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1. An Iron Curtain in the Sahel

Author:
Kyle Robertson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects. Weak, corrupt governments with limited resources and active insurgencies set the conditions for military Juntas to seize power in Burkina Faso, Mali, and, most recently, Niger. The region’s militaries blamed persistent violence on civilian leaders and foreign forces–particularly France–that they viewed as inept. Additionally, the perceived interference of the United States and the failure of its counterterrorism policy to address local grievances drove recruitment for insurgent groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel. Russian disinformation–which, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, accounts for roughly half of disinformation campaigns in West Africa–compounded these failures by targeting the United States and using themes of anti-imperialism and neocolonialism to inflame anti-western sentiment. Once the coups occurred, the United States was required by law to cut off security assistance, ending more than a decade of investment in the Sahel’s security infrastructure and giving Russia an opening in the region.
Topic:
Corruption, Insurgency, Islamic State, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

2. Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Few countries are more exposed to the ill effects of climate change than Somalia. Insecurity compounds the problem, with the Al-Shabaab insurgency exploiting drought conditions as a means of social control. Mogadishu needs help in dealing with the nexus of armed conflict and weather shocks.
Topic:
Climate Change, Insurgency, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

3. CTC Sentinel: March 2023 Issue

Author:
Emilia Columbo, Kristina Hummel, Madeleine Biscaichipy, Alexander Ritzmann, and Francesco Marone
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This month’s feature article focuses on the challenge posed by the evolving Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique. Emilia Columbo writes: “The deployment of regional military and police forces to Cabo Delgado Province in northern Mozambique to assist the Mozambican government against what was then a growing jihadi insurgency nearly two years ago has introduced new dynamics into the conflict, expanding the insurgency’s presence in the region and increasing the importance of the information space as each side works to persuade its constituencies that the conflict is proceeding in its favor.” She assesses that the sustainability of security gains along the coast “will depend largely on the government’s willingness to develop and implement a more balanced counterterrorism approach that addresses the underlying grievances driving this conflict.” Our interview is with Jessica White and Galen Lamphere-Englund, co-conveners of the Extremism and Gaming Research Network, which started a little over two years ago as a practitioner- and researcher-led initiative to try and unpack concerning developments in the online space. Alexander Ritzmann writes that “the alleged plot against the German government by the Reichsbürger group Patriotic Union, whose key members were arrested on December 7, 2022, is best understood as a thwarted, possible early-stage terrorist plot, rather than a preempted imminent violent coup attempt. The Reichsbürger, who are comprised of different groups and networks, claim that the German state of today does not legally exist. Many Reichsbürger ascribe to a version of the anti-Semitic ‘New World Order,’ others believe in ‘QAnon.’” He notes that “although the vast majority of Reichsbürger are neither considered violent nor right-wing extremists by German security agencies, the threat posed by a minority of violent and extremist Reichsbürger persists, with German security agencies continuing to thwart alleged violent activity linked to different Reichsbürger groups.” Francesco Marone examines how an ongoing hunger strike by the imprisoned insurrectionary anarchist terrorist Alfredo Cospito has amplified the threat in and beyond Italy posed by “a transnational extremist tendency that promotes ‘self-organized’ illegal and violent actions, even against people.”
Topic:
Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Italy, and Mozambique

4. Actor Profiles: Islamic State Mozambique (ISM)

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The group now known as Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) emerged as an armed group in October 2017, known locally both as al-Sunna wal-Jamma (ASWJ) for its ideological underpinnings and al-Shabaab for its extensive use of violence. Despite its rapid growth up to 2021, it has been one of the Islamic State’s (IS) most opaque affiliates. ISM was first recognized as a distinct IS province in May 2022, having previously been under the broader Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) organization from as early as 2018. The origins of ISM lie in East African Salafi-jihadist networks that reached into northern Mozambique as early as 2007.1 This profile examines the group’s origins and its development over the past decade. It uses ACLED and other data to assess the group’s objectives and consider its future prospects.
Topic:
Insurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Ideology, and Islamic State Mozambique (ISM)
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

5. Regionalism and the Fight Against Terrorism in Southern Africa: Reflections on Cabo Delgado in Mozambique

Author:
Alexander Madanha Rusero and Kudzai Arnold Maisiri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Post-independence Africa has often depicted Southern Africa as a formidable region spared by the calamities of Islamic insurgencies and terrorism. However, unfolding events in the last five years have demonstrated the limitation of SADC to terrorism exceptionalism. A combination of relatively weak states perpetuating poor regionalism, ethnic and religious diversity, poverty and the existence of the ‘ungoverned space’ are possible explanations in making the region a suitable habitat for insurgency groups. The recent invasion by terrorists of Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been a critical cause for concern for the stability of the region. The military intervention of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Rwanda presents an opportunity for academics to explore regional prospects for peace and security. This paper uses insights gained from a qualitative study on terrorism, counterterrorism and regionalism to investigate the concept of regional security cooperation in the SADC region and the authenticity of institutional responses in Northern Mozambique. The study concludes that the launch of the SAMIM, despite several obstacles, represents a step in the right direction. More so, creating durable security institutions is the starting point towards realising meaningful regional security cooperation, which guarantees feasible regional economic integration.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

6. Containing Militancy in West Africa’s Park W

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Insurgents have established bases in an important nature reserve spanning parts of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. They pose a growing danger to local ecosystems and people living around the park. The three countries need to collaborate more closely to keep the threat at bay.
Topic:
Environment, Regional Cooperation, Insurgency, Natural Resources, Biodiversity, Countering Violent Extremism, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, Sahel, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Benin

7. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:
Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

8. January 2022 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:
Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

9. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
Topic:
Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

10. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:
Leif Brottem
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin