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42. Egypt and the Darfur conflict
- Author:
- Øystein Rolandsen and Jacob Høigilt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Sudan's western province of Darfur has revived even as the peace talks in Qatar between Sudan's government and the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) seem to have collapsed. Egypt has hitherto refrained from involvement in negotiations to end the conflict, a strategy that has contributed to further diminishing Cairo's already weakened status as a major player in regional politics and diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Arabia, and Egypt
43. Sudan Debt Dynamics: Status Quo, Southern Secession, Debt Division, and Oil–A Financial Framework for the Future
- Author:
- Benjamin Leo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The people of Southern Sudan are scheduled to vote in a referendum on whether to remain unified with the central government in Khartoum or break away to form a new, fully independent country. While the Khartoum government remains committed to a unified Sudan, all indications suggest that the Southern Sudanese will vote for secession by an overwhelming majority. Khartoum's willingness to accept the potential losses remains unclear. Many suspect that its ultimate actions will depend, at least in part, upon the resolution of key outstanding issues, such as oil and debt. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of Sudan's $35 billion in external debt obligations – both for a unified Sudan and a possible Southern secession. First, it examines Sudan's existing debt dynamics and the potential eligibility for traditional debt relief and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Second, it outlines potential options for dividing Sudan's external debt obligations in the event of a Southern secession. Third, it estimates external indebtedness ratios under each debt division scenario and the potential relevance of traditional debt relief treatments. Lastly, the paper provides an indicative roadmap for clearing Sudan's loan arrears of $30 billion and potentially securing comprehensive debt relief in the future.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Debt, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
44. Electoral Violence in Nigeria: CPA Contingency Planning
- Author:
- John Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Nigeria is a country of overlapping regional, religious, and ethnic divisions. Rifts between the North and the South of the country, ethnic groups, and Islam and Christianity often coincide and have sometimes resulted in sectarian violence. This has been the case particularly in its geographical center and in the Niger Delta region. In the Middle Belt, as the former is called, bouts of retributive bloodshed between Christian farmers and Muslim pastoralists erupt with some frequency. In the Niger Delta, an insurrection against the Abuja government has been raging for more than a decade over regional, ethnic, and environmental grievances. In all, credible observers ascribe over twelve thousand deaths since 1999 to ethnic, religious, and regional conflict in Nigeria.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
45. Ethnicity and Party Systems in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Matthias Basedau and Alexander Stroh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite earlier assumptions that ethnicity is a central feature of African party systems, there is little substantial evidence for this claim. The few studies with an empirical foundation rarely rely on individual data and are biased in favor of Anglophone Africa. This paper looks at four Francophone countries, drawing on four representative survey polls in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Multivariate regression models and bivariate control tools reveal that ethnicity matters as a determinant of party preference, but that its impact is generally rather weak and differs with regard to party systems and individual parties. “Ethnic parties” in the strict sense are almost completely absent, and only the Beninese party system is substantially “ethnicized.” In particular, regional ties between voters and leaders—rather than ethnic affiliation alone—deserve attention in the future study of voting behavior in Africa.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Post Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- Africa
46. Consultation on the Crisis in Darfur: New Strategies for a Just Peace Settlement
- Author:
- George Shepherd, Peter Van Arsdale, Negin Sobhani, Nicole Tanner, and Frederick AgyemanDuah
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- Africa Today Associates, Inc. (ATA) is a 501 (C) (3) non-profit organization registered in the United States of America. The organization was created in 1967 to publish the journal Africa Today and to address significant human rights issues involving the African continent. The journal had been launched in 1954 by Professor George Shepherd, the first Director of the American Committee on Africa (ACOA), to educate the public on Africa's struggle against colonialism. When ACOA could no longer publish the journal, ATA was moved to the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies (recently renamed the Josef Korbel School of International Studies). Since 2000, the journal has been owned and published by the University of Indiana Press.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Washington, and Sudan
47. Sudan: Justice, Peace and the ICC
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against President Bashir for atrocity crimes in Darfur has brought Sudan to a new decision point. The longruling National Congress Party (NCP) has defied the court, gained African Union (AU) and Arab League pressure on the Security Council to suspend the case and restricted humanitarian aid in Darfur, putting several million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and others at risk. Darfur rebels have been emboldened, reducing prospects for diplomatic progress. Simultaneously, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the North-South civil war is unravelling. As a new U.S. special representative begins to make his mark, the international community may be ready to sacrifice the justice issue for a quick-fix deal that would ensure elections in 2010. But Sudan will have peace only when its impunity system is dismantled. The right course is to build leverage by strongly backing the ICC so as to persuade the NCP that it will only secure the deferral of Bashir's case by adopting and implementing serious reforms.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and Genocide
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Arabia
48. The Power of Proximity: Strategic Decisions in African Party Politics
- Author:
- Alexander Stroh
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent publications suggest that exclusively ethnoregional parties are as rare in sub-Saharan Africa as elsewhere. At the same time, the idea that ethnicity is a very special feature of African party politics persists. The paper acknowledges the general relevance of ethnicity in party competition but emphasizes the level on which it becomes important. It develops a microbehavioral approach which pays particular attention to the strategic choices of party elites in order to supplement the dominant structuralist thinking in party research on Africa. An in-depth evaluation of detailed election data from Burkina Faso shows that strategies which rely on personal proximity between the voter and the candidates influence the parties' success to a great extent. Parties maximize their chances of winning seats if they concentrate their limited resources on the home localities of leading party members. Hence, African party politics are less dependent on ethnic demography than is often implied but more open to change through elite behavior.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
49. Amenazas a la estabilidad en la Nigeria actual
- Author:
- Leandro Martínez Peñas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Athena Intelligence Journal
- Institution:
- Athena Intelligence
- Abstract:
- Nigeria is a country that develops a crucial role in African balance. This fact is due to its population, its oil and mining resources, and its importance for the regional sphere, especially on Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. For this reason it must pay attention to the problems in which this State is involved, as secessionism and uprising, organized criminality, ecological damage, religious and ethnic tensions. Moreover it must be taken on account that democracy has been established in this region for a relatively short period of time. All these elements seriously threaten the stability of the most populated African nation.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
50. Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia's political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF's ethnically defined state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued inter- ethnic conflict. The international community should take Ethiopia's governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in Ethiopia's polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would destabilise the country and region.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia