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111. Monetary Policy in the CFA Zone: Country-level Credit Policy

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines whether the BCEAO has made use of the various policy instruments at its disposal for steering credit in the individual CFA zone member countries to complement interest rate policy at the zone level. We estimate whether private sector credit has responded systematically to different monetary policy variables using iterated 3-stage least squares regressions for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal and Togo. If we constrain the coefficient estimates there is some support for the hypothesis that the BCEAO has contracted private sector credit in response to a higher inflation differential with France. However, there seems to be no policy rule to restrict private sector credit in response to increasing government borrowing from the central bank or increased foreign borrowing. If the coefficient estimates are unconstrained, there does not appear to be any systematic policy to control credit expansion at the domestic level.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and France

112. The Costs and Benefits Analysis of CFA Membership: The Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime for the CFA Countries Zone

Author:
Mireille Linjouom
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper determines an analytical framework defining the choice of an optimal exchange rate regime for a typical CFA country. The policymakers behave strategically to decide to adopt alternative exchange rate regime by minimizing their loss function under specific constraints like economic characteristics and political consideration. One concludes a CFA economy with less inflationary propensity and greater external shocks volatility will tend to select a flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, the model suggests that a CFA country with a more unstable political system and a higher propensity to apply inflationary policies will prefer a flexible arrangement than a fixed one.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

113. An Aggregate View of Macroeconomic Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Study Using Innovation Accounting

Author:
Simeon Coleman
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. Based on the Blanchard-Quah methodology, we identify shocks to the changes in real exchange rate and output using a structural VAR (SVAR) model for these small open economies. Our finding that the real exchange rate innovations in the CFA franc zones are largely independent of domestic variables suggests that external influence is more important in the CFA zones. There is also some evidence that money demand shocks are more significant in the non-CFA franc zone countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

114. Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty: Time-series and Cross-country Evidence from the CFA-zone Countries of sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Michael Bleaney and Akira Nishiyama
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The causes of the slow growth of CFA countries are investigated. There is little difference in this respect between the CFA and other sub-Saharan African countries. Since 1970, GDP growth in the CFA countries has shown no significant trend but one or two medium-term fluctuations (positive in 1979-83 and negative in 1989-93). Internationally, the income share of the poorest 20 per cent of the population of any country has improved most in poor countries, and there is no evidence that this does not apply to CFA countries also.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

115. How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Author:
David Fielding
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) has a history of monetary stability and low inflation. Nevertheless, there is substantial variation in relative prices within some UEMOA countries, in particular in the price of food relative to other elements of the retail price index (IHPC). Using monthly time-series data for cities within the region, we analyze the impact of changes in monetary policy instruments on the relative prices of components of the IHPC. We are then able to explore how the burden of monetary policy innovations is likely to be shared between the rich and poor.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

116. Access to ARV Treatment - Aid, Trade and Governance in Uganda

Author:
Lisa Ann Richey and Stine Jessen Haakonsson
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Access to antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) for AIDS treatment creates a field binding local and global governance. Local modalities of AIDS treatment are governed by the context of global trade through the implementation of patents on medicines in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and within the context of global aid through development assistance. While industrialized countries, on the one hand, set aside donations to fight AIDS in developing countries, on the other hand, the same countries use the WTO to prevent developing countries from accessing cheap medicines. Uganda's success in reducing HIV prevalence is unique among African states, and it is considered the most promising candidate for effectively "scaling up" ARV treatment on the basis of its history of dealing with the pandemic. Yet, despite the many interventions addressing HIV/AIDS and dramatic price reductions of ARVs, only a minority of the infected population is currently receiving treatment, and promises of universal coverage for all who need it seem unrealistic. Our paper examines how the disconnect between international and national priorities on the one hand, and between aid and trade on the other, are currently affecting access to ARVs in Uganda. In spite of the political discourse of equality in treatment, the realities of funding suggest the difficult choices will be made from the level of policy to that of individual. Thus, global governance of trade and of aid will both shape and rely on individuals in charge of "implementation" which must be examined outside the sanitizing context of development discourse. We introduce our use of governance in this paper, and then discuss the global governance of aid to AIDS and global governance of trade and AIDS. The second half of the paper examines the Ugandan case study beginning with a political background and examination of aids policy, followed by the history of ARV provision and advocacy for ARVs, a discussion of the national health system and then aid initiatives and trade of ARVs in Uganda. Finally, we draw preliminary conclusions from our case on the conflicts between global and local governance of trade and aid to AIDS.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

117. Policy Reform in the Mexican Telecommunications Sector

Author:
Miguel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
In June 1990, Presidents George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the U.S. Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Canada, Central America, and Mexico

118. Take the State Back Out? Comparing French Responses to Globalization in Agriculture and Shipping

Author:
Mark Aspinwall and Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How autonomous is a state in today's highly interdependent international economy to pursue policies that diverge widely from the international norm? Does the degree of autonomy vary for different domestic sectors? We adapt and apply Benjamin Cohen's unholy trinity model (1993), to a comparative assessment of how France responded to globalization over agriculture and shipping, focusing on three dimensions—investment, transaction costs, and government policy responses. Although France is reputed to possess a strong state machinery (Katzenstein, 1987; Wilson, 1987; Skocpol, 1985), our analysis raises qualifications. On the one hand, regardless of government policy intentions, we find irreversible forms of disinvestment in both sectors, though different in nature—geographic for shipping, and functional for agriculture; on the other, we also find continued dependence upon the state—for aid in shipping and resisting free trade in agriculture. We further find that, although internal and endogenous, as well as external and exogenous, factors influence policy-making, the nature of these factors are different for the two sectors. We conclude by drawing implications of our findings for state-society relations and European integration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

119. The Institutional Setting of the NAFTA Debate in the United States

Author:
Miguel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to analyze the institutional setting of the NAFTA debate in the United States, focusing on the interaction between the Presidency and Congress, in the formulation of foreign commercial policy. A series of arrangements have tamed confrontation between the Executive and Legislative powers, reconciling their institutional biases. THese arrangements channel and contain domestic demands for protectionism, favoring international trade liberalization negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Asia, and North America

120. Foreign Policy Strategies in a Globalized World: The Case of Mexico

Author:
Guadalupe González
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This document analyses the impact of the end of the Cold-War, and the processes of economic and political liberalization on Mexico's foreign policy. The first section identifies the consequences for the so-called intermediate countries of the three most important post-Cold War trends: the emergence of hybrid structure of global power, the wave of globalization, and the growing importance of international institutions. The second section evaluates the explanatory value of three systemic approaches to the study of the foreign policy of intermediate states: systemic-structuralism, middle powers, and pivotal states. In the third section, I evaluate Kahler's alternative approach centered on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables, in particular on the foreign policy consequences of economic liberalization and democratization such as the adoption of external cooperative strategies and the deepening to engagement with international institution. The fourth section describes the main changes that have taken place in Mexico's foreign policy during the 1990s: pragmatism, primacy of economics, closer alignment with the United States, segmented multilateralism, fragmentation of the decision-making process, and new instruments. There are two arguments in this document. First, in contrast to other intermediate liberalizing countries, Mexico's efforts to adapt to the new post-Cold War international system, followed an uneven and partial pattern. While Mexican political leaders pursued the full integration of the country to the international economy, in the security realm they maintain a less than open policy based on the defense of the traditional notion of sovereignty. Mexico's partial adaptation is explained by the different pace of the raid economic reform on the one hand, and the gradual and slow opening of the post-revolutionary political regime, on the other. Second, as Kahler's model predicted, Mexico adopted strategies of cooperation and institutional engagement in order to solve credibility roblems. The need to enhance the credibility of the programs of economic reform pushed the Mexican government to engage actively with economic international institutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, North America, and Mexico