianity and traditional religion) is also highlighted. The paper concludes with some tentative recommendations for how the (mainly latent) conflicts might be defused.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and United States

115. The United Nations and Western Sahara: A Never-ending Affair

Author:
Anna Theofilopoulou
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This study examines the efforts of the United Nations (UN) to resolve the dispute over Western Sahara from August 1988, when Secretary-general Pérez de Cuellar submitted the settlement proposals to the two parties—the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario—until June 2004, when James A. Baker III, the secretary-general's personal envoy on Western Sahara, resigned. The settlement proposals were to lead to the holding of a referendum on self-determination for the people of Western Sahara, offering a choice between integration with Morocco or independence. A crucial element in the implementation of the plan was the identification of voters for the referendum, which both sides considered the key to producing an outcome in their favor. The Polisario had a restricted view, expecting the 1974 Spanish census of the territory to be the framework for the identification, while Morocco took an expansive view by trying to include tens of thousands of applicants of Saharan origin now living in Morocco. Both parties found reasons to interrupt the identification process. Throughout the process, the UN tried to break the impasses created by the parties through technical solutions that addressed the problem at hand without addressing the underlying political problem, which was the determination by both sides to win the referendum. After six years of trying to move forward the identification process, Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked James Baker to become his personal envoy in order to steer the parties toward a political solution and away from the “winner-take-all” approach of the referendum. However, because both parties insisted that they wanted to proceed with the plan, Baker helped them negotiate the Houston Agreements, which allowed for the completion of the identification process. In September 2000, seeing that the referendum was not likely to work in its favor, Morocco offered to discuss a political solution aiming at autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. The Polisario, which until the conclusion of the identification had been interested in meeting directly with Morocco, now believed that it could win the referendum and therefore said it would talk only about the settlement plan. After two more years of trying to get the parties to agree to a political solution, Baker informed the Security Council that a consensual approach would not work and requested that the Council ask the parties to choose one of four options, none of which would require the parties' consent, to resolve the conflict. The Security Council was unable to agree on any of the four options and asked Baker to prepare another political proposal that would include self-determination for the people of Western Sahara. Baker's final attempt was the Peace Plan for Self- Determination of the People of Western Sahara, which provided for a period of autonomy followed by a referendum on self-determination. Morocco rejected the plan and refused to accept a referendum in which the independence of Western Sahara would even appear as an option. The Security Council, while having expressed support for Baker's efforts in its resolutions, proved unwilling to ask the parties to make the difficult decisions required to solve the conflict. When Morocco rejected the peace plan, the Council, despite having unanimously supported it, did nothing. The study concludes that Western Sahara will remain on the UN agenda for many years to come and offers a number of lessons learned from this failed mediation effort.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

116. The Dangers of Political Exclusion: Egypt's Islamist Problem

Author:
Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
MUCH HAS BEEN WRITTEN in recent years about Islam and politics, Islam and democracy, and Islam's compatibility with the requirements of modernity. These debates cannot be settled conclusively by referring to the holy texts, because such texts lend themselves to conflicting interpretations. This paper, therefore, takes a different approach. Using Egypt as a case study, it focuses not on the relationship between Islam and politics in the abstract, but on the relationship between religious authority and political authority as it unfolds in practice. It outlines the motivations, interests, strategies, and agendas of the institutions that represent and speak for Islam and those that represent the state and act in its name. The interaction between them is a mix of complicity and rivalry that has profound effects on Egyptian society, the Egyptian state, and its relationship with the outside world.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

117. Africa: The Development Challenges of the 21st Century

Author:
Callisto Madavo
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
An Introduction from Africa Program Director Howard Wolpe: The following remarks were delivered by Callisto Madavo, former Vice President for Africa at the World Bank, at a Congressional Staff Forum on Africa Retreat, convened by the Woodrow Wilson International Center March 8-10, 2005. A noted Zimbabwean economist, Callisto Madavo served as World Bank Vice President 1996-2005. Over the course of a distinguished 36-year career at the Bank, which included postings in the Middle East, East Asia and Africa, Madavo witnessed both the successes and failures of poverty reduction strategies in multiple settings. Now, with the world's attention being increasingly drawn to the challenge of poverty reduction in Africa, Madavo offers an important perspective on the context and history of the economic challenges facing the continent.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

118. Resolving the Three-Headed War from Hell

Author:
John Prendergast
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
An Introduction from Program Director Howard Wolpe: John Prendergast, Special Advisor to the President of the International Crisis Group, is one of the country's leading Africanists, with most of his twenty-year career focused on conflict resolution in Africa, American policy toward the region, human rights promotion, and humanitarian action. During the Clinton Administration, Mr. Prendergast served as a Special Advisor, Department of State and a Director for African Affairs at the National Security Council. He has worked for a variety of nongovernmental organizations and think tanks in Africa and the United States, and has authored or co-authored seven books on Africa.This paper is based on an address delivered at a February 7, 2005 program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, cosponsored by the Center's Africa Program and Conflict Prevention Project. Mr. Prendergast wishes to acknowledge the contributions to this paper of Colin Thomas-Jensen of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

119. The EU/AU Partnership in Darfur: Not Yet a Winning Combination

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The African Union's (AU) intervention in Sudan's Darfur region tests the effectiveness of its own peace and security structures and those of the European Union (EU). The AU has taken the lead both in the political negotiations between the government and the rebels and in deploying a peace-monitoring mission, the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS). It has had to rely on outside support for AMIS, with nearly two thirds of its funding coming from the EU's African Peace Facility. The results are mixed. If Darfur is to have stability anytime soon, and the two organisations are to fulfil their ambitions to be major players in crisis prevention and crisis resolution, AMIS must get more troops and a more proactive, civilian-protection mandate, and the EU needs to find ways to go beyond the present limitations of the African Peace Facility in providing assistance.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sudan

120. Constitution Writing and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Jennifer Widner
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Over 1975-2003 nearly 200 new constitutions were drawn up in countries at risk of conflict, as part of peace processes and the adoption of multiparty political systems. The process of writing constitutions is considered to be very important to the chances of sustaining peace, and The Commonwealth and the US Institute for Peace have developed good practice guidelines in this area. These emphasize consultation, openness to diverse points of view and representative ratification procedures. But assessing the impact of constitution-writing processes on violence is methodologically difficult, since there are many channels of influence in the relationship. This paper reports on preliminary findings from an ongoing research project into the effects of processes in constitution-writing. Regression analysis is used to control for important contextual features such as differences in income levels and ethnic diversity across countries. A key finding is that differences in the degree of participation in the drafting of constitutions has no major effect on post-ratification levels of violence in some parts of the world, such as Europe, but does make a difference in Africa, the Americas, and the Pacific together.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Europe