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61. Burundi: Restarting Political Dialogue

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En dépit des progrès enregistrés dans la mise en œuvre de l'accord de paix avec le Parti pour la libération du peuple hutu – Forces nationa les de libération (Palipe-hutu-FNL), dernier mouvement rebelle en activité dans le pays, le Burundi traverse une crise politique dange-reuse qui risque de compromettre la tenue d'élections libres et démocratiques en 2010 et d'affecter la stabi-lité du pays. Le retour du chef rebelle Agathon Rwasa à Bujumbura, et la signature de l'accord politique de Magaliesburg le 11 juin 2008 sont des pas importants pour le processus de paix burundais. Toutefois, le processus de désarmement commence à peine, et la question de l'intégration du mouvement rebelle dans les institutions politiques et les corps de défense et de sécurité n'est toujours pa s réglée. Dans ce contexte, l'absence de dialogue avec les partis politiques d'opposition est dommageable à la bonne gestion du pays. Il est urgent que les acteurs politiques locaux et les partenaires extérieurs du Burundi prennent la mesure de ces risques et s'efforcent de les conjurer par un renouveau du dialogue national.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

62. Moving Beyond the 4Ps – An Integrated Conflict Management System for the African Union.

Author:
Cedric H. de Coning
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The 1992 Agenda for Peace was a landmark development in the conflict management field, but it did also produce side-effects. The UN, AU, EU and others have developed conflict management capacities that have encouraged the bureaucratic compartmentalization of the 4Ps across different units and departments. This report introduces an integrated conflict management model that is, instead, focussed on the multi-dimensional (political, security, socio-economic, rule of law and human rights) nature of conflict systems, and the need to coherently combine the collective efforts of a wide range of internal and external actors to build momentum towards peace. The report argues that, in the AU context, such an integrated conflict management model would be more effective and efficient than the existing 4Ps model. The AU, being smaller, newer and more open to further development and capacity building than the UN and EU, has a better chance of breaking free from the inadequacies of the bureaucratic 4Ps model, and adopting an integrated conflict management model.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

63. Bringing Peace to the Niger Delta

Author:
Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conflict in the Niger Delta has posed a fundamental domestic challenge to Nigerian security for more than a decade. Despite pledges to address continued instability in the Delta, the administration of Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has not yet initiated a process to resolve the political, economic and security problems in the region. Oil production continues to diminish as a result of militant attacks, and is currently 20 to 25 percent below capacity. Meanwhile, militia members in the Niger Delta continue to engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping and oil bunkering1 to maximize profits for themselves and their political patrons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

64. Implementing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement; Prospects and Challenges

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
On September 11th, 2006, just over a year after the passing of John Garang, and 18 months after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on January 9, 2005, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Defense University convened a conference to assess the progress that had been made in implementing Sudan's landmark CPA. The conference brought together experts and policymakers to discuss the state of CPA implementation, the relationship between the CPA and political developments elsewhere in Sudan, notably in Darfur, and the ways in which the international community might assist in building a sustainable peace in Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

65. Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

66. Developing a Contextually Relevant Concept of Regional Hegemony: The Case of South Africa, Zimbabwe and "Quiet Diplomacy"

Author:
Miriam Prys
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Africa's “quiet diplomacy” has been often used to reject the notion of South African leadership or regional hegemony in southern Africa. This article finds that this evaluation is founded on a misguided understanding of regional hegemony, which is based on conventional hegemony theories that are mostly derived from the global role of the United States after World War II. Alternatively, this article uses a concept of hegemony that, for example, takes into account the “regionality” of South Africa's hegemony, which both allows external actors to impact on regional relations and allows South Africa to pursue its foreign policy goals on the global level of international politics. This concept helps to systemically analyze South Africa's foreign policy in the Zimbabwean crisis and to better integrate this policy into the broader framework of its regional and global ambitions.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

67. Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

68. Beyond Darfur: Sudan in its Entirety

Author:
Matt Levy
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Sudan is known to most Americans today for the ongoing genocide in its western region of Darfur, yet the problems facing this country are more complex than many activists are aware. As the largest country in Africa and the size of the United States East of the Mississippi River1, Sudan faces many challenges, governance chief among them. Shaped by its history, modern Sudan experienced two phases of civil war between the North and South (1955-1972 and 1983- 2005) killing more than two million while displacing many millions more. In 2005, this conflict ceased with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). However, it is in danger of erupting once again if CPA implementation continues to be delayed due to Khartoum's intransigence on many issues and the capacity challenges faced by the Government of Southern Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Sudan

69. Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: How Conflicts Connect and Peace Agreements Unravel

Author:
Sally Healy
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This report is a study of three peace processes in the Horn of Africa, a region of Africa distinguished by the prevalence and persistence of armed conflict. It deals with the Algiers Agreement of December 2000 between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Somalia National Peace and Reconciliation Process concluded in October 2004 and the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement of January 2005. It examines in turn the background and historical context of the conflicts that these peace agreements were intended to resolve. It charts the developments since the agreements were signed, seeking to assess how far they have achieved successful outcomes for peace and stability. The results are very mixed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

70. Sierra Leone: A New Era of Reform?

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sierra Leone has made much progress since the civil war ended in 2002, but a number of social and economic time bombs must still be defused if an enduring peace is to be built. The 2007 elections, in which Ernest Bai Koroma won the presidency and his All People's Congress (APC) wrested the parliament from the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), restored legitimacy to the electoral process. Koroma's reform agenda promises much but must overcome big challenges. The majority of the population lives in abject poverty, and an ever-growing army of unemployed, socially alienated youth is a perennial threat to security. Patronage networks and identity politics, though evolving, continue to constrain government decisions. The new government faces a fundamental political challenge in building public confidence in its agenda, while donor support to post-war reconstruction is gradually scaled down. It needs to do more than call for “attitudinal change” and a renewed “social con- tract” if it is to improve accountability and combat corruption. The UN Peacebuilding Commission can make a major contribution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone