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2. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement
- Author:
- Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa
3. A Review of Pillar I & II of Zambia’s Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme 2017-2019
- Author:
- Florence Banda-Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Mbewe Kalikeka, Nakubyana Mungomba, Ignatius Masilokwa, and Caesar Cheelo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The economic crisis of 2015 destabilised Zambia’s economic performance. The depreciation of the Kwacha and its pass-through effects led to inflation of as high as 22% and growth, at 2.9%, was far below the 5% target. The overall Budget deviation was 15% of Parliamentary appropriations in 2015, disrupting planned activities and attainment of set macroeconomic objectives. There were huge variations between what the consequent national Budgets committed to do and what they actually did. To fix this and nudge the country back towards high sustained economic growth, the Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme (ESGP) was crafted in 2017. The five-pillar plan aimed to ensure prudent fiscal management by providing a system of accountability and a standard against which results could be measured, among other things. The aim of this paper is to review the ESGP, particularly, its performance in 2018. The paper sets out to understand how well Zambia faired in implementing the ESGP as well as to highlight the broader fiscal trends recently. It ultimately seeks to make recommendations about how Zambia can revive its path to economic stability and growth. The paper focuses tightly on the first two pillars of the ESGP, i.e. (i) restoring budget credibility; and (ii) enhancing domestic resource mobilisation and refocusing public expenditure. The remaining three pillars are slated to be reviewed in the second half of 2019.
- Topic:
- Budget, Finance, Economic Growth, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
4. Explaining Bank Stability Using Bank Specific Factors in Zimbabwe
- Author:
- Albert Muparuri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study examined the role played by bank specific factors in explaining bank stability in Zimbabwe. A panel data set was compiled covering 15 CAMEL type ratios from all 26 banking institutions which were operational in Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2014. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Effects (RE) model were applied to establish the statistically significant CAMEL type bank distress prognosticators in Zimbabwe. This study revealed that Capital, Asset Quality and Earnings (CAE), are the most statistically significant bank specific factors which influence distress in the Zimbabwean market. On the macroeconomic front, statistical significance was established on the ‘end-period Consumer Price Index (CPI)’ in determining bank stability in Zimbabwe. This implies that a deteriorating asset quality base in a bank with a feeble capital base and weak earnings in a market dogged by inflation instability is a classic precursor to bank distress in Zimbabwe.
- Topic:
- Economics, Banks, Banking, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe