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11. Safeguarding Sudan’s Revolution

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan’s post-Bashir transition holds the promise of civilian rule but also perils, among them renewed insurgency, economic stagnation and backsliding into autocracy. Outside powers should press the military to adhere to its power-sharing pact with the opposition. Authorities in Khartoum should pursue peace with rebels. What’s new? Since Omar al-Bashir’s 11 April ouster, Sudan’s military leadership and opposition alliance have appointed a new prime minister, formed a cabinet and assembled a supervisory council to oversee a power-sharing deal concluded on 17 August. If honoured, the deal could pave the way for elections and civilian rule. Why does it matter? Sudan faces a crushing economic crisis, insurgencies and political polarisation, with a security establishment bent on keeping power and an opposition movement determined to instal a fully civilian administration. The 17 August agreement represents the best pathway both to achieving reform and to averting spiralling violence. What should be done? The AU, U.S. and EU, together with Gulf states, should push the generals to respect the power-sharing deal. They should encourage Khartoum to make peace with insurgents in peripheral areas. The U.S. should rescind Sudan’s state sponsor of terrorism designation while maintaining pressure on the military in other ways.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economy, Negotiation, Revolution, Transition, and Omar al-Bashir
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

12. Highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict

Author:
Helen Young, Elizabeth Stites, and Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This is the third in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. The first two briefing papers accompany regional case-study reports on Chad, South Sudan and the Sudan, and on Uganda that challenge many long-held assumptions about nutrition and livelihoods in countries struggling to recover from conflict, violence and fragility. FAO reviewed these regional case-studies on resilience and vulnerability at a two-day high-level workshop in Rome in November 2018. This brief summarizes the report highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict, including insights from the workshop participants and some implications for policies, programs, and future research.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, North Africa, Chad, and South Sudan

13. Comparative analysis of livelihood recovery in the post-conflict periods in Karamoja and northern Uganda

Author:
Elizabeth Stites, Frank Muhereza, and Claire McGillem
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This is the second in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. This briefing paper accompanies a report that examines the parallel but separate trajectories of peace-building, recovery, and transformation over post-conflict periods in northern (Acholi and Lango subregions) and northeastern (Karamoja) Uganda. Parallels between these areas include a history of marginalization from the central state, underdevelopment and endemic poverty, and vulnerability to climate change and crossborder incursions. We argue that throughout the post-conflict periods, the initial peace processes in both locations were largely top-down in nature, with little participation from the affected populations. While keeping in mind the key differences in these areas, we highlight the nature of recovery, the ongoing challenges, and the need for external actors to be cognizant of the continuing fragility as they design policies and interventions for these locations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food Security, Conflict, and Pastorialism
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and North Africa

14. Breaking the Silos: Pragmatic National Approaches to Prevention

Author:
Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In this policy briefing, our fifth in our series on prevention at the UN, we draw on examples from Côte d’Ivoire and Timor-Leste to illustrate how countries have developed integrated actions on prevention that cut across sectors, including security, development, and human rights. We then highlight options for the UN to better support these strategies through cross-pillar approaches and identify practical ways forward for governments implementing prevention approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Human Rights, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, Timor-Leste, and Côte d'Ivoire

15. Political Breakdown in South Sudan: United Nations and a New Challenge to Human Security (2014 - 2018)

Author:
Daniel Mendes Aguiar Santos
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
This article aims to examine the context of the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security in the country, and to analyze the response of the United Nations, with a focus on civilian protection, in the period 2014-2018. In this light, the theoretical hypothesis was that “within the framework of a United Nations peace mission, the implementation of a strategy for the protection of civilians corroborates human security in the region of crisis and/or conflict.” In this effort, after this introduction, the methodological considerations about the investigation are presented, followed by a theoretical and conceptual frame that fits the analysis. Subsequently, is the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security and, following the central question, the United Nations response focused on the protection of civilians. Finally, we present the conclusive aspects, illuminated by the theoretical hypothesis.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

16. Intersectionality of Conflict in Africa The African Union’s Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) Mechanism

Author:
Frederic Gateretse-Ngoga
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Over the years the African continent has made significant strides in ensuring its voice is heard on the global scene. Despite this progress, Africa is still not perceived as a credible business partner. Although Africa has experienced significant economic growth, it is still considered “jobless” growth. A “youth bulge” is also appearing across the continent, which can be both an asset and a ticking time bomb. Overall, Africa continues to witness diverse threats to its peace and security, ranging from communal, ethno-religious, and pastoralist conflicts to violent extremism, and most recently, the increasing impacts of climate change. Combined, these threats have claimed an enormous number of lives and properties, displaced millions, and destroyed sources of livelihoods all while stunting socio-economic progress. It is critical for the African Union (AU) and its member states to collectively address the root causes and to understand the multidimensionality of security in Africa to avoid further bloodshed. ​ Understanding what breeds instability is essential in preventing the outbreak of violence and conflict. Instability is often caused by four main factors: power contestation, lack of inclusivity, unequal distribution of resources, and impunity. If these root causes are not addressed in a timely manner, instability is inevitable. Over the years, several strategies have been employed at national, regional, and continental levels to address conflicts. We are perplexed by the dynamics of the existing threats, as well as the patterns of the emerging threats. Assessments reveal an increasing inter-relatedness of the existing and emerging threats and predict their escalation if they are not adequately addressed in a timely manner. ​ More often than not, the signs of potential violent conflicts exist, but the corresponding responses are relatively weak or late. This trend has compelled world leaders to advocate for prevention at the earliest stage given the enormous humanitarian, psychological, and socio-economic costs of violence. As such, the imperatives of matching early warning with early response to prevent and or mitigate violent conflicts cannot be overemphasized. However, these strategies should not be implemented separately or haphazardly, but in concerted and coordinated manners to ensure tangible impacts... ​
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

17. Security Sector Reform and Sustaining Peace Proceedings of the High-Level Roundtable

Author:
Vincenza Scherrer and Alba Bescos Pou
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
On 23 April 2018 in New York, Slovakia and South Africa, on behalf of the UN Group of Friends of SSR, co-hosted a High-Level Roundtable on Security Sector Reform and Sustaining Peace. The event took place on the eve of the High-Level Meeting of the UN General Assembly on “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace” and was organized with the support of the Security Sector Reform Unit of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO), the Bureau for Policy and Program Support at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). The High-Level Roundtable was the third in a series of three high-level events held in the period of a year. It was preceded by a High-Level Dialogue on Global Experiences in SSR, hosted in New York in May 2017 – especially a seminar on “The Nexus between SSR, Conflict Prevention and Peace Sustainment” co-hosted by South Africa and Slovakia, and a seminar on “Conflict Prevention and Peace Sustainment on the African Continent” co-hosted by South Africa and Senegal – as well as a High-Level Conference on the “Role of Security Sector Reform in Sustaining Peace: Challenges and Opportunities” that was hosted by Slovakia on 5-6 June 2017 in Bratislava. These events served to highlight important challenges to SSR support in the context of sustaining peace that needed to be addressed, and to develop a series of recommendations worth pursuing further. The High-Level Roundtable on Security Sector Reform and Sustaining Peace held on 23 April 2018 sought to build on important insights from these past events, as well as on the body of relevant policy and research that has been developed over the past year in the areas of sustaining peace and SSR.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peacekeeping, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, Europe, South Africa, United Nations, Slovakia, and United States of America

18. Opportunities and Challenges of Ensuring Stability in Kenya’s 2017 General Elections

Author:
Charles Nyuykonge and Nonjabulo Buhle Mazibuko
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
With Africa having steadily begun the litany of elections billed for 2017, the orderly manner in which Somalia’s elections took place restored a glimmer of hope in those who think only the worst for Africa’s democratic and electoral maturity. With over 20 elections scheduled to take place before December 2017, the African Union Commission (AUC) has identified potential fault lines across Kenya’s election processes, and those in Liberia, as sites for election-related violence. Accordingly, among other things, the AUC has trained approximately 50 long-term election observers to be deployed to Kenya, Liberia and other states – based on empirical evidence that these particular cases could be cause for concern. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines the prospect for a peaceful election in Kenya, and offers insights on what can be done to mitigate any possible election-related violence. With respect to the state of readiness of election management bodies (EMB), the Supreme Court and the government to deliver credible elections, this PPB examines and brings to light challenges that could potentially trigger election-related violence, with the view to make recommendations on how to mobilise key stakeholders to invest in supporting local and under utilised institutions or existing processes and practices capable of mitigating election-related violence. Some of these stakeholders are critical in ensuring the identification of conflict triggers, forewarning about them and preventing their escalation to national crises and conflict. Civil society organisations (CSOs), regional and international organisations should, in the build-up to the 8 August election, effectively co-ordinate their pre-assessment field visits to Kenya so as to identify potential options to avert the likelihood of election-related violence in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Liberia, and Somalia

19. In Defense of Democracy: Lessons from ECOWAS' Management of The Gambia's 2016 Post-Election Impasse

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The years 2015 and 2016 were crucial for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from the perspective of its efforts to ensure sustainable peace and stability in the region, through supporting the conduct of peaceful elections and the orderly transfer of power. A total of 10 of its 15 member states held elections in 2015 and 2016. ECOWAS has a rich history of managing political transitions and elections in the past 18 years, following the adoption of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-keeping and Security (referred to as “the mechanism”), as well as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines ECOWAS’ interventions around the electoral processes of its member states, with particular focus on its management of the 2016 post-election impasse in The Gambia. This highlights how effective a mediation process can be when mandates are grounded within institutions’ normative and legal instruments, and when international actors work in partnership with regional organisations with respect to the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages. The lessons from this intervention might therefore be relevant to other regional economic communities (RECs), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) in avoiding the pitfalls of working in silos or engaging in a multiplicity of interventions, which are often at cross-purposes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

20. Post-conflict Stabilization in Africa

Author:
Anke Hoeffler
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Post-conflict peace is fragile, about half of all conflicts break out again during the twelve post-conflict years. In Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. The data suggest that many operations start before the end of the armed conflict, thus they should be viewed as ‘peace preparation’ operations. The paper recommends the use of additional case studies, given that the small sample size prevents further quantitative examination of these important issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Economics, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus