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21. Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expires in a half-year; and emboldened troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to deal the weakened (though still potent) extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab further defeats. This confluence of factors presents the best chance in years for peace and stability in the south and centre of the country. To achieve that, however, requires regional and wider international unity of purpose and an agreement on basic principles; otherwise spoilers could undermine all peacebuilding efforts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

22. Boko Haram's Evolving Threat

Author:
J. Peter Pham
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Nigerian militant Islamist group Boko Haram has grown increasingly virulent since late 2010, reflecting a major transformation in its capacity, tactics, and ideology. There are indications of expanding links between Boko Haram and international Islamist terrorist organizations. Support for Boko Haram among some of northern Nigeria's marginalized Muslim communities suggests that security actions alone will be insufficient to quell the instability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

23. Building Africa's Airlift Capacity: A Strategy for Enhancing Military Effectiveness

Author:
Birame Diop, David M. Peyton, and Gene McConville
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In April 2012, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) declared its readiness to deploy 3,000 troops to northern Mali in response to seizures of territory by Tuareg separatists and Islamist militias. Left unanswered was the question of how ECOWAS would transport these troops and their equipment to Mali. Only airlift resources would be able to deliver personnel and heavy equipment into the area of operations (AO) in a timely manner, provide operational mobility within the AO against dispersed and heavily armed irregular forces, monitor a geographic area larger than France, and sustain operations for months or years. The inability to respond to these challenges to territorial control, in turn, further emboldens such separatists and other spoilers.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and France

24. Optimizing Africa's Security Force Structures

Author:
Helmoed Heitman
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
There is much happening in Africa that is positive— economically, socially, and politically. But a large share of the continent remains fragile, putting those gains at risk. The most pressing challenges facing many African states are paramilitary threats— threats that are beyond the ability of most police forces and frequently transcend national borders. Organized crime, rural banditry, piracy, local warlords, guerrillas, ethnic and religious violence, and extremist Islamist groups are just a few of an array of such threats.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, Poverty, Insurgency, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa

25. Return to War in Sudan's Nuba Mountains

Author:
Julie Flint
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The response to the renewed war in Sudan's Nuba Mountains has been driven largely by a human rights and humanitarian crisis. The crisis will continue indefinitely without a political agreement that acknowledges the Nuba rebellion is self-sustaining and reflects a wider malaise within the new Republic of Sudan. With Sudan facing financial collapse, economic normalization must be part of negotiations with Khartoum to end the war in the Nuba Mountains and promote democratization throughout Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Human Rights, War, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

26. Countering the Lord's Resistance Army in Central Africa

Author:
Andre Le Sage
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) is one of Africa's most brutal militia forces. It has plagued Central Africa, particularly northern Uganda, for over two decades. The group's tactics provide textbook examples of war crimes and crimes against humanity. When attacking civilians, the LRA instills fear by selecting random individuals for brutal executions. Children are abducted to serve as porters, sex slaves, and new militia. In order to indoctrinate child soldiers, young abductees are routinely forced to kill their own family members and other children, or be murdered themselves. Anyone caught trying to escape from the LRA is summarily executed. By contrast with other African rebel groups, which occasionally adopt such brutal tactics, the LRA has conducted such atrocities on a systematic and prolonged basis.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

27. The Lord's Resistance Army: End Game?

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) remains a deadly threat to civilians in three Central African states. After a ceasefire and negotiations for peaceful settlement of the generation-long insurgency broke down in 2008, Uganda's army botched an initial assault. In three years since, half-hearted operations have failed to stop the small, brutally effective band from killing more than 2,400 civilians, abducting more than 3,400 and causing 440,000 to flee. In 2010 President Museveni withdrew about half the troops to pursue more politically rewarding goals. Congolese mistrust hampers current operations, and an African Union (AU) initiative has been slow to start. While there is at last a chance to defeat the LRA, both robust military action and vigorous diplomacy is required. Uganda needs to take advantage of new, perhaps brief, U.S. engagement by reinvigorating the military offensive; Washington needs to press regional leaders for cooperation; above all, the AU must act promptly to live up to its responsibilities as guarantor of continental security. When it does, Uganda and the U.S. should fold their efforts into the AU initiative.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Religion, Torture, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and United States

28. The Lord's Resistance Army and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
This brief seeks to clarify how the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) applies to the threat posed by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and examines the measures that should be taken by regional governments, the African Union (AU), donor governments and the UN Security Council in order to protect populations under threat.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

29. Background Briefing: R2P After Libya and Cote d'Ivoire

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P, like all norms, is bound to see its capacity to deliver on its intended goals tested by real experience. Ever since R2P was endorsed by member states at the United Nations General Assembly in 2005, a number of cases have helped define the boundaries of its application. Well before Libya, R2P had already made a discrete difference in a number of cases: from the most cited example of the political and diplomatic response to the outbreak of ethnic violence in Kenya in early 2008; to the patchy response to signs of ethnic cleansing in Kyrgyzstan in the summer of 2010; to the more forceful regional and international efforts in Guinea at the end of that year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, United Nations, and Guinea

30. Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif's weak leadership. So far, every effort to make the administration modestly functional has come unstuck. The new leaner cabinet looks impressive on paper but, given divisive politics and the short timeframe, is unlikely to deliver significant progress on key transitional objectives, such as stabilising Somalia and delivering a permanent constitution before August 2011, when the TFG's official mandate ends. Although the Transitional Federal Parliament unilaterally has awarded itself a further three-year-extension, urgent attention needs to be given to the government's structural flaws that stymie peacebuilding in central and south Somalia. If the TFG does not make serious progress on correcting its deficiencies by August, the international community should concentrate its support on the more effective local entities, until a more appropriate and effective national government is negotiated.
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa