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1. Resource-based conflict early-warning system in the Hammer, Nyangatom, and Dassanech community of South Omo, Ethiopia

Author:
Asmare Shetahun Alemneh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Conflict refers to actual or perceived incompatibility of interests, goals, and actions in relationships between individuals or groups. It is a dynamic process where attitudes, behaviours, contexts and structures are constantly changing and influencing one another.1 Conflict in pastoral areas has long been linked to the need to gain control of scarce and strategic resources, particularly water and pasture. However, the key issues here are not merely scarcity, which, as highlighted above, has always been a determining feature of life in the rangelands, but also the increased inability to manage scarcity.2 In the Horn of Africa, there are common factors contributing to conflict and violence within and between pastoralists, such as inappropriate government policies, socio-economic and political marginalisation, inadequate land tenure policies, insecurity, intensified cattle rustling, proliferation of small arms and light weapons, weakened traditional governance in pastoral areas, vulnerability to climatic variability, and competition with wildlife.3 In Ethiopia, the pattern and forms of the recent violent conflicts in pastoral areas indicate that they have been involved in resource control and utilisation competition.4 Conflicts are a common phenomenon in the South Omo Zone pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities due mainly to resource competition (pasture and water-points) and negative perceptions.5 However, conflict, by its nature, is dynamic; the drivers or causes and their nature are changeable through time due to many natural and human-made phenomena. Accordingly, an in-depth investigation of natural resource-based conflict and its dynamics in the South Omo Zone in Ethiopia is the focus of this article. This article is based on a study conducted in the Dassanech, Hammer and Nyangatom Woreda collective pastoralist community, and based on empirical primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussion (FGD).
Topic:
Security, Environment, Conflict, Pastoralism, Peace, Competition, Early Warning, and Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

2. “Under One Tree”? Exploring Pastoral, National, and International Approaches to Humanitarian Action

Author:
Elizabeth Stites, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Paul Howe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Although resilience is an inherent component of pastoral systems, it must be adequately supported through effective national and international policies, programs, and approaches. However, to date the evidence provided by pastoralists and organizations working with pastoral populations suggests that international and national humanitarian assistance is rarely provided in ways that are truly helpful for pastoral communities to protect their livelihoods. This synthesis report brings together the findings from the first phase of a three-year research project exploring how humanitarian action — comprising early warning, anticipatory action, and emergency response — can be more attuned to the needs, perspectives, and approaches of pastoral communities in the dryland areas of the Greater Horn and Sudano-Sahel. The main outputs from Phase 1 are three desk studies examining humanitarian action from three perspectives: the views of the pastoralists, national governments, and the international community. This synthesis report reflects upon the cross-cutting learning and key themes and considers the implications for humanitarian action in dryland areas.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, Pastoralism, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Gender, Early Warning, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

3. Anticipatory Insurance with African Risk Capacity: A Holistic Benefit-Cost Analysis

Author:
Leah B. Poole, Vaibhav Anand, Alexa Gozdiff Spognardi, Anne Radday, Komal Rathod, and Erin Coughlan de Perez
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
African Risk Capacity, with the support of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, has designed an anticipatory insurance product to support farmers in the drought-prone regions of Malawi and Zambia. The anticipatory approach is innovative because the insurance pays out when forecasts predict a drought, rather than after drought-related losses and damages have occurred. This report explores the potential costs and benefits of the insurance product and proposes a framework for monitoring and evaluating these factors once the product is implemented. Costs and benefits are assessed with an economic model, supported by qualitative data collected from key stakeholders. The results of this research are intended to assist government decision-makers by providing insights into potential challenges and successes associated with the product’s implementation. Additionally, the research may offer a useful framework of considerations for the expansion of this initiative to other countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Early Warning, and Livestock
Political Geography:
Africa

4. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

5. CEWARN’s Strategy Framework and Civil Society Partnership: Lessons for early-warning and response systems

Author:
Michael Aeby
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
After focusing on pastoralist conflicts in three cross-border areas for ten years, the Conflict Early Warning and Response Network (CEWARN) adopted an ambitious new Strategy Framework in 2012. The strategy transformed CEWARN into a system to detect and respond timeously to the potential escalation of violent conflicts that may be triggered by economic, environmental, governance, security and social matters in all member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).1 Besides expanding the thematic and geographical range, the strategy enhanced CEWARN’s partnership with civil society, which was initiated by the pioneering CEWARN Protocol in 2002.2 This article reviews the implementation of CEWARN’s partner-ships with civil society organisations (CSOs) for data collection, analysis and response under the current Strategy Framework. It identifies outstanding challenges and lessons for (inter)governmental conflict early-warning and response systems (CEWRS).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Crisis Management, Peace, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Indigenous Early Warning in Karamoja, Uganda

Author:
Oliver V. Wasonga and Raphael Lotira Arasio
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
An effective early warning system (EWS) is a prerequisite for timely response to avert and mitigate the impacts of disasters that affect pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities. Whereas there exist various forms of EWS in Uganda, the main concerns have been whether the early warning information is timely, accurate, accessible, and elicits early action. These questions point at inefficiencies in the conventional EWS in the country and the importance of the indigenous early warning system (IEWS) used by rural communities. These indigenous systems are especially important where conventional early warning information is inaccessible or coarse and therefore not suitable for guiding location-specific decisions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Pastoralism, Indigenous, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

7. The 2022 Humanitarian Crisis in Karamoja, Uganda: A real-time review

Author:
Raphael Lotira Arasio and Adrian Cullis
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This real-time review aims to document the events that led to Karamoja’s hunger crisis in 2022, the reporting of the worsening situation by early warning systems, and the responses of the Government of Uganda and the international aid community. The review took place from the September 27–October 21, 2022.
Topic:
Food Security, Pastoralism, Resilience, Nutrition, Early Warning, and Malnutrition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

8. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America