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131. Guinea-Bissau: Beyond Rule of the Gun

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na Wai, on 1 March 2009 and Presi- dent Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending the election the constitution requires. That the killings occurred only months after the acclaimed November parliamentary elections, however, indicates that, in current circumstances, the democratic process cannot cope with the rule of the gun, as well as the extent to which the military's use of force has overwhelmed state institutions. Without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt a slide into further violence. Elites need to stand up to the military, but they require support. The international community should work for an international or hybrid commission of inquiry into the killings. Security system reform needs to be improve d by better international coordination and creation of a national commission with enhanced autonomy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

132. Consultation on the Crisis in Darfur: New Strategies for a Just Peace Settlement

Author:
George Shepherd, Peter Van Arsdale, Negin Sobhani, Nicole Tanner, and Frederick AgyemanDuah
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Africa Today Associates, Inc. (ATA) is a 501 (C) (3) non-profit organization registered in the United States of America. The organization was created in 1967 to publish the journal Africa Today and to address significant human rights issues involving the African continent. The journal had been launched in 1954 by Professor George Shepherd, the first Director of the American Committee on Africa (ACOA), to educate the public on Africa's struggle against colonialism. When ACOA could no longer publish the journal, ATA was moved to the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies (recently renamed the Josef Korbel School of International Studies). Since 2000, the journal has been owned and published by the University of Indiana Press.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Washington, and Sudan

133. Côte d'Ivoire : les impératifs de sortie de crise

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le 4 mars 2007, les deux principaux protagonistes de la crise ivoirienne signaient l'accord politique de Ouagadougou (APO). Ce compromis a, dans un pre-mier temps, apporté un environnement de paix en Côte d'Ivoire. La ligne de démarcation entre les deux pro-tagonistes a été démantelée. Un nouveau gouvernement a été formé et les bases ont été jetées pour apporter une réponse aux deux questions-clés du conflit : l'identité et la citoyenneté ivoiriennes et la légitimité du pouvoir. Mais, plus de deux ans après son adoption, l'APO va mal. Une sortie de crise sera possible uniquement si les engagements pris dans la capitale burkinabé sont enfin suivis d'effets. Sortir la Côte d'Ivoire de sa décen-nie de crise ne nécessitera pas seulement l'organisation d'élections crédibles mais impliquera également des progrès significatifs dans le processus de désarmement ainsi qu'une véritable réunification de l'administration. Ceci demandera la remobilisation de la facilitation burkinabé et une pression accrue des partenaires inter-nationaux sur les acteurs du conflit.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

134. Die Intervention der Vereinten Nationen in Somalia

Author:
Nils Goede
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Der Report analysiert die Entscheidungsprozesse des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen, die am 3. Dezember 1992 zu der Verabschiedung der Somalia‐Resolution 794 geführt haben. Fürdie Analyse wird der Multiple‐Streams‐Ansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen des Ansatzes warden Entscheidungssituationen als mehrdeutige Stimuli in Bezug auf Informationen, Ziele und Messkriterien betrachtet. Entscheidungen sind vor einem solchen Hintergrund oft weder rational begründbar, noch sind sie gezwungenermaßen linear‐kausal mit einem bestimmten Problem verbunden. Die Organisation ist stets mit einer hohen Anzahl von simultan auftretenden Problemen und Optionen konfrontiert und muss unter Zeitdruck bestimmen, welche Probleme und Handlungsoptionen auf die Agenda gesetzt werden und in welchen Themenbereichen eine Entscheidung ansteht. Lösungen werden hierbei zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt (künstlich) in Übereinstimmung mit Problemen und Akteuren gebracht und in eine Entscheidung transferiert. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Verabschiedung der Resolution 794 weniger auf die tatsächliche Problemlage in Somalia zurückzuführen war als auf Dynamiken des amerikanischen Wahlkampfs und den stetigen Einsatz des VNGeneralsekretärs Boutros Boutros‐Ghali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, United Nations, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

135. Liberia: Uneven Progress in Security Sector Reform

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since independence and for fourteen years of war, Liberia's army, police and other security agencies have mostly been sources of insecurity and misery for a destitute people. The internationally driven attempt to radically reform the security sector since the war's end in 2003 is a major chance to put this right and prevent new destabilisation. Security sector reform (SSR) programs have been unprecedented in ambition but with mixed results. Army reform, entailing complete disbanding of existing forces, has made significant progress despite lack of proper oversight of private military companies (PMCs) and of consensus on strategic objectives. But police and other security reforms are much less satisfactory. The bold approach to army reform was possible due to strong national consensus and the presence of a large, liberally mandated UN presence. Government and donors must sustain their support to maintain hard-won momentum in army reform and, once clear benchmarks are set, give a floundering police force more resources. The drawdown of the UN force, begun in the second half of 2008, underlines the urgency.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Liberia

136. Darfur: In Search of Peace

Author:
George Shepherd and Peter Van Arsdale
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
Darfur is located in the Western part of Sudan and borders Libya to the north, and Chad and CentralAfrican Republic to the West. It had an estimated population of seven million (prior to refugee and IDPdisplacements), representing more than 70 tribes, and is potentially rich in natural resources includingoil, copper, and uranium, as well as reservoirs of subsurface "Pleistocene water."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

137. The Somali conflict: The role of external actors

Author:
Bjørn Møller
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

138. Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Author:
Edward Thomas
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005, ending two decades of war between Sudan's central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. The CPA shares wealth and power between Sudan's powerful Centre, a newly autonomous South, and Sudan's other vast, diverse, impoverished peripheries. The bold peace gave new legitimacy to the two parties, who agreed to face their first competitive elections in 2009. Southern Sudan will have a referendum on self-determination in 2011.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

139. Trading Life, Trading Death: The Flow of Small Arms from Mozambique to Malawi

Author:
Gregory Mthembu-Salter
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In a region apparently awash with weapons and plagued with rising levels of armed crime, Malawi is a welcome exception to these characteristics. In early 2007 there were only 9,320 legally registered firearms in Malawi excluding those used by the security forces, compared to just under 87,000 in Zambia (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 286) and nearly 4 million in South Africa (Gould et al., 2004, p. 133). Though a country of an estimated 13 million people, in the 5 years between 1996 and 2000 Malawi suffered just 2,161 reported cases of armed robbery (Mwakasungula and Nungu, 2004, p. 89). For 2005 the figure was 316 and for 2004 it was 263, according to figures provided by the Malawi Police Service (MPS). Even leaving aside South Africa, where there were 119,726 recorded cases of aggravated robbery in 2006 (SAPS, 2006), Malawi's armed crime statistics still compare favourably with the rest of the region. In neighbouring Zambia, for example, where there is a population of only 10 million people, there were 3,168 reported cases of armed robbery in the 5 years between 1998 and 2002 (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 294).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

140. TCHAD : LA POUDRIERE DE L'EST

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'Est du Tchad est une poudrière dont l'explosion pourrait déstabiliser l'ensemble du pays ainsi que les pays voisins et aggraver une situation humanitaire déjà désastreuse. Les conflits locaux fondés sur la raréfaction des ressources ont été exacerbés par des manipulations politiques nationales et régionales. La population a déjà énormément souffert des conflits internes tchadiens, de la crise du Darfour et de la guerre froide tchado-soudanaise. Les deux gouvernements, avec le soutien de leurs partenaires internationaux, devraient reprendre la mise en place de l'accord de Dakar, mais une conférence spécifiquement dédiée au conflit à l'Est du Tchad devrait également être organisée afin que les acteurs locaux et nationaux trouvent des solutions aux causes internes de la crise. Elle devrait être intégrée dans les structures existantes du processus de paix tchadien.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Africa