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1. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:
Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Guidebook on Nigeria’s Energy Transition

Author:
Tengi George-Ikoli and Nafi Chinery
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
This guidebook serves as a comprehensive reference tool for the Nigerian government, as well as an accountability tool that enables Nigerian civil society actors to track the government’s implementation of its commitments to the energy transition. Nigerian government has designed to transition from fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—to renewable energy technologies, including institutional, policy, legal and fiscal frameworks. It is informed by engagements with state and non-state actors including representatives of the government, the private sector, communities, youth and women’s groups, and by their views of the strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria’s energy transition plans. Accounting for Nigeria’s unique context and peculiarities as a fossil-fuel-dependent nation, the guidebook seeks to provide greater clarity on ways to navigate the energy transition for the Nigerian government, civil society, the media, the country’s citizens and the international community. It also seeks to mitigate transition led shocks and strengthen the overall transition process in Nigeria. The guidebook can enhance stakeholder knowledge of Nigeria’s energy transition process and government action to accelerate the transition. This should encourage the adoption of a comprehensive plan aligned with the needs and realities of most Nigerians. The insights provided in the guidebook may also inspire and influence regional conversations across the African continent, creating a collective demand for a people-centered and just energy transition in multiple countries.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
Topic:
Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

4. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience

Author:
Bradford Simmons
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
Topic:
Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

5. Why Senegal Should Minimize Petroleum Operations Emissions

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, and William Davis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Slowing climate change is not the only reason Senegal should reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Minimizing emissions, particularly of methane, from the country’s oil and gas operations will increase government revenues, support its ambitions to use gas to increase domestic energy access, and reduce harms to the health and environment of local communities. Senegal’s government is starting to act on minimizing emissions from oil and gas production, but officials should consider strengthening the regulatory framework to support emissions minimization. Greater transparency and accountability, including effective campaigning by civil society actors, is critical to ensure effective action by companies, investors and the government. Measures to reduce oil and gas methane emissions have been well-known and cost-effective for many years, but progress in most countries has been slow. Senegal’s government should at a minimum ensure that the existing regulatory framework is publicly accessible, while Senegal EITI should advocate for disclosure of actual emissions when oil and gas production starts.
Topic:
Gas, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

6. Equitable Sharing of Mining Profits: The Best Deal for Tanzania?

Author:
Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Tanzania’s unique approach to mining taxation, described as an equitable sharing of economic benefits between government and mining company according to a negotiated split, could leave the country shortchanged. Tanzanian citizens have access to the terms of only one profit-sharing deal, a 50-50 framework agreement for Barrick’s gold mines. The rest remain unpublished, despite laws that require the government to disclose deal terms. The Barrick deal predicates government revenues more heavily on mine profitability than a more typical regime, making these revenues more uncertain. This structure also increases the risk that companies may seek to avoid tax payments. Negotiating the split on a project-by-project basis, without any legal guardrails on the approach, increases the risks of corruption and unfavorable deal terms. The Tanzanian government could eliminate these risks by borrowing provisions from other countries that also require a specific government share of mine profits but take a different approach. However, unless the government has identified benefits from its current sharing mechanism that a more typical regime does not offer, it should not pursue a sharing mechanism and instead focus on improving the underlying regime, such as increasing its flexibility with regards to profits and reducing tax avoidance risks. To gain more trust from citizens, Tanzania’s government should explain how the mechanism works in existing deals.
Topic:
Government, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Mining, Transparency, Contracts, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

7. Is International Climate Finance Unfair and Inefficient?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Finance is arguably the most sensitive climate negotiation topic. Different studies have shown that rich countries emit the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while the climate footprint of the poorest countries is much more limited. In addition, the countries that emit the less often turn out to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, with high needs in terms of adaptation finance. According to some analysis, the 46 least-developed countries suffer from a high risk of loss and damage, and the countries that are the least at risk are in Europe. Therefore, developing countries are demanding contributions from the developed world to address their climate finance needs (both in terms of mitigation and adaptation). These demands have been somehow met with a pledge made at COP 15 in 2009, where developed countries announced a yearly contribution of 100 billion dollars (USD) by 2020. However, this pledge has not been honored. Meanwhile, climate change is accelerating and, as a result, countries’ needs in terms of adaptation are increasing, as well as their loss and damage. The finance gap is widening and though the 100 USD billion pledge is expected to be achieved in 2023, analysis from the think tank Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) shows that it will not be enough to address the current needs. According to their analysis, the current flows need to be increased by at least 590% annually. This briefing will show that, in addition, climate finance is not accessible to the poorest and therefore increases inequalities and the exclusion of the most vulnerable countries. The Prime Minister of Barbados, Ms. Mia Motley, complains that the “international financial system […] is broken, outdated, infested with short-termism and downright unfair. In parallel, the multilateral climate finance governance is evolving: new multilateral banks and donors are gaining ground and could be the first step of a power shift in climate finance from Western countries to emerging economies. Meanwhile, the Bretton Woods institutions are being reformed, and new mechanisms may bring promising developments (e.g., under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement). The Paris Summit for a New Global Financial Pact on June 22-23, 2023 is an opportunity to address these issues, though it also risks highlighting the North-South tensions further.
Topic:
European Union, Climate Finance, Energy Transition, and Green Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and France

8. A Framework for a Win-Win Europe-Africa Energy and Climate Partnership

Author:
Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
North-South tensions are exacerbated at a time of unprecedented turmoil for both Europeans and Africans. European polycrises (geopolitical, energy-related and economic) echo the systematic vulnerability of Africans, which is reinforced by external shocks. Following a dialog of the deaf, with rising discontent, tensions, and misunderstandings on both sides, there is now a new phase of discussion, coordination, and cooperation to achieve very concrete, high-impact actions. Europeans and Africans need each other to advance the European energy transition on the one hand and make decisive and rapid progress toward achieving the SDGs on the other. The urgency and issues at stake are such that this opening window to change the dynamics and achieve major and rapid advances should not be missed. Key priorities for action include debt restructuring, reinforcing funding, de-risking investments into SDGs segments, new priorities for the energy and mining sectors, and fostering private investment. There has been progress on financial and economic issues at recent COPs, and at the June 2023 summit in Paris, calling for a New Global Financial Pact. But Europeans still need to reconsider and consolidate their approach to hydrocarbons, electricity, mining, and biodiversity, taking into account the expectations and needs of the countries concerned. The widespread electrical and energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa is a mounting factor of instability and now requires a breakthrough and a careful balance between fossil fuels and low-carbon solutions. Would sub-Saharan Africa develop as Europe, Russia, China, or the United States did in the 20th century, all efforts to preserve the planet would be vain. In the electricity sector, given the immense hurdles that lie ahead, a key issue at stake is to de-risk investments, strengthen concessional finance and target it more effectively. Tools can be put in place quickly. States, for their part, need to strengthen their regulatory frameworks and modernize their national companies. Networks are a weak link and deserve to be supported by international financial institutions. In the field of hydrocarbons, where major upstream activity is taking place, increasingly to the benefit of resource holding nations, the challenge is to avoid any new resource curse, to multiply development opportunities, and to minimize social and environmental impacts. Solutions do exist, and all actors must now assume their responsibilities. The mining sector requires infrastructure of all kinds, as well as the progressive implementation of demanding ESG criteria to protect the environment and workers, while fostering local and national development. Europeans need to mobilize capital, build industrial alliances, help train workforces, and structure win-win projects which create jobs and infrastructure. In the field of biodiversity, a huge opportunity for action and development is opening up, provided that the integrity of certification mechanisms and governance at the local level are strengthened, involving all stakeholders in a transparent way. The energy transition envisaged in Europe is in no way transposable to sub-Saharan Africa, where the main challenges concern access to affordable energy and clean cooking, development, youth employment, and adaptation to climate change. A challenge for Europeans is to speed up processes and reinforce the ability to accompany multidimensional projects, and not to be too prescriptive, so as not to lose influence and attractiveness further. The taxonomy, non-financial disclosure rules, or ESG criteria matter of course, but require some flexibility, and to be included in a process or progressive convergence. Priorities should be refocused on rapidly ensuring overall access to clean cooking, which is the mother of all battles and a key to development and environmental preservation. All the required technologies and solutions are available, and Kenya, alongside a few other countries in the region, showcases strong progress. With relatively modest resources, this existential challenge could be decisively addressed. Then comes the issues of transmission and distribution grids, and the wider infrastructure. Against this backdrop, providing public support for hydrogen export projects in the region appears less of a priority for European capitals at this stage. Finally, the success of the current re-engagement between Europeans and Africans will very much also depend on the European Union’s ability to foster the decrease of its greenhouse gas emissions so as to make room for the inevitable rise of emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries in the region need to improve governance and their investment frameworks to foster inclusive, sustainable, and stable economic growth and development, and avoid that all stops soon again. Yet these governments also need to raise the same demands and issues of climate justice to China, Russia, Middle East, or North American countries, which are the world’s largest polluters and are less committed than is Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Ecology, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

9. Facing the Future: What National Oil Companies Say About the Energy Transition

Author:
Andrea Furnaro and David Manley
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
National oil companies (NOCs) should publicly acknowledge the risk of the energy transition, assess this risk, and act by implementing mitigation plans. Only 9 out of 21 NOCs analyzed acknowledge the risk of the energy transition, 4 have mentioned the use of transition risk assessments, and 5 have explicitly mentioned strategies to mitigate the risk. None of the NOCs have published “just transition plans” detailing how they will help workers and communities. NOCs do not plan to decrease investments in risky oil and gas assets. Petrobras (Brazil), Petronas (Malaysia) and Sonangol (Angola) are divesting from less valuable assets, but not necessarily to mitigate transition risk or downsize operations. Some NOCs, such as NNPC (Nigeria) and GNPC (Ghana), want to expedite drilling before oil and gas demand falls and acquire assets divested by other companies. At least six NOCs intend to increase oil and gas investment to secure energy supplies. Most NOCs intend to diversify, especially into gas, oil refineries, petrochemicals and renewable energy. However, it is unclear how much NOCs are spending on diversification or whether these are effective mitigation strategies. NOCs can learn from each other. Two NOCs—Ecopetrol (Colombia) and Petrobras—are clear leaders in terms of recognition of energy transition risk. However, NOCs disclosing more transition risk information are not necessarily also those reducing higher-risk investments.
Topic:
Oil, Business, Investment, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

10. The Geopolitical Consequences of Oil in Africa: The Case of Nigeria

Author:
Cyril Obi
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Oil endowment has been a significant factor in Africa’s history, politics, and development. The continent was positioned strategically following the global energy transition from coal to crude oil in the latter part of thenineteenth and early part of the twentieth centuries, which shaped the history of oil in Africa.1 Today, Africa’s oil reserves serve both as a supply of oil to the global market and as a node for the continued integration of the continent’s petro-economies into a volatile global oil market. However, the fortunes of Africa’s oil-producing states depend on a commodity whose price they do not determine, and they find themselves with limited options to collectively leverage their positions on the global stage. This article explores the geopolitical consequences of the imminent energy transition from oil to non-carbon and renewable sources of energy for Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter: Nigeria. It argues that the growing use of non-carbon and renewable forms of energy will impact African oil producers negatively, particularly in relation to economic growth, national stability, and diminished international influence. The potential impact of a global energy transition for Nigeria is significant for a continent whose oil producers include Algeria, Angola, Chad, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and South Sudan—particularly when grappling with its emerging implications. This transi- tion assumes greater importance in the face of new oil discoveries in other Afri- can countries such as Ghana, Mauritania, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The new oil discoveries have revived the debate over the implications of the geopolitics of oil in Africa, as well as in an energy-hungry world that is simultaneously caught in a “global energy dilemma.”2
Topic:
Oil, Geopolitics, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria