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1. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

2. Fact Sheet: Crisis in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Violence is escalating in Amhara region, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency Nearly 30 clashes between government forces and Fano militias were recorded in Amhara last week, with most concentrated in North Wello and West Gojam zones, though fighting has been spread throughout the region. This marks an almost eightfold increase in armed clashes in the region relative to the weekly average since the start of the crisis in April. While Amhara was among the least volatile regions in the country prior to the start of the northern Ethiopia conflict in 2021, it is now one of the most unstable. Persistent insecurity in Amhara poses a significant threat to the federal government, the Abiy administration, and Ethiopia’s stability at large.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Amhara

3. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

4. Kleptocracy versus Democracy

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi and Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Throughout Sudan’s history, key security actors have shaped the distribution of power and wealth, effectively consolidating both in the hands of their loyal supporters and business partners. The resulting political economy has outlived the country’s long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted by a popular uprising in 2019, it has obstructed the country’s ensuing transition to democracy, and it continues to undermine present attempts at ending the war. While individuals, alliances and businesses change over time, the mechanisms deployed by these networks to retain and expand power have remained the same. They have created an ecosystem that impedes rather than enabling competition and growth, holding Sudan’s private sector hostage to their own power ambitions. Yet, amidst this history of political instability and repression, a whole parallel, largely informal, economy has existed, and sometimes thrived. Businesses of different sizes and from various sectors have shown resilience and have nevertheless found different ways of operating, creating employment and offering much-needed products and services, even in times of war. While the majority of the pre-war Sudanese private sector was not independent, but rather depended on – and in some cases benefited from – the predatory kleptocracy, a small segment of business owners lacked political connections or decided not to leverage them. During the 2019-2021 transition these entrepreneurs doubled down their efforts, and showed perseverance and innovation to survive and cope. This segment of Sudan’s private sector, rather than the country’s security actors and affiliated businesses, will have to play a critical role in Sudan’s reconstruction after the war. The war that continues to rage in Sudan has a disastrous impact on the economy, and the financial resources required for reconstruction will be immense. To move towards the end of the war and to prepare for reconstruction, this report advocates a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, the predatory securitybusiness networks that have underpinned Sudan’s history of conflict and that sustain the present war must be systematically dismantled, so that they cannot fuel the current war or hijack any post-war transition. On the other hand, and simultaneously, the beleaguered private sector that did not benefit from support under al-Bashir’s rule, needs to be empowered, so that it can survive the war and play a role in the reconstruction. Dismantling Sudan’s security-business networks and empowering its productive private sector are complementary efforts. Together, these efforts can help to break the cycle of inequality and violence, and support Sudan’s transition towards democracy and civilian rule.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Democracy, Kleptocracy, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

5. Sahel: 10 Years of Instability. Local, Regional and International Dynamics

Author:
Giovanni Carbone and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Ten years after the start of the Malian crisis, political and security instability in the Sahel have changed in scale and nature, and spilled over across national frontiers. The border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has become the new epicentre of insecurity. The comeback of military actors on the political scene, and the support provided by large parts of the population to post-coup military juntas is evidence of poor governance and a severe deterioration in the legitimacy of elected authorities. In this complex scenario, the initiatives of external partners affect regional balances, making the Sahel a major theatre for power competition. How did the crisis evolve over the past decade? What are the main drivers behind local, regional and international dynamics? What prospects for regional stability?
Topic:
Security, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

6. Immediate Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
South Sudanese civilians face a risk of mass atrocities from government forces, armed militia, and opposition groups as political instability at the national level increases. Impunity has fostered a culture in which the commission of mass atrocity crimes is normalized. In the leadup to the 2023 elections, President Salva Kiir could lead violent crackdowns on organized gatherings in an effort to silence opposition. If government and opposition forces continue to unify into a single army, infighting could spill over into violence against and among civilian groups.
Topic:
Impunity, Violence, Atrocities, Opposition, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

7. Coups D’état in the Covid-19 Era

Author:
John J. Chin
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In the years preceding the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, many observers were cheerily optimistic about the decline of coups d’état in the twenty-first century. As late as early 2019, for example, Axios declared confidently that coups—or illegal seizures of power by military or government actors—“are becoming a thing of the past.”1 In early 2022, the same journalist and outlet reported that “coups are making a comeback.”2 Between those three years (January 2019–January 2022), 13 coup attempts occurred, 10 of which succeeded. By contrast, in the three years beforehand (January 2016–January 2019), there had only been five coup attempts, two of which were successful. In other words, the number of coup attempts more than doubled, and the number of successful coups quintupled, according to my updated Colpus dataset of coup types.3 What accounts for the apparent coup comeback? Is the pandemic itself to blame? In this article, I draw on my newly updated Colpus dataset of coup types, documenting all coups through February 2022, to survey the history of recent coups. I first show that after several decades in decline, coups started to make their comeback before the pandemic. I then survey the potential causes of “covid coups” and the factors for why recent coups have been overwhelmingly concentrated in Africa. I conclude by reflecting on the legacy of “covid coups.”
Topic:
Coup, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

8. Looking Ahead: Trends and Solutions for 2022

Author:
Sarah Cliffe
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
It would be good to write a very optimistic piece at the dawn of 2022—and indeed we do try to focus in this piece not just on trends but on solutions. Yet, overall, it is impossible to avoid “telling it as it is”—internationally and for multilateral action, the year has not had an auspicious start. Omicron is sweeping through communities worldwide, with many hospital systems warning of the risk of being overwhelmed. The political instability of which we and many others have long warned, driven by economic and governance links, is coming to pass. Kazakhstan is the most recent example, but this also covers the quintupling of coups in Africa in 2021, and heightened polarization in many Western, Asian, and Latin American electoral processes.
Topic:
Governance, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, Instability, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Kazakhstan, Latin America, and West Asia

9. Political Reforms and Implications for Democracy and Instability in West Africa: The Way Forward for ECOWAS and Member States

Author:
Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
With the restoration of democratic order in the Gambia in 2017, the West African region regained the attention of the world with renewed hope and optimism for democratic consolidation in Africa. The Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) rejection of the undemocratic retention of power by former President Yahya Jammeh and its threat to apply force, coupled with Gambians’ resistance, resulted in the restoration of democratic order in the country. Similarly, ECOWAS’ preventive diplomacy efforts following the recent military incursion in 2021 affirmed the regional body’s zero-tolerance stance for power acquired through unconstitutional means. The practice of accessing political power through credible elections under the watch of civil society and international actors is progressively taking firm root across the region. However, despite these democratic gains, the region is also witnessing setbacks in emerging political developments across Member States. According to the Freedom House ‘Freedom in the World Report 2021’, of the 12 countries with the most significant decline in democracy year-on-year, five are in West Africa.[1] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index (2020) showed that only Ghana and Cabo Verde still qualify as fully-fledged democracies in the region.[2] Recently, the region has also witnessed a resurgence in military interregna in Mali and Guinea. This democracy backsliding portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS is concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region. Central to this negative democratic trend are concerns around political reforms that have undermined electoral integrity, inclusiveness and legitimacy in Member States. The application of some of these reforms has fuelled crises, which have led to the resurgence of coups d’état and threatened stability, peace and security in the region.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Reform, Democracy, Instability, Peacebuilding, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

10. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:
Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:
Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan